The school district has lowered its projected enrollment by 1,196 students for this fall.
As noted in today's article, Wake now projects it will have 139,247 students, a net gain of 5,245 kids this fall. That's down from the official projection of 140,443 students.
This could have an impact on this year's budget as county commissioners put $3 million in a reserve fund that can only be used if enrollment meets projections. Wake's state funding could also be impacted.
How the new figures, following last year's enrollment shortfall, affect the planning for the new bond issue remains to be seen.
Click here to see school-by-school projections from March.
Click here to see school-by-school projections from June.
Comments
Not MORE missed projections ...
Wed, 07/16/2008 - 20:55 — g88ky07See what happens when you take a week off and try to cram a summer into a matter of moments, they miss projections again!
And by a bunch! AGAIN!!!!!
That's the last time we take 1o minutes and leave town!!!
the irony is the
Wed, 07/16/2008 - 21:07 — bigwinniethe irony is the "miscalculation" of both last time and now equals about 3,000 the SAME amount that was the cause of the "demand" for space that amounted to converting 22 schools to MYR to accomodate those numbers......so where are they again? oh that's right, THEY NEVER SHOWED UP and yet we still have converted MYR schools, under-enrolled, over-enrolled, Traditionals bursting at the seams....when will it end?
http://raleigh.mync.com/site/
Tue, 07/15/2008 - 19:58 — bigwinniehttp://raleigh.mync.com/site/raleigh/news/story/5321/wake_county_school_board_adopts_budget
http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/3211559/
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/s
Tue, 07/15/2008 - 19:55 — bigwinniehttp://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6266317
What strike me most....
Tue, 07/15/2008 - 07:23 — CitizenmomProjecting future student enrollment with precision may indeed be tricky business. However, what strkes me is looking at the the spreadsheets and seeing the striking disparities in crowding percentages and FRL percentages from one school to another and recognizing that these disparities are not flukes.
The BOE and Mr. Dulaney's office, year after year, claim the goal of diversifying the schools and yet year after year allow some schools to house low FRL percentages (@12%) while others house percentages far in excess of the stated goal (60%+).
Furthermore last year they requested two hundred waivers for classes exceeding the limits established by the state and the reassignment plan does not reflect attempts to correct the problem.
Also, some schools are operating far beyond capacity while others are operating far below, and this has been happening for years.
It is one thing to write off systemwide faulty projections to changed economic conditions, it is another to continue to repeat failures to use resources and meet goals allowing some schools to face year after year over crowding while others are underutilized year over year and/or year over year allow huge disparities in FRL populations while boasting the success of their diversity policy.
What exactly is an
Mon, 07/14/2008 - 21:03 — Anonymous (not verified)What exactly is an application school?
part of the magnet school
Tue, 07/15/2008 - 06:43 — bigwinniepart of the magnet school process
Too big, regardless of slower growth
Sat, 07/12/2008 - 07:21 — CitizenmomQuoting the article: "Under the new projections, Wake would have 139,247 students this fall. That could move Wake past school systems in San Diego and Montgomery County, Md., to become the 17th-largest district in the nation."
The sheer size of the Wake County Public School System, is too large (even with slowing growth).
Enrollment/YR Make Up
Sat, 07/12/2008 - 07:15 — wakepI think more people are pulling their kids out and putting them in private schools and I think that Dulaney doesn't know his ankle from his elbow when it comes to projections. I also wonder if they "fudged" the numbers to justify the YR conversions - explain something to me if anyone can the teachers who teach in YR when do they get their days off? I mean it would seem to me that they are always teaching unless I'm not understanding the YR schedule - if so are they compensated appropriately for the extra days they work? If they are doesn't that mean that the cost of teachers not to mention the cost of keeping a school open 365 days a year would be costing the district more and more money in salaries? Confused
Costs...
Sat, 07/12/2008 - 07:53 — CitizenmomThe classroom teachers follow the schedule of the track they are assigned to, plus the workdays assigned to them. Special teachers, media center staff and so forth operate on tracks different from the four established for students and thus in theory overlap on all tracks taking their vacations at other times during the school year.
For some teachers who had summer jobs on the traditional schedule, the year round schedule presents a challenge to supplementing their income with such summer employment. Some teachers used summers to attend college and further their education, working toward higher level degrees.
The cost savings sold to the public for multitrack year round were to come from reducing the need to contruct more schools. By being able to use existing buildings to accomodate up to thirty percent more students per building, the system could avoid the cost of constructing schools. Thus although the operation of the multitrack year round costs more each year, in theory it saves money versus constructing schools to house the students on the traditional calendar. Quoting the WCPSS website "For every three schools on a multi-track year-round calendar, that's one school you don't have to build."
When theory and reality fail to meet the multitrack year round system costs more. What the system is finding is that without the power to force parents to send their children to these schools, or the willingness to open the seats made available when parents opt out to those who might volunteer for the seats, actually gaining the cost savings doesn't happen.
Funding for schools to employ teachers and staff is based on "months of employment" allotments determined by the number of students in the school. A school is given funding for months of employment some of which is restricted on what type of teachers and staff must be employed will others are coded to allow some flexibility.
teachers track out when
Sat, 07/12/2008 - 07:49 — bigwinnieteachers track out when their students do. They return 2 or 3 days before track-in, but they are out almost the same amount of three weeks as the kids. Now the rest of the staff however.....they seem to be there always, they are on what is referred to as Tracks 5, 6, 7 etc...and they never get to leave.
transportation costs doubled from July 06 to July 07 with the 22 conversions to MYR, utilities have risen as well. OH and those transportation costs were even BEFORE the outrageous price of diesel fuel...so can't imagine what it must be costing now even. There is no way to justify YR as cost-effective.
Please explain to me...
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 15:00 — NWRaleighMomCan anyone explain to me how specialty teachers' time are being allocated? I was told that each school gets certain instructional time based on a number of students in school. Then it is up to the principals how to divide this time for foreign language, art, drama, etc. Is ESL instruction included in this or does it rather it come from separate funding? What about literacy coaches/reading specialists?
in reference to YR or
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 15:59 — bigwinniein reference to YR or Trad?? ESL's are supposed to be at EVERY school now, funded by WCPSS was my understanding. as far as Litercy/reading specialist/AG, etc...I think that is a school by school deal and/or schools SHARE that resource, for example, a school nurse is actually split between schools on a rotating three week basis.
is this what you mean?
I think you are right about
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 17:16 — NWRaleighMomI think you are right about ESL. It's coming out of WCPSS budget.
I can understand when principal may not hire Spanish teacher but get Music/Drama instructor.
What about literacy/reading? Can school principal not hire specialty teacher and hire extra literacy specialist instead?
My concern is that principals from high F&R and LEP % schools may be tempted to hire extra literacy/reading instructors to the expense of the students who don't need that kind of services but won't be getting Spanish, Drama, etc.
How many more seats is in a YR ES school vs Trad?
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 13:48 — shearertwCan anyone tell me how many more seats (on a percentage basis) is supposed to be gained by going YR?
How off were the projections last year? Wasn't it over estimated by about 2,000?
I don't have serious concerns with the district overestimating as Bob mentions above, but how are we going to adjust now? People are sacrificing unnecessarily and its time to readjust. They'll at least fall by 3 more when I likely pull my kids out next year.
From my
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 15:24 — Anonymous (not verified)From my understanding,
If you use the year round calendar to its most efficient use, you would be able to accomodate 1/3 more students at each school.
You have 4 classes in a school with 3 sets of rooms (3 classes are in school, while the 4th is out of school on a 3 week vacation).
Re: How many more seats...
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 15:20 — Bob_SconceIn theory, a year round school can handle 1/3 more students -- three tracks take as much space a full traditional school and there are four tracks.
In reality, it isn't quite that easy. For example, if you have 5 classrooms, you can have a total of 6 classes across 4 tracks (a 2-2-1-1 distribution is the most you can get without having 6 classes at a time.)
There are other considerations -- track 2, for example, is unpopular, and it may end up to be difficult to assign people to that track (they may withdraw YR consent and go tradtiional, for example.)
And then there are situations where the conversion apparently happens just to reduce existing overcrowding -- Wakefield ES's enrollment across 4 tracks is lower than its traditional enrollment was.
Last year's estimates were high also -- your 2000 number sounds about right; that overestimate was actually part of the commissioner's rationale for withholding money this year. (I wonder what the effect this year's overestimate will have. I suspect that it means some of the money held in reserve won't actually get allocated.)
Estimates of student population
Sun, 07/13/2008 - 12:57 — Elect_StanNWhether the school boards estimate is high or low is not all that critical and mis-estimates are to be expected.
I have had over 20 years of making estimates of sales and profits in the corporate world. At times of economic dislocations its almost impossible for estimates to be correct. Look at the corporate world and you will find tons of mis-estimates.
Kids are moving out of the system but kids are also moving in from charter, private and religious schools. Often these moves involve dissatisfaction with a limited range of courses. Also consider the lack of busing in charter schools, especially if both parents are working or in lower income homes, where there is only one car. The parents of kids who have been home schooled might have to go back to work. My expectation is that the inflow will be larger in the next year or two due to the recession.
Why is a misestimate not that critical? There are 23,000 seats in trailers or other temporary facilities. Trailers cost double to heat and cool compared to conventional schools. They cost more to maintain...all these costs compete with optional enrichment courses such as foreign languages, AG courses. Over the past five years the number of seats in trailers etc. has almost doubled. As the amount supplied by schoool bonds was insufficient to meet the growth + approx. 70% inflation in construction costs. As growth patterns change you wind up moving trailers. Moving one trailer is = in cost to one teacher. Schools with too many trailers are unsafe and are capped, resulting in more reassignments. So an underestimate may allow fewer trailers...Hurray! Or it may provide the excuse for some commissioners to cut the amount of the next school bond or to cut school operating costs which are already $30,000 per year per classroom below the national average. Read: there goes foreign languages, more AG courses, more IB schools.
One thing not widely known, is that before the budget is prepared there is an agreement on the underlying assumptions, e.g. growth in student population, between the BOC and the BOE. And whaen the estimate falls short does the BOC say WE mis-estimated? Mis-estimates are a fact of life - its how you react to them that counts.
Also cuts state money
Mon, 07/14/2008 - 10:36 — Bob_SconceThe lion's share of the district's budget comes from the State. When enrollment numbers don't go up as predicted, the State portion, based on enrollment, is also affected.
Mis-estimate critical in this case
Sun, 07/13/2008 - 16:46 — jeffrey1WCPSS disrupted the lives of 17,000 students and their families when they converted 22 schools to YR this school year. The stated goal of this conversion was to gain an additional 3000 seats - seats that WCPSS claimed could not be found anywhere else. With this year's estimate more than 2000 under projections, and next year's estimate more than 1000 under projections, we can officially declare that the conversion of those 22 schools was unnecessary. You don't make that kind of decision, and impact that many families, unless you are certain.
WCPSS erred in their estimates by using past enrollment growth to predict future enrollment growth. A simple look at the economy, and the housing markets in other parts of the country would have easily predicted a slowdown in enrollment growth. You don't move to Wake County, when you can't sell your home in California.
student population estimates and MYRS
Mon, 07/14/2008 - 14:29 — Elect_StanNJeffrey1
Here http://www.newsobserver.com/content/media/2007/11/21/dejong.doc you will find the report from the demographer-consultant who put together the student population estimates. Right or wrong the results were not plucked out of mid-air. All reports of this type I have seen typically contain the disclaimer of not being able to predict economic surprises and disruptions.
That said, I would like to see the phase down of Mandatory YRS. What ever the true capacity gained by YRS, they have split the Wake Community and lessened support for WCPSS. A public school system can't exist, no less thrive, without public support.
But phasing down MYRS is not going to be an easy task. Some added cost for new capacity to replace the capacity gained by YRS will be required and today that means a property tax increase...which many will resist.
Also remember that the defeat of the next school bond in 2009, called for by some on this blog, will only add to the pressure for more YRS's, or trailers or some other way of adding capacity with minimal added construction costs. The BOC is almost 100% responsible for school construction costs. More trailers will add to more busing and reassignments.
So all of us are between a rock and a hardspot when it comes to choosing between difficult, unpopular alternatives.
We need better class-room education support form the BOC and the NCGA.
We need more bricks and mortar. Even the reduced estimate by the BOE calls for >$150 million/yr. in new construction...not to mention renovation of older schools.
What are your prioties between education and construction??
It's taken two decades of chronic under-funding to get to this position and improvements will not come over night.
All the improvements can't be born by by the property tax and existing citizens. Remember that 70% of the taxpayers don't have kids in school. The best answer I have is a school impact fee, a large part of which will fall to new residents and businesses.
Any comments or constructive solutions you have would be appreciated.
StanN
stann@nc.rr.com
22 Schools Converted for Diversity
Sun, 07/13/2008 - 20:31 — Anonymous (not verified)SPOT ON JeffreyOne.
Make no mistake. This entire two-year cluster frolic was a socio-political "overcalculation" to expand diversity (busing) and nothing less.
Call a spade, a spade.
Leesville elementary is a
Mon, 07/14/2008 - 16:41 — bigwinnieLeesville elementary is a prime example that it was strictly for diversity. Chuck Dulaney stated that he wanted to raise the F&R% to match "surrounding" schools. PERIOD.
When we went MYR, our population dropped to the point of not needing grade levels on certain tracks, etc...we gave our trailers to the high school up the road, or the TRADITIONAL high school PHYSICALLY ATTACHED to the TRADITIONAL MIDDLE SCHOOL and thus the elementary.
To combat the low numbers (most of whom were fell into the F&R% category who opted out because it was TOO FAR AWAY and they DIDN'T WANT YEAR ROUND) ole chuck CHANGED Leesville to an application school thus now putting on target to be the LARGEST elementary in WCPSS (lots of Green YR and Jeffrey's Grove students coming in), and thus ensuring the fact that they cannot (or will not) ever convert back to Traditional, and then will use as an argument to convert Leesville Middle to YR as well.
It's pre-determined and any and all "public" meetings are pointless and fruitless.
Not a big surprise
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 12:48 — Bob_SconceI disagree with those who find fault with the district in this. We are getting fewer people moving in because (1) the economy is slow (thus, fewer new jobs are being created in the area) and (2) with the housing crunch, people would rather stay in their current houses than try to sell in this market so they could move to Raleigh.
The district's projections are just that -- projections and should not be expected to be absolutely correct. When underlying conditions change, of course they'll be off.
This does, however, show the difficulty of making accurate projections about enrollment. Because enrollment is hard to predict, the district should plan extra capacity, in case its projections end up being too low.
How many kids are they losing to homeschool/private school?
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 12:44 — fiestamomI would love to know the real numbers of how many kids they lose to homeschool/private school every year. I think the last year they have released is 2005.
It's interesting that with all the number crunchers (that we pay for) down at HQ, 2005 is the latest year. /s
Losing Kids to Home School/Private School
Tue, 07/22/2008 - 08:49 — Anonymous (not verified)Fiestamom,
I would also like to know how many kids they are losing to home school and private school. I know that, in my neighborhood, there are 5 students within about 3 blocks who are going to private school next year.
In all of the cases, it was prompted by the disruption that MYR caused for families and communities. All of the families have a child entering high school in the fall and could not have their children on different calendars.
Not about capacity
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 11:59 — SideburnsThe BoE will never convert schools back to a traditional calendar - even if Rosa says they might consider it. They needed to diversify the schools in Western Wake and, in order to do so, they converted them to YR and started busing in kids from other areas to take the newly created seats.
That's unbelievable...
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 11:10 — Anonymous (not verified)That's unbelievable... Hilburn elementary(Trad) - 43% F&R, closest (YR) Leesville - 25% and Sycamore Creek - 14%
Change Sycamore Creek to Trad
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 13:43 — NWRaleighMomI am sure changing Sycamore Creek to Traditional and/or unconverting Leesville will help with balancing out F&R % in neighboring schools. Leesville and Hilburn are within walking distance, Sycamore Creek is less than 2 miles away.
and "they" say YR is
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 12:11 — Anonymous (not verified)and "they" say YR is preferred....go figure.....
The Economy
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 09:05 — Anonymous (not verified)I can say without a doubt that econonmy plays a small factor as to why the schools are not growing.We moved here in late 2005.My husband lost his job 4 months later and has been unable to find work locally in the technology field.The only reason we have not moved away is our daughter is waiting to graduate in 2009.With so many graduation requirements one can not move from state to state with a high schooler.So if my husband is having a hard time finding work that would mean fewer people are moving here because they can't find jobs here either. I just hope the school board doesn't use the economy as an excuse for the smaller growth and not try to fix the schools . My brother in law wanted to move here from Ohio and I talked him out of coming here just so he would not have to put his children in any WCPSS school.
Not growing
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 08:54 — Tammy (not verified)It doesn't surprise me that the system is not growing as much as they thought.People are getting smart enough to realize that WCPSS is not all that great.
I think every year the schools will get lower and lower untiil they get rid of year round,over crowding ,busing and have neighborhood schools.
how many times
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 08:53 — Anonymous (not verified)how many times will they be allowed to get the numbers wrong to the detriment of the entire school system??? With 1/2 the population attending YR because of "unprecedented" growth, growth that HAS NOT materialized, how is this not 1) fraudulent 2) a flat out lie 3)"cooking the books" to gain more state funds....all of the above?? and now willing to "deal", pass the bond=we'll "consider" converting back? it's the South's version of the Mafia, the school board Mafia.
In ANY case, the public should be outraged over these continued falsifications.....why they are not is dumbfounding...because even all those folks without children in the schools are paying and paying and paying...when will they see that? without even taxes being raised, (their worst nightmares) they are STILL paying.....such short-sightedness is actually a country-wide epidemic, therefor shouldn't be so surprising here in Wake, I suppose.
Kindergarten and Highschool
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 08:46 — NCBoyMommy"Wilson said Dulaney told them school officials expected fewer children to enter kindergarten and high school this fall."
So parents are putting their Kindergarterners in private schools and their Highschoolers are dropping out or going private. If they are seeing the big shortfalls in those two groups that tells me that the shortfall is not due to the economy and people not moving to the area. It's due to people deciding to pursue alternatives to WCPSS.
Which YR schools will be returned to traditional?
Fri, 07/11/2008 - 08:25 — shearertwOK BOE....So combined with last years "underenrollment", how many and which YR schools will you now convert back to traditional?