The enrollment projections are being lowered again in the face of the national economic meltdown.
At today's joint meeting, school and county staff say that, for budgeting purposes, they're projecting enrollment this fall at 140,012 students. That would be a gain of 2,306 students, the smallest increase since 1990.
The growth is so much slower this fall because of the economy and a new state law that says students must turn age 5 by Aug. 31 to attend kindergarten.
Pushing it out to 2018, the budgeting enrollment projection has Wake at 190,180 students.
Asst. Supt. Chuck Dulaney said this was a conservative projection because they want to avoid being in a position, such as this year, where enrollment came in much lower than projected. This forces teachers to change schools and possibly lose their jobs.
School and county staff also introduced a second set of projections today that they say should be used for school building programs. Under this system, it has Wake at 206,659 students in 2018.
Dulaney said you don't want to be too conservative when it comes to determining how many schools are needed.
Still, both projections are lower than the ones used for the current building program that had Wake at 216,538 students in 2018.
Click here for the new projections, which include a brief description of the methodology. Click here for the 2005 projections.
Since I know some of you are probably asking, Rosa Gill, chairwoman of the school board, said the new projections aren't a reason to change year-round plans. She said they still need the capacity now.
"We see no reason now to change our year-round plans," Gill said after today's joint meeting.
The change could come after the state Supreme Court finally rules on the year-round lawsuit.
Comments
MYR Doesn't Work
Thu, 02/19/2009 - 01:07 — CaryCurmudgeonFor those of you who have already realized that MYR doesn't work, you are not alone. Here is a list of school districts all across the country who concluded the same thing:
http://www.summermatters.com/rejects.htm
interesting tidbit....(with NO cost savings known to MYR now)
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 21:40 — AngelaWhttp://www.ncpublicschools.org/docs/accountability/evaluation/evalbriefs/vol2n2-yr.pdf
Results
After controlling for possible effects due to district, grade level, gender, ethnicity, parental
education level, prior achievement and average school-level achievement, there were no significant
achievement differences between year-round and traditional calendar students in either reading (F = 0.91,
p < .48) or math (F = 0.89, p < .85). Neither group appeared to perform any better than the other between
the 1996-97 and 1997-98 school years (Figure 1).
Previous research on year-round education suggests that students in year-round schools will
perform as well as or better than their traditional calendar counterparts. The results reported here do not
imply any clear advantage or disadvantage to year-round education with respect to student achievement in
reading and math. Although increased achievement is often touted as a benefit of year-round education,
the results of the current investigation would suggest that the utility of year-round education should
probably be judged instead on cost savings, stakeholder preferences, and other factors. If year-round
education can result in more positive outcomes in non-academic areas while being at least neutral in terms
of student achievement, then it may be a desirable option in many circumstances.
What Happened To Common Sense?
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 21:05 — Lisa_BOh my! Goodness gracious!
WHO was Rosa Gill speaking for when she said "WE see no reason to change our year round plans?" While she may be the chairperson, she doesn't speak for the entire group and she honestly can't mean that. CAN SHE??
Has she been living in a vacuum?
I would welcome ANYONE to look at the following figures and explain HOW someone would even attempt to try to justify MYR?????
How have we come to the point where saying "we need to increase the capacity at the school even though there is not a need for more seats or a demand for the year round calendar because a lot of people want to get in..." is accepted as rationale for forcing a wasteful, unnecessary, destructive and divisive MYR conversion? UGH!!!!
I feel like we're dealing with 2 year olds if we have to accept that kind of justification when MYR has wasted so much money and has hurt so many families.
Leesville Elementary School:
2008-09 School Year:
TRADITIONAL Calendar Capacity = 860
Base Students Assigned to LES = 806
Base Students Actually Attending LES = 712
2009-10 School Year
NO CHANGES PROPOSED-No justification for continuing with wasteful MYR
******************************************
Leesville Road Middle School
2008-09 School Year:
TRADITIONAL Calendar Capacity = 1222 Base Students Assigned to LRMS = 1457
Base Students Actually Attending LRMS = 1244
2009-10 School Year
TRADITIONAL Calendar Capacity = 1222
Base Students Assigned to LRMS = 1281 (176 fewer than 2008-09)
Base Students Expected to Attend LRMS = 1095
AS YOU CAN SEE, BOTH SCHOOLS CAN COMFORTABLY OPERATE ON THE TRADITIONAL CALENDAR.
Kind of reminds me of "The Emperors New Clothes" when everyone is afraid to admit what a sham MYR has been, so they just smile, nod, and allow the insanity to continue.
Let's hope the State Supreme Court has some sense and steps in to halt the crazy train before it brings more disruption and destruction to our communities.
The facts could not be more
Thu, 02/19/2009 - 08:17 — Big_PictureThe facts could not be more clear than that. It is a crime to go ahead with MYR at Leesville Elem and Leesville Midd. Thank you Lisa B.
keep those cards and letters coming!
Thu, 02/19/2009 - 08:33 — AngelaWhttp://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/letters/story/1410651.html
Unproductive switch
The current plan to cheat taxpayers by forcing an unnecessary year-round conversion on Leesville Middle School is unacceptable.
This change was initially proposed as the only way to deal with excessive growth. Since that proposal was made, the Wake County Public School System has admitted that growth in the Leesville area is flat. The school will only gain 14 new students during the next three years.
Enrollment data for 2009-10 was recently released. With approximately 200 fewer base students assigned to Leesville Middle, WCPSS still plans to force a costly conversion.
At a time when we should be cutting back on unnecessary spending, why would our school board even consider making this wasteful change? Why waste taxpayer dollars to go through a costly year-round conversion and also increase the operating expenses of this school by over 20 percent in order to accommodate 200 fewer students?
Sure, this change would increase the capacity of the school, but that increased capacity is not needed for at least 4-5 years.
Knowing these facts, it is completely irresponsible of our school board to move forward with this unjustified change. Why aren't decisions concerning the spending of our tax dollars more transparent?
Lisa Boneham
A+. While it is 100% true
Thu, 02/19/2009 - 11:19 — Big_PictureA+. While it is 100% true I am actually shocked that the N&O even printed that. Maybe they are going to finally help expose the waste and lies after all?
I seriously doubt
Thu, 02/19/2009 - 14:00 — g88ky07I seriously doubt it!
They'd rather expose 16 year old speeding tickets and neighborhood brawls!
It's a canister vac!
Thu, 02/19/2009 - 10:43 — g88ky07And she's spinning around like lint balls and rump dust off the neighbor's cats!
The delusional denial that she, and the rest of them continue to either believe, or are being forced to spew, is beyond belief and there are probably grounds now for additional lawsuits!
Private schools continue to grow in Wake County
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 20:50 — kmisegadesUnmentioned again is the continued strong growth in non-government schools. Mr Hui, would you please survey Wake County private/parochial/charter/home schools to ask how their growth projections look for the coming fall? Franklin Academy Charter has a waiting list of over 2,000 students. Our Thales Academy in Apex has just this week filled all Kindergarten seats for next fall and will start a waiting list. Our sister school in Wake-Forest has four Kindergarten classes, also now full, for next fall. One year ago both schools were only on paper. Much of WCPSS' slower growth is due to rejection by parents, voting "no confidence" with their feet.
WOW!
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 21:54 — g88ky07A waiting list of over 2000! Not surprised at all!
What % of those on the waiting list will get lucky and get in, very few?
Good for you guys. Can you build a 100 more by this time next year!??
GA won't allow more charters
Thu, 02/19/2009 - 20:34 — kmisegadesLuck indeed. Entrance to all charters including Franklin Academy is via a lottery.
Sure, we could build 100 of these schools, for less than half the government spends on schools. But the General Assembly must first lift the cap on charter schools. Franklin Academy kids come from all walks of life, and score in the upper 90th percentile in national (Iow) tests. Any wonder why the government fears the competition? Who would put their child in a government school if they had such a charter school as a viable option?
But we can also build the private school equivalent, the Thales Academy, at a very low cost. If you want one in your community "just do it" as we did in Apex and Wake Forest. Contact me for details. kmisegades@bellsouth.net
a bunch of crap!
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 17:20 — AngelaWif there are not headlines about LOWER PROJECTIONS AGAIN, and/or EXPLOSIVE GROWTH DOESN'T EXIST, MYR UNNECESSARY AS FIRST PRESENTED, TAXPAYERS FOOLED....then it will confirm my suspicions of a hack newspaper......
not holding my breath
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 17:31 — loriachope you don't have any parking tickets :-)
well me either, but for pete's sake...
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 17:41 — AngelaWROFL!!!! not a one, haven't even argued with a neighbor lately!
Really, Ms. Gill???
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 17:14 — AngelaW"We see no reason now to change our year-round plans," Gill said after today's joint meeting.
if this lack of growth situation isn't now just the biggest pi44ing contest out there, I do not know what is!
PROOF that MYR is not working and "explosive growth" no longer exists (if it EVER did) and this is the reaction of the BoE.
Power trippin'.....good grief, makes me want to vomit
c'mon October!!!!!!!!!!!
In the age of MYR debate,
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 17:12 — shearertwIn the age of MYR debate, have they ever had "raise" enrollment projections?
No reason to change year-round plans???
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 16:21 — Eric_BIf slower overall growth in Wake County, flat enrollment projections at Leesville Middle, and the possibility of losing the Wake CARES court case are not reasons for changing year-round plans, what are?
They had better pray that they win the court case, because if they lose they are going to look like idiots for not taking a break from unnecessary year-round conversions before the case was decided.
Eric, They are going to
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 19:04 — CaryCurmudgeonEric,
They are going to look like idiots either way. If they lose the lawsuit (and I hope they do), then the de facto Supreme Court ruling is that they wasted millions of dollars converting schools and fighting a lawsuit brought by parents. If, by some chance they win, then that many more voters will know that they MUST go to the ballot box to end the MYR nightmare. MYR was a huge mistake to begin with. Hundreds of schools have considered or implemented MYR, only to find it did not deliver the expected efficiency and parents hated it, so they reverted to traditional. There are wonderful VYR's all over the country, but you have to look hard to find MYR programs which have been warmly embraced by communities and succeeded in delivering the advertised efficiencies.
Dayton learned their lesson
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 21:07 — CaryiteA story today on the WDTN website (a Dayton, OH TV station) - "The Dayton Public School Board has voted to go back to a more traditional school year, abandoning the year-round school calendar adopted in 2005."
wow, there goes another one!
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 21:13 — AngelaWthanks for the heads' up, just one more nail for our BoE.....bet they will ignore it though!
http://www.wdtn.com/dpp/news/WDTN_Dayton_schools_change_calendar_
A
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 20:16 — g88ky07and men!
alternate reality
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 16:16 — loriac"We see no reason now to change our year-round plans," Gill said after today's joint meeting.
All the growth assumptions behind the recent reassignment proposal were wrong. These incorrect growth assumptions are also driving unneeded, COSTLY, YR conversions.
I am just amazed that Ms. Gill can make this statement.
What do the county commissioners say about this huge waste of money?
I find it just amazing
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 21:40 — g88ky07that Rosa Gill was ever elected and has/had 12 or 13 people who support anything that dribbles out of her big mouth! Her election and head seating was ONLY about diversity! Wonder how she feels about THAT truth!
Who wants to make a prediction on what they'll do WHEN they lose the lawsuit?!
What About Reassignment
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 15:45 — JanisTangoNow that they've finally admitted what a lot of us were saying in our arguments regarding the latest reassignment, is there any chance they will put all the reassignments on hold? I doubt it, but one can hope can't they? We are being moved in 2009 not because of growth (it was never about growth), but because of 'diversity'.
What new schools are they still trying to fill since it appears H6 won't be happening anytime soon? The latest reassignment and the MYR at Leesville was based on massive growth which we all know was not true. I'm just curious why they are figuring this out now, when it was known months ago the growth would be minimal because of the economic mess. They moved forward with a plan that was based on a lot of incorrect assumptions. We asked at the time that they take a 'breather' from reassignments and take a wait and see approach. BUT NOOOOOOO!