Wake is continuing to lower its projected enrollment for the upcoming school year.
Wake's latest projection for the 2009-10 school year calls for 139,726 students, an increase of 2,020 kids from this past school year. This compares to a June projection of 139,951 students and 140,012 students in February.
While the recession bears part of the blame for Wake' relatively small growth rate this year, school officials have said the major reason is the new state law requiring kids to turn 5 by Aug. 31 to enter kindergarten. Growth is projected to go to above 4,000 students in 2010-11.
The slower growth can also be seen at some schools.
The new August projection for Leesville Road Middle School, which recently converted to a year-round calendar, calls for it to have 1,270 students this year. The June projection had it at 1,320 students.
The 10th-day enrollment total for Leesville Middle was 1,246 students. Growth & Planning expects the school to pick up 24 more students by Day 20.
Year-round schools are using their 10th-day enrollment to figure out if their staffing needs to be changed. Some schools will gain teachers while others will lose them.
Chief Business Officer David Neter told school board members on Wednesday that the 10th-day reconciliation process went "very smoothly" as they adjusted the staffing at the year-round schools.
Click here for the August projections, which include the 10th-day totals.
Click here for the June projections.
Comments
So....
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 22:41 — Bob_SconceWakefield ES had their annual PTA meeting this past week. The principal made a presentation about enrollment -- 815 students, about 100 below expectation. There is a single class on track 2 IN THE ENTIRE SCHOOL, and one grade only has a single class on track 3.
Remind me again... why did this conversion happen?
We've been...
Mon, 08/17/2009 - 06:44 — gunfam...asking the same question in Apex for a few years now. Its a shame that this keeps happening. When are the elections?
October 6. Spread the
Mon, 08/17/2009 - 08:12 — changewcpssOctober 6. Spread the word.
Go to www.WakeSCA.org to see what the future holds if everyone gets out to vote.
It's your neighbors you have to worry about
Mon, 08/17/2009 - 08:35 — g88ky07because they'll have every excuse in the book why they didn't make it to the polls. "Suzy wasn't happy that day, I can't take my 7 kids to vote, I had to play bridge, I had to wash dishes, I had to get my oil changed, I forgot, I didn't know where to vote, I didn't know who to vote for, I didn't, I didn't, I didn't, so YOU be the pesky neighbor and tell them now, if they've EVER complained about the status quo school board, system or its wanna be leaders here's their warning,
IT DOESN'T CHANGE IF YOU DON'T VOTE!
But, but, but
Sun, 08/16/2009 - 05:11 — RichardAndersonBut YR saves money! Really keeping a school open for an extra 60 days per year for one class is a great cost savings!
Booming growth in non-government schools
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 18:58 — kmisegadesI know I am beating a dead horse here, but N&O please research the growth in private and home schools in Wake County if you want to completely understand no growth in WCPSS. Hire a young intern, better yet a homeschooler, give him a list of the schools and have him ask what their enrollment looks like in 2009 compared to 2008. Then print a simple table from Excel. The homeschooler can probably do this, too. Our Thales Academy in Apex will enroll about 200 children in K-6 this year. Last year at this time we had about 60 children in K-5. Our sister school in Wake Forest is seeing similar growth. My guess is that all privates are growing much faster than public schools, which runs counter to the argument that the poor economy is causing flat growth in government schools. People continue to turn their backs on WCPSS, making tough financial sacrifices on behalf of their children to essentially pay twice for their kids' education. It's about time for vouchers.
Kindergartners
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:17 — mommy59Do they think I truly beleive that there were actually 4,000 people out there who didn't get in because of the birthday cut off!
Sure some did't get in,others who were rich enough pay for private school,some turned to homeschool or even got into charter schools.Also there are people out there who just moved awy because of the ecnomy and not as many people moved here because of the economy.
What Wake is saying is that
Mon, 08/17/2009 - 11:03 — KeungHui (author)What Wake is saying is that more than 1,000 kids who would normally have started kindergarten this year won't because of the new cutoff date. They're saying that next year's attendance is projected to have a net K-12 gain of 4,000 students when you throw in the kids who couldn't start this year.
Why revise projections at
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 18:52 — Big_PictureWhy revise projections at this point? To hide incompetence and *pretend* the projections were closer to actual?
Funding is based on Day 10 actuals which have already been reported at MYR schools, so what are revised projections used for?
Excellent question and
Mon, 08/17/2009 - 15:30 — changewcpssExcellent question and spot-on speculation.
Mr. Hui, can you check into this?
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 13:10 — AngelaWhow many teachers will Leesville Middle now lose because of the Day 10 numbers? 2, 3, 4??? collapse of tracks?? more kids per class?? what further ramifications of this mess does this school have to look forward to?
That far off you will most
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 08:39 — changewcpssThat far off you will most likely lose 4 or 5 teachers, class sizes will increase, may even move students to different tracks.
More proof that you never should have been forced to deal with MYR at Leesville. Changing of the guard at BoE should place 2 MYR reversals on Leesville campus as a top priority. None of this should have happened if BoE had actually taken their eyes off social engineering and looked at cold hard facts.
Changing of the guard
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 08:52 — g88ky07should place reversing JUST ABOUT ALL of the latest 22 forced conversions back to traditional as top priority with an 11,000+ over stating of projections since they shoved that farce down our throats!
I trust that there are many
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 09:33 — changewcpssI trust that there are many more schools than the Leesville ones where it should occur as well. Leesville just stands out b/c of their obvious black and white case supported with verifiable data. Throw in the passion and size of their support group and they ought to be a slam dunk. MYR is just 1 issue requiring change at WCPSS. Good luck to all of you.
"You never let a serious
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:30 — shearertw"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before."
Rahm Emanuel
Richard you may be half right but I'm thinking it was at least partly some people on the BOE and in the Administration who were thinking a bit like Mr. Emanuel.
Emanuel et al
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:38 — RichardAndersonBe that as it may, if we don't get accurate data into the hands of new board members, we aren't going to get anywhere.
I think that questioning motives won't move us forward, but establishing that the data presented is not reliable enough as a basis making such far reaching decisions will lead to positive change.
I like your positive
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:44 — shearertwI like your positive attitude and hope the new board members will share your open mind.
I will remain skeptical, but hopeful, until proven otherwise.
Anyone have some spare time?
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:09 — RichardAndersonAnyone have some spare time and the inclination to put together a table or spreadsheet that would show, year by year the population variance from the official estimate given at the time the board votes on the reassignment plan versus actual?
I know this won't make me popular, but I do believe that in most cases the board members aren't making the wrong choice solely because of their own failings. I genuinely believe that in many cases, they are basing their decisions on erroneous data and false assumptions. If someone has the time or inclination to show how far off what they base their vote on is from reality, I think it would be an interesting discussion point in the upcoming campaign.
Richard, I agree with you
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:27 — Eric_BRichard,
I agree with you that the growth projections provided by Growth & Planning were faulty. Mr. Dulaney admitted during the reassignment public meetings that the projections were developed before the recent economic downturn, but refused to consider revising the 3-year assignment plan based on the changing economic conditions.
Instead, a 3-year plan was developed based on bad projections and with so many caveats that everyone knew the plan would not carry through all three years without big changes even before the plan was approved.
For example, the cohort growth model used by Growth & Planning showed Leesville Middle growing to 1535 students by 2011-12 after reassignments. This despite the fact that the school enrollment has gone from 1317 to 1281 last year down to a projected 1270 this year after reeassignments.
I would like to help put together a spreadsheet of projections vs. actual attendance numbers. Do you know where such data is available? As far as I can tell Growth & Planning only keeps the current reassignment plan up on its site.
Part 1
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 13:00 — RichardAndersonhttp://www.wcpss.net/bond/downloads/quick_reference_guide.pdf
Published 11/6/2006
Page 27, Estimated total school population
2005-2006 120,504 (actual)
2006-2007 127,513
2007-2008 134,954
2008-2009 142,799
2009-2010 151,324
http://www.wcpss.net/demographics/quickfacts/index_qfreports.html
That should give you actuals. I will look for that actual assignment reports.
So we're ~11,500 short of
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 13:10 — shearertwSo we're ~11,500 short of 2006 projections, have 22 unnecessarily converted schools, AND still have trailors?
and some schools and their
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 08:13 — rr77rr99and some schools and their trailers STUFFED to capacity and over capacity while some have empty seats?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When will anyone stand up and unite against this insanity?
Try www.wakesca. They are
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:33 — changewcpssTry www.wakesca. They are doing it
"trailers STUFFED to
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 11:22 — MorrisVMorris"trailers STUFFED to capacity and over capacity while some have empty "
But if you move the kids to where the space is available people complain ...
There Are 500 Seats Within 2 Miles of Us
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:41 — JanisTangoThere are 500 seats 2 miles from our house, but we can't go because we aren't the right kind of economic diversity they want. I would love it. They wouldn't have to provide transportation...it's a WIN WIN!
Make it happen
Mon, 08/17/2009 - 13:46 — MorrisVMorrisQuit work, stay home with your kids, go to the school you want because you want are not rich anymore ... sounds like a real win-win ...
Sounds like
Mon, 08/17/2009 - 14:18 — g88ky07you picked the wrong day to quit sniffin' glue!
or
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 11:49 — JSBinNCif you let *some* people go where they apply and are constantly turned down - there might be some breathing room for everyone - and a chance to focus on fixing the real things that are issues.
Under-enrolled VOLUNTARY YR schools are as useful as over-crowded traditional. Both have high over head (maybe in different ways) for perhaps not great reasons.
Think a minute
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 11:46 — RichardAndersonMy Mother Taught in A Permanent Mobile Classroom
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:29 — JanisTangoMy mother taught in a 'permanent' mobile classroom for a decade at least. A first she wasn't thrilled about the idea because she had been in a nice inside classroom for so many years. She actually said there were advantages to it. The one I remember clearly is there was less noise to contend with. I don't think it's ideal, but it's not the worst thing that could happen. We have them at our school and we use them for other activities since they aren't used for classrooms currently. They are actually a lot nicer than I was led to believe!
Mobiles
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:49 — RichardAndersonMy son is in a mobile unit right now, and I agree that they aren't as bad as they might seem when someone mentions "school in a trailer". The multi-room units that WCPSS uses are actually quite good compared to others I have seen. I did some student-teacher field experience in Atlanta in a trailer that was either baking hot or you had to about yell over the noise from the A/C unit. This is not what I have seen in use around here, thankfully.
I am not complaining about using trailers, just saying that the way in which they are used is, in my opinion, far from optimal. Mobile capacity should be used in order to minimize moving students. Instead, mobile capacity is used in order to allow for more students to be moved. That makes no sense to me.
I Actually Agree With What You Said
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:57 — JanisTangoI do actually agree with what you said previously. I should have stated that. I think we need to look at them as an option for minimizing the moves.
And a show of hands from parents
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 13:38 — g88ky07with common sense, how many of us knew this 3 years ago?
Older data
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:36 — RichardAndersonI would like to help put together a spreadsheet of projections vs.
actual attendance numbers. Do you know where such data is available?
As far as I can tell Growth & Planning only keeps the current
reassignment plan up on its site.
I am not sure, but I believe that Mr Hui would have copies of the plans as he has featured them on this blog over the last few years. Although he may not keep them. I would think that public records laws would apply, and that would mean that they would need to be retained and made publicly available upon request.
Part B
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 13:36 — RichardAndersonhttp://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1137859.html
http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1178565.html
generally I *might* agree
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:13 — AngelaWgenerally I *might* agree with you but in the case of Leesville Middle this rests COMPLETELY on Patti Head, hook, line and sinker and there's nothing but hard facts to back that up.
You are right
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:21 — RichardAndersonThere are certainly specific examples that show that the decision was made in way not supported by any data. But, in the case of the MYR debacle, much of the data presented indicated the need for those conversions. Many of us could see the faults in the projections, and were shown to be correct, but if you took the 'staff estimates' at face value, they supported the claim. If we can raise the question about the merit of staff estimates provided to the board, I think we will be better off.
this was done REPEATEDLY in
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 12:26 — AngelaWthis was done REPEATEDLY in the case of Leesville Middle and STILL ignored specifically by Patti Head, Kevin Hill, Lori Millberg and Chuck Dulaney (with nasty emails for "answers" in return).....Bev Clark and Ron questioned the "need" and at first Anne McLaurin did as well....when shown FACTUAL numbers....then egos and "losing face" got in the way and that's why Leesville Middle is where it is today.
I, for one, am sick to death of doing WCPSS' work for them and cannot wait to see the tail end of those not running again...
Patti Head
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 11:57 — AngelaW"Growth & Planning expects the school to pick up 24 more students by Day 20." wow, big frickin' deal....24 students...and STILL underenrolled....
CAN YOU HEAR US NOW??? I personally cannot wait to see you out the door .... you NEVER listened, it was all about YOU, and THIS is the result....you should be ashamed...
and Kevin Hill, who DEFENDED the 11th hour decision to convert because it was then "too late" to stop the conversion...do ya feel justified now, MR Chairman?? are ya gonna talk about THAT when you get your reward?
the wasteful spending of tax dollars in an economic hurricane, the decimation of a community for LESS students than even projected....really???
how do you people sleep at night?
Leesville Middle
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 11:50 — Eric_BThank you for explicitly calling out the numbers for Leesville Middle. Sure enough, just as many, many parents told Growth & Planning and the school board, the enrollment at Leesville Middle is set to shrink for the second year in a row to 1270 down from 1317 students in 2007-08. More evidence that the year-round conversion was wasteful and unnecessary.
Reassignments and the year-round conversion of Leesville Middle have decimated nearby traditional calendar elementary schools like Hilburn, which is now a Title I school and projected to have 200 open seats this year. Ms. Head refused to listen to parents and refused to help push to make changes to the plan and this mess is the result.
Look At All The Schools Around Leesville
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 17:27 — JanisTangoLook at that capacity and actual numbers all around Leesville. All the schools are under capacity (traditional and MYR) and I would estimate there are at least 750-1000 seats available in this area. They still won't let us go to the school a mile from our house. We aren't the right type of neighborhood even though our 20+ kids would change the numbers by less than 1/4 percentage point! Geez!
Same bait & switch
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 11:43 — g88ky07EVERY SINGLE YEAR! And there's ALWAYS an excuse for their incompetence!
So right g88. So on the
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 08:15 — rr77rr99So right g88. So on the money!
The "brain trust" is not so trustworthy or smart. That we've certainly figured out.