Wake forwarded the Day 5 numbers over the weekend and they show that the district is still a long way from reaching enrollment projections.
Wake had 136,060 students on Friday, 4,025 more kids than the same time last year. But Wake would need to gain 3,187 students by Day 20 on Sept. 22 to reach the revised estimate of 139,247 students.
Wake only picked up 1,967 students between Day 5 and Day 20 last school year.
To no one's surprise, Wake now officially has more students than last school year. Wake's official 2007-08 enrollment was 134,002 students.
Based on Day 5, Wake has 66,835 elementary students, 30,559 middle school students and 38,666 high school students. The "other students," kids in places like Longview, were apparently folded into the other categories.
Under the revised projections, Wake is supposed to have 68,304 elementary students, 31,136 middle school students, 39,493 high school students and 314 other students.
Click here for the Day 1 numbers.
There's still no school-by-school numbers yet for this year.
Comments
Thanks Sideburns!
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 14:22 — shearertwSo...the bond, conversions, etc were based on a projection of 142,799 for this year. Forget the "revised" numbers because they haven't "revised" the strategy. So we're 6739 students short, not 4025. These end of 2005 projections would have us at 151,324 at the beginning of 2009-1010 school year. If we gain 5000 kids between now and next year (we gained 4000 over the last year) the will be at about 141,000 or a total of 10,000 students short! Let's assume each YR school gains 250 seats vs traditional (although we know that to be false) but just assume....10,000 divided by 250 is 40 or 40 schools that could be converted from YR to Traditional in my book.
You don't say!
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 14:07 — g88ky07"district is still a long way from reaching enrollment projections. "
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
can't be.
Not sure if it is relevant,
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 14:00 — Anonymous (not verified)Not sure if it is relevant, but I overheard broadcasting in one of the elementary school when I was waiting for my child that 50 students registered did not show up (1st day...) ...
Just thinkin outside the box here....
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 13:16 — shearertwAlong with all these "revised" projections, shouldn't there come a "revised" strategy?
160,000 by 2010?
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 13:04 — shearertwHaven't yet found exactly what I'm looking for but in 2005, in a WCPSS document labeled "Blueprint for Excellence 2006", WCPSS estimated there would be over 160,000 students by 2010. Nearing the end of 2008 and we're not even at 140K. So in less that two years, we'd need to gain over 20K students to meet that projection. I bet we don't reach 150K by 2010.
I believe the "Blueprint for Excellence 2006" doc was propaganda for a bond issue (imagine that). Time for some accountability folks.
Demographics link
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 14:09 — Sideburnsshearertw -
Try this.
http://www.wcpss.net/demographics/reports/book07.pdf#page=143
Let's compare to the real number...
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 10:43 — shearertwThese numbers are bad enough, but let's stop comparing to the "revised" projections and saying "4000 more students than last year", etc. What was the total number of students projected 2-3 years ago for 2008 when the "fire alarm" was pulled leading to the 22 conversions last year? I bet we're 7 to 8000 kids lower than those projections. If each of the converted schools holds about 750 kids as a traditional and "supposedly" 1000 kids as a YR, then that's only 5500 seats. By my admittedly rough estimates, we could reconvert all 22 with 3000 seats to spare.
Shattered Egos......
Tue, 09/02/2008 - 12:13 — WuptdoShearertw -- that would mean that the WCPSS management and BoE(eR) would have to admit they were WRONG. It will never happen because in their minds, everything they do is RIGHT, and we should just obey our "betters."
Folks, its political season again, so go to some fundraisers and listen how our elected officials really think/feel about you lemmings.