The Wake County school system's market share of school-age children in the county shrunk this past school year to 82.9 percent.
Newly figures released indicate that for the 2009-10 school year, the school system had 139,599 of the county's estimated 168,384 students. This 82.9 percent figure is down from 83.3 percent in 2008-09.
You can calculate the market share because new statewide home school figures were released today. The number of registered home schools has doubled statewide in the past decade to 43,316.
Wake had 4,023 home schools with an estimated enrollment of 7,890 students in the 2009-10 school year. That's up from 3,771 home schools with an estimated 7,571 students in 2008-09.
Add 15,689 students in private schools, 5,206 in charter schools and 139,599 in the school district.
Wake's market share has been dropping since home schools and charter schools opened in the 1990s. Back then, the district's market share was over 90 percent of the county's students.
Members of the new school board majority have blamed the drop on the district's student assignment policies. They say that community-based schools will lure families, many of whom are middle class or affluent, back to the school system.
But supporters of the old diversity policy argue that the changes will lead to more families leaving the school system. They've cited Charlotte-Mecklenburg, where the market share is around 81 percent.

Comments
Did Anyone Read This?
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 14:03 — JanisTangoI saw this 'other view' in the paper today. I thought it was interesting...especially this quote from Obama.....
"Let me tell you, what's not working for black kids and Hispanic kids and Native American kids across this country is the status quo," Obama said. "What's not working is what we've been doing for decades now."
go to www. newsobserver.com / 2010/08/03/610667/why-not-real-change-in-education.html
I was hoping someone would
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 14:15 — woodstockI was hoping someone would bring that up. Very interesting quote. I know Obama is not directly referencing Wake County, but it is fitting. Some like to think WCPSS was innovative in its forced-busing approach to student assignment, but it was, in fact, the epitome of status quo thinking as it reflected an antiquated argument that has been systematically rejected across the nation over the past 30 years ...because it does not work!
If most of the country is
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 14:23 — danofncIf most of the country is NOT doing what WCPSS was doing, wouldn't that make what everyone else is doing the status quo?
...
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 14:47 — SideburnsRead the article first.
I read the
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 15:07 — danofncI read the article.
woodstock has often been told that he has been misusing the term "status quo" when it comes to WCPSS. Since he took a quote from Obama and applied it to his misinformed definition, I decided to ask a question about it.
I agree with some of the article, but not all of it. If charters had to provide transportation and lunch, they wouldn't be as cheap to operate. By not providing transportation, they are effectively eliminating the students who are most likely to struggle which means that their results aren't necessarily proof that their methods would work throughout the population. If your parents are involved enough to provide your lunch and transportation to school every day, you are likely to perform fairly well in school.
Builders are our friends -not
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 13:33 — user12345I knew that someday I would
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 18:23 — CaryCurmudgeonI knew that someday I would find something that I could agree with user12345 on. The Cary town council led by Glen Lang are to be commended for enacting this ordinance, even if it was eventually overturned by a 2-1 vote. I am sorely disappointed that the sitting county commissioners have not implemented this on a county-wide level, especially with only 1 of the four dems up for reelection. Of course, that could be the swing seat.
There are lots of winners with a school APFO. Current homeowners win because it drives up the cost of new houses, thus increasing the value of existing homes. Current homeowners also win because an APFO funds more of the infrastructure cost of growth through impact fees instead of property taxes. The losers are few. There may be a few people who cannot quite afford to pay that impact fee, even spread across a 30 year mortgage. And that would impact the development and construction sector.
So...
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 22:21 — Bob_SconceI've only skipped the opinion, but based on my first glance, the APFO was perfectly legal -- there's no problem with Cary saying "We won't approve your development unless the school system tells us they have the capacity for the kids who would live there." The illegal part was the second half ". . . OR you pay us a fee to build those schools."
My first pass on this is that it won't be particularly hard to get around -- a municipality simply needs to say "Nope. Not enough schools," after which the builders go to the school district and say "We'd like to donate a school in this area. And, out of couriosity, if we did that, do you think that there's be adequate space in the schools for this new development?"
I agree with you on impact fees, but I suspect that they'd be illegal for the same reason the Cary APFO ordinance was struck down. It seems to me that RIGHT NOW is the time to ask the GA for permission to enact impact fees -- the builders are weaker now than they've been in a long time and won't be able to mount as strong a fight as they have in the past.
There have been several
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 04:01 — jeffrey1There have been several instances in Cary where developers have offered to build a new school. However, when the developer found out that WCPSS would not guarantee that all the kids in the new homes they were building would be assigned to the new school, the offer was withdrawn.
Hi Jeff, I know about a
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 13:58 — CaryCurmudgeonHi Jeff,
I know about a couple of cases. In one, the developer was only asking that 30% of the school's seats be reserved for students from the development they were building. WCPSS said no. As tight as funding is these days, I would hope that this new board would be more open to these kinds of proposals.
How can anyone in their
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 23:46 — jeffrey1How can anyone in their right mind turn down $20 million? Especially when the developer only wanted 30% of the seats.
I am pretty confident that our current board would never say no to such a generous offer.
How can anyone turn it down?
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 08:28 — user12345How can anyone turn it down? .... let's say you don't need it where they want to build it? A HS costs $75M .... a $20M donation could easily be paid for by a premium tacked on to the developer's homes for exclusive access to the new school. So, you end up with a developer putting a $75M asset in a location that does not fit your plan which costs you $50M you did not want to spend but will have to live with for 100 years? (e.g. Broughton) and the developer breaks even by securing a 2 for 1 match from taxpayers.
In this case, the
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 15:15 — jeffrey1In this case, the development was a couple thousand new homes - I think it's obvious that the district is going to need a new school in the area.
The premise was the builder
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 08:51 — woodstockThe premise was the builder pays for the school, not contributes to its construction. Also, it does NOT take $75M -- or anything even close to that -- to build a high school. One of the newest high schools in Wake County, Panther Creek, cost $32M.
Cost by Project: http://www.schoolclearinghouse.org/costinfo/CostsByProject.pdf
check again
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 11:22 — user12345So it's OK for the county to
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 07:57 — danofncSo it's OK for the county to make moves to affect property values and business income, it's just a matter of where the property is located?
I've often seen references that this or that was done just to "protect Raleigh", and I always thought it was a bad thing.
Now, a builder offers to build a school at "cost" (which would NOT save $20 million dollars.....I doubt very seriously that a 24-26 million dollar school has $20 million in profit), and the district was crazy not to do it. Nevermind the fact that most homebuilders don't really have much (if any) experience building schools.
Why is it OK for the builder and any homeowners to have these value-increasing guarantees? What makes this situation different?
No, the builder did not
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 15:13 — jeffrey1No, the builder did not offer to build the school at cost. THE BUILDER OFFERED TO BUILD A NEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL - No Cost to the district. That's $20 million the school passed up.
What neighborhood? If we're
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 15:39 — danofncWhat neighborhood?
If we're going to a choice model now, how would allowing this guarantee have impacted that? Guarantees are dangerous, especially in a fluid environment.
Also, how can a 2000 home community be served by 30% of an elementary school?
I Heard This As Well..
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 05:53 — JanisTangoand it's so frustrating. I also heard some developers offered to build the school at cost with that same request and the school board said no way!
Builders are our friends-Not
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 14:14 — Duhhuh666Based on your comment about builders you must not live in a house. Or was it OK to build your home but not someone elses?
Cary went forward with this program knowing it was not legal or on shaky legal ground. They hoped builders would pay the fee and keep quite. The courts thought other wise.
I think the newbies have
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 09:32 — user12345I think the newbies have started a stampede as people who understand that they may be designated a "bad" school because they did not donate enough or "zoning" will cause a lot of turmoil. Since the newbies are spending money on new lawyers, moving schools and passing up saving opportunities like modifying the bell schedule (e.g. interfere with Goldman's daughter's dance class) it is likely classes will getting larger and class selection smaller under the newbies. We needed a pro-academic team and got an anti-diversity one.
Stampede?
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 09:49 — CaryCurmudgeonWell I'll tell ya, pilgrim, any stampede on the range has nothing to do with the new school board. The market share measurements were taken before the new sherriffs ever took office.
Just wait. The stampede
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 13:07 — virginiadareJust wait. The stampede has already started and will accelerate. I wouldn't be surprised if many, many homes ITB and on the rim were put on the market last week when the sample maps were put out and people began to realize what the new zones would mean for their school assignments. When middle class parents in higher poverty zones see what their schools will look like, they will move or leave the system for private, charter, or home schools. The spriral down will continue as they realize that choice for them in their zones is just an illusion. (Alves even said controlled choice will fail if the zones are not equal as far as socio-economic levels, but the board majority has said that will not be a consideration in creating the zones.) There will be no incentives great enough to lure affluent and middle class parents to magnet schools in high poverty zones, as schools in all the zones will be allowed to offer whatever their parents can afford to provide. Revitalized neighborhoods in the inner city will deteriorate as parents of school-aged children leave for the good schools in the suburbs. Pockets of decay will expand, with affluent suburban areas surrounding a donut hole of poverty, just like all the other good-sized metropolitan areas in the nation, returning Wake County to the real status quo that we have so far managed to escape. F&R numbers in the school system will increase from about 30% to over half, like in Mecklenburg County. Suburbanites won't care because they will have their shiny new schools with affluent parents and special programs. They won't see or worry about the poor students, who will be warehoused -- User is right -- in their own high-poverty schools. The Wake County Taxpayers Association will continue to promote underfunding the system, so the poor schools won't be able to afford the programs to help the neediest students.
I wish someone could explain to me how this scenario is not inevitable considering the direction the new board majority is taking us. It will not only destroy our school system, it will destroy our Wake County community.
Dead spot on VaDare
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 00:29 — bluedaisyIt will take only 1, maybe 2 years for parents to polarize themselves.What the newer 'burbs don't understand is their companies moved here partly because of the healthy schools, and what beautiful downtown RALEIGH has to offer. When growth stops, and their companies cannot recruit workers here, and they bug out taking you with them, who are you going to sell your beautiful suburban Holly Springs home to? Char Meck is CLOSING 10 schools this year. Union County is growing. Call a Charlotte Realtor, and ask them how the schools are.
Raleigh is beautiful, it is
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 05:42 — red_balloonRaleigh is beautiful, it is diverse, and companies are moving in there. I don't know about you, but it seems Raleigh is a wonderful destination for those loving diversity or 'diversity'. Surely it will continue to thrive while the suburbs polarize and devolve into chaos.
Couple of Points: Wake is
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 04:29 — jeffrey1Couple of Points:
Wake is not Mecklenberg. Why does everyone insist on comparing WCPSS to CMS? F&R rate in CMS is 50%, and less than 30% in WCPSS. Might we have a handful of schools that reach 80% poverty under a zone assignment policy? Perhaps, but we'll provide those schools with the resources they need to succeed, instead of hiding those kids in the suburbs.
We're home to 3 prominent universities. The advantage of locating a business in RTP is that companies can employ the highly-educated local work force and be proximate to the research being conducted by the state’s research universities. None of that changes when WCPSS goes to a zone assignment model.
When those families "bug out," where are they going to go? Durham County? Orange County? Johnston County? Chatham County? Durham has 53% F&R. Orange has 35%. Johnston has 40%, Chatham has 47%
Here's a list of large school districts that are comparable to WCPSS in terms of F&R rate. None of them bus for diversity. If you can show me that any of these parts of the country have suffered because of their school assignments, then we might have something to worry about.
Fairfax County Public Schools
Montgomery County Public Schools
Cobb County Public Schools
Cypress-Fairbanks Independent School District
Brevard County School District
Virginia Beach City Public Schools
Prince William County Public Schools
Seminole County School District
Plano Independent School District
Wake WILL BE Mecklenburg
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 08:58 — virginiadareWake WILL BE Mecklenburg once we have disparate zones. I don't have time to look up the exact figures, but the poverty levels of Wake and Meck are similar. It's the F&R percentages in the school systems that are different, and Wake's will soon be over half, just like Meck, when middle class parents who are assigned to those high poverty schools start leaving.
?
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 10:55 — Bob_SconceMecklenburg wasn't Wake before they got rid of their busing program.
But it was very similar,
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 11:48 — virginiadareBut it was very similar, probably more similar to Wake than any other district. The white (or middle-class) flight began AFTER the return to neighborhood schools, as middle-class families who would have been assigned to high poverty schools left. The tipping point is about 50-60% . Here is what conservative analyst Tara Servatius from Mecklenberg County had to say:
A massive rejection of CMS has occurred over the last decade by middle-class and white parents. Now just 33 percent of CMS students are white and half are now poor, as black and white middle-class parents flee to surrounding counties. That's a staggering 25-percentage point drop in just 11 years. When you consider that 61 percent of the county is white and less than a third of the county is poor, this is an indictment of the school system that goes far beyond racial and class lines. It is a flat-out rejection of an inferior public education product.
If our school system merely reflected the racial and poverty demographics of the county, our schools would be both strong and diverse. Instead, our school board so alienated parents and teachers that it sparked white flight that population demographics alone can't explain.
These parents didn't leave the school system, but rather never showed up in the first place. While people of all races and income levels continue to move to Mecklenburg County, those with children, an interest in public schools and the means to do so are choosing to live outside the county -- or they are leaving once their children approach school age, attracted by schools in surrounding counties with higher test scores and better teachers. That's why the number of white/non-poor students in the county school system each year has remained largely the same over the last seven years while CMS' overall population has boomed.
Meanwhile, thousands of new middle class students now show up at schools in surrounding counties each year, pushing these systems to the limit. This flight has also sucked CMS' best teachers over the county line and led to massive traffic congestion problems as parents seeking quality teachers and high-scoring schools get in their cars each morning and drive back in to the county to work.
OK, let's get some facts
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 23:43 — jeffrey1OK, let's get some facts straight.
It's true that most whites moving into the area are choosing the suburbs. And it's also true, that the surrounding counties are growing quickly.
However, Charlotte has a growing minority population. It does not have white flight.
According to the Brookings Institute, Charlotte is becoming a hispanic destination city. Nearly 50,000 hispanics have moved to Charlotee in the past 10 years. 10 years ago, hispanics made up less that 2% of all students in CMS. Today, they make up 14% of all students.
Also, from 2000-2008, nearly 100,00 additional African Americans moved to Charlotte.
And ready for this: According to the Brookings Institue, Charlotte is also a top destination city for whites, ranking 6th in nation for white influx, with 150,000 whites moving into the area over the past decade.
From the report:
This is why Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools had a 58 percent white population in 1998, but is 33 percent white now. The number of white students hasn't declined in our schools. It just hasn't grown in a decade that saw a boom in Hispanic and African-American children.
So before you cry "Chicken Little," check the facts: there is no white flight in Charlotte.
I am not sure why you left
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 02:01 — magnetParentI am not sure why you left out some of this part of the article, but here it is:
"What's changing the face of the Charlotte so dramatically is that African-Americans and Hispanics are relocating to the city of Charlotte and its suburbs. Whites who locate here choose the suburbs in the towns outside the city of Charlotte and have also moved in large numbers to the counties around Mecklenburg.
This is why Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools had a 58 percent white population in 1998, but is 33 percent white now. The number of white students hasn't declined in our schools. It just hasn't grown in a decade that saw a boom in Hispanic and African-American children. While the white population at CMS stagnated, school districts in the surrounding counties added tens of thousands of white children.
It's a pattern that looks like white flight -- and may eventually turn into that -- but for now is more akin to racial "self-segregation.""
oh... and the link:
http://charlotte.creativeloafing.com/gyrobase/what_will_a_growing_minority_population_mean_for_charlotte_/Content?oid=953620
I am not sure why you left
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 03:36 — jeffrey1I am not sure why you left out some of this part of the article, but here it is:
I guess its a matter of
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 05:38 — magnetParentI guess its a matter of interpretation. "It's a pattern that looks like white flight -- and may eventually turn into that -- but for now is more akin to racial "self-segregation".
Call it racial "self-segregation". I call it pockets of high poverty that becomes schools of high poverty (not race, but poverty).
The statement "While the white population at CMS stagnated, school districts in the surrounding counties added tens of thousands of white children" kind of backs up virginia's "-- or they are leaving once their children approach school age, attracted by schools in surrounding counties with higher test scores and better teachers."
So WCPSS has dropped 18% whites in the same time frame as CMS dropping 25% whites. How is WCPSS rates faster?
All of which makes Charlotte a destination city when it comes to diversity
So Charlotte is diverse, but is Mecklenburg County? With the white flight away from the city and into the burbs, I think not. This is Wake County's future.
Call it racial
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 15:24 — jeffrey1Call it racial "self-segregation". I call it pockets of high poverty that becomes schools of high poverty (not race, but poverty).
The statement "While the white population at CMS stagnated, school districts in the surrounding counties added tens of thousands of white children" kind of backs up virginia's "-- or they are leaving once their children approach school age, attracted by schools in surrounding counties with higher test scores and better teachers."
So WCPSS has dropped 18% whites in the same time frame as CMS dropping 25% whites. How is WCPSS rates faster?
So Charlotte is diverse, but is Mecklenburg County? With the white flight away from the city and into the burbs, I think not. This is Wake County's future.
No matter what you call it,
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 22:03 — virginiadareNo matter what you call it, whites are avoiding CMS, since the change to neighborhood schools. Read the piece again, from Tara Servatius:
"These parents didn't leave the school system, but rather never showed up in the first place. While people of all races and income levels continue to move to Mecklenburg County, those with children, an interest in public schools and the means to do so are choosing to live outside the county -- or they are leaving once their children approach school age, attracted by schools in surrounding counties with higher test scores and better teachers. That's why the number of white/non-poor students in the county school system each year has remained largely the same over the last seven years while CMS' overall population has boomed."
The change in WCPSS assignment policies will also change the demographics in Raleigh and the higher poverty zones, as it has in Mecklenberg County, to the detriment of the county as a whole. No one has been able to explain why this new zone model will not inevitably lead to a donut hole of decay and poverty in inner-city Raleigh, surrounded by affluent suburbs. It is obvious that the new board members and the people who voted in the last school board election just don't care. They will have their affluent schools and will no longer have to deal with very many poor, underachieving students.
Jeffrey, can you get the
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 12:36 — user12345Jeffrey, can you get the facts straight? You seem too smart to miss the concept of considering diversity when Fairfax makes assignments and how a kid gets to school (bus, walk, car) are different .... you make it seem like Fairfax is color and income blind .... pro-diversity folks want race and income "considered" when putting together assignments so we don't end up the extreme in either.
"Here's a list of large school districts that are comparable to WCPSS in terms of F&R rate. None of them bus for diversity."
"They open a new school, they have to re-draw boundaries. One of the factors they consider in redrawing the boundaries is the F&R rate and ESL rate of the neighborhoods. "
That's not busing for
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 23:24 — jeffrey1That's not busing for diversity. There is a huge difference between busing for diversity and drawing boundary lines. In the Supreme Court case involving the Louisville and Seattle school districts, the court distinguished between the two.
Fairfax? 21%
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 06:47 — magnetParentGreatschools lists Fairfax F&R at 21%.
That being said, here is an interesting article about some of the instability of Fairfax neighborhood schools:
http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/article.asp?article=322466&paper=66&cat=104
A couple of interesting points:
They open a new school, they have to re-draw boundaries. One of the factors they consider in redrawing the boundaries is the F&R rate and ESL rate of the neighborhoods. Despite their efforts, they have a wide disparity in F&R rates between schools - some at 4%, and some at over 60%. I'm sure there are more specific facts, but this is just what you can pull out of this news article (and I am limited in time right now).
questions
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 13:58 — loriacLet me make sure I understand - people buy a home ITB in a diverse section of town, but they will sell their houses if their kids have to go to school w/ their neighbors' kids? You mean they only bought houses ITB with the assumption that the poor kids would be shipped out and they'd have the magnet schools to themselves and the rich suburbanites? Are these the same people who support 'diversity'?
Just sayin'....
They support diversity (of
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 15:08 — red_balloonThey support diversity (of academic offerings).
...
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 14:44 — Sideburns"...they only bought houses ITB with the assumption that the poor kids would be shipped out..."
I think that's called the Meeker Doctrine.
yup, that be them!
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 14:04 — AngelaWyup, that be them!
More real estate and magnet
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 13:24 — red_balloonMore real estate and magnet woes. Someday we will figure out the true purpose of a school.
Just one
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 00:48 — g88ky07Can you find just one thing you like about the new board VA?
I didn't think so.
Please don't confuse User
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 12:10 — Duhhuh666Please don't confuse User with facts...
facts
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 13:02 — user12345So, the newbies did not spend money on another lawyer, did not move a school location, and did not turn down a money saving bell schedule?
What on earth do those
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 13:06 — CaryCurmudgeonWhat on earth do those things have to do with people leaving the school system? Did you forget to take your ginko biloba again today?
But where are the quotes?
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 02:04 — nancyncIn the last of the blog is
Members of the new school board majority have blamed the drop on the district's student assignment policies. They say that community-based schools will lure families, many of whom are middle class or affluent, back to the school system.
But supporters of the old diversity policy argue that the changes will lead to more families leaving the school system. They've cited Charlotte-Mecklenburg, where the market share is around 81 percent.
I for one would like to see quotes, what was actually said and by whom.
And when those remarks were made would be most helpful to.
Margiotta and Tedesco have
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 08:44 — KeungHui (author)Margiotta and Tedesco have often talked about improving the school distirict's market share. Click the market share tag in the blog. The Great Schools in Wake Coaltion has repeatedly argue that Wake would become like Charlotte, where the percentage of middle class families has dropped since the end of busing for diversity.
growth + increased acceptance of home schooling
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 00:34 — prescott2Don't really see these numbers as damning evidence of a failed assignment policy. Factoring in substantial increases in home schooling resources and organizations, advent of charter schools, then normalizing numbers for immigration and blistering growth seem to be the major contributors here. Several national organizations made home schooling a less daunting option. People homeschool for all types of reasons- religious, personal philosophy, medical reasons. I think the new board members are jumping to conclusions and grasping at straws. As professional education managers one would think the board would dig a little deeper.