This week's rain is welcome, City Manager Tom Bonfield said Monday night, but it's probably not enough to put off water-use restrictions in Durham.

"It's not enough to move us out of drought conditions," Bonfield said.

In late August, with the city's water supply at 77.8 percent of normal, assistant Water Manager Vicki Westbrook said Stage 1 restrictions were likely "post-Labor Day" unless Durham's reservoirs received significant rainfall.

Monday night, Lake Michie was 3.5 feet below full and the Little River Reservoir was down nine feet. The rate of water flowing into the lakes shot up once the rains began Monday morning, but had been running far below average for the past week.

Bonfield said the water department will check stream flows and lake levels later this week, but "unless something drastically changes by the end of the week" he expects Stage 1 restrictions will be announced to take effect immediately.

Under Stage 1, city water customers could run sprinklers only once a week, instead of the three days per week normally allowed; and no exemptions would be issued for keeping new landscapes alive.

Watering by hand or with drip hoses, washing cars and washing outside walls and sidewalks would be OK. If the water supply falls to 55 percent capacity, more stringent Stage 2 rules kick in.

Bonfield said he anticipates that water-use restrictions will remain in effect at least until the end of October.

With one warm, dry day after another, City Councilman Howard Clement is concerned about Durham's water supply.

The city's reservoirs are at only 79.5 percent capacity, he said at Monday night's council meeting.

"I was alarmed," he said. "That seems awfully low to me, and I don't see any prediction there's going to be any rain."

Clement (right) asked City Manager Tom Bonfield to have a report on the situation and what the city staff is doing about it in time for Thursday's work session.

Now, according to the Water Department's website at 1:30 this afternoon, Durham has 158 days' worth of "easily accessible, premium water" in Lake Michie and the Little River Reservoir, plus 12 days' worth in the Teer Quarry. There's also 39 days' supply of water below the reservoirs' intakes that could be accessed with some effort. Total supply, 209 days.

That, however, is based on the past 30 days' average demand: 30.68 million gallons per day  Monday. September demand is averaging 31.72 mgd -- up more than 4 million gallons per day from the 27.36 average of September 2009.

Lake Michie is two feet below its 341-foot full point; Little River is 7.5 feet below full; those levels, though, are considerably higher than they were at this point in the major drought years of 2007, 2005 and 2002.

Clement, though, is thinking ahead.

"We need to take more proactive steps to deal with this," he said. "I just don't think we're in a position to go through what we did three years ago (below)."

After hearing a report on Durham's water needs in the future, City Council member Diane Catotti wanted to know about the here and now -- given the prolonged dry weather earlier this month.

"Are we moving toward drought?" she asked water director Don Greeley.

"Fifty-fity," he replied. "As they've said every year at this time."

Durham County moved into the "moderate drought" category last week, as defined by the state Division of Water Resources. Here's how Durham's water supply stands, according to the city water department:

• Days of supply of easily accessible, premium water remaining (Lake Michie, Little River Reservoir): 162 days
• Days in Teer Quarry storage remaining: 15 days
• Days of less accessible water below the intake structures remaining: 48 days
• Total days of supply: 225

It will be a shame when the city of Raleigh finally switches over to tiered water rates and the City Council has to find something else to discuss incessantly.

On Tuesday, the council found itself, once again, wondering aloud why the transition to tiered rates can’t happen sooner.

You may recall that last month it was agreed that residential water customers in Raleigh and Garner would move to a three-tier rate structure on Dec. 1. The structure is designed to encourage conservation as the rates will rise according to consumption.

City Manager Russell Allen has told the City Council on numerous occasions that Raleigh can’t make the switch until it has new billing software in place.

But on Tuesday, Councilman Russ Stephenson asked for an independent investigation to see whether that truly is the case. Yes, an investigation to see whether the city’s own staff truly knows what it is talking about.

The independent inquiry was one of a laundry list of utility-related issues that Stephenson wants both the council and the city staff to take up immediately. Others include a drought surcharge, water audits of area businesses and new capacity fees on water hook-ups.

Allen admitted serious frustration at the fact that Stephenson wasn’t buying staff’s explanation for why the shift to tiered rates can’t happen until December. Councilor Mary-Ann Baldwin said even she was frustrated by Stephenson’s request.

That caused Stephenson to play the garbage disposal card, telling anyone who would listen that the public utility staff giving them advice is the same staff that told the council it needed to ban garbage disposals. (We all know how that turned out, don’t we Neusie.)

Councilor Philip Isley eventually told his colleagues that they were exhuming a dead horse by raising the tiered rate issue, which led to a series of unfortunate horse puns.

So what’s really going on here?

Allen is recommending that the council raise water rates immediately by 17 percent to offset sluggish water sales. This unwelcome news has caused Stephenson to ask city staff why they haven’t made more progress on all the issues he’s been raising for months.

Stephenson essentially described the public utility department as being a black box that has been reticent about changing its ways. “None of us really knows what the reality is,” he said.

(Let's just hope Raleigh Public Utilities Director Dale Crisp wasn't involved in any credit default swaps.)

It was agreed on Tuesday that Stephenson’s issues would be discussed at the next council meeting on April 7. Some of Stephenson’s initiatives would encourage more conservation among Raleigh water customers, which could exasperate the revenue shortage that the department is currently experiencing. Other initiatives would create new revenue streams for the department, which could shift some of the burden away from residential rate payers.

The switch to tiered-rates has been talked about so much that it would be easy to mistakenly think of it as an elixir for all the city’s water woes. But the actual transition has the potential to introduce more instability into the department’s revenue model. The city’s consultant is designing the tiered rate structure to be revenue neutral, but the city won’t know if that’s truly the case until it puts it into practice.

In the meantime, the City Council is likely going to have to explain to customers who answered the call to conserve that their reward is an ahead-of-schedule rate hike.

Last year at this time Raleigh was mired in a historic drought and Mayor Charles Meeker's used much of his state-of-the-city address to talk about the need for water conservation. During his address on Monday, Meeker noted that water issues have taken a backseat to other matters this year, thanks both to the tanking economy and the fact that Raleigh has received 50 inches of rain since last spring.

But Meeker still used a portion of his 12-minute speech to talk about conservation. He said the city needs to renew its focus on conservation by making a push to install more low-flow devices and to use less drinking water to irrigate lawns. (The city is also expected to adopt tiered water rates later this year, a system that charges customers higher rates the more water they consume.) More notably, Meeker on Monday took a jab at City Council members who have made an issue of rising water rates.

Raleigh increased water rates by 15 percent in July, and City Manager Russell Allen anticipates that another 15 percent increase will be needed to pay for expensive capital improvements that are now being made to the system. Meeker said Monday that Raleigh's water rates remain among the lowest in the state and he went on to explain why conservation should be pursued even if it temporarily increases water rates: 

"This is a challenge very simply because you sell water to pay for the improvements ... at the same time the City Council doesn't want to increase the rates because the customers don't like rate increases and the customers happen to vote in city elections. But our community has got to be better than that ... we don't need to be using drinking water to irrigate our lawns as much as we are ... even though it may not be popular in the short run because it will affect rates, it's the right thing to do in the long run."

This debate over water rates is likely to resurface at the City Council's special budget work session in March and then continue on until a new budget is adopted in May or June. Councilmen Thomas Crowder, Rodger Koopman and Russ Stephenson have all expressed their displeasure with water rates increasing and are likely to press hard for the city to find some way to spare residents a rate increase this year. Meeker made his position clear in Monday's speech. 

Sensitized by the volume of citizen complaints over recent water bills, the City Council talked Thursday about enlightening the public why their water costs what it does.

Reason is, the rates went up last summer so the city can pay for improving the water system before another drought comes our way.

News & Observer columnist J. Peder Zane declares the drought over and offers tips for bringing it back. (Staff video by Jason Arthurs)

The General Assembly is currently debating the adoption of new drought rules for water systems across the state. A bill that cleared a House committee earlier this week gives the state the power to order water restrictions but leaves the
specifics -- who must conserve and how much -- to individual
water systems.

One issue that could concern Raleigh, Cary and other water systems is linking when a system has to put in restrictions to the state's drought monitor. For example, the Triangle could be in a severe level of drought, but reservoirs such as Jordan Lake and Falls Lake could be full or close to full. This scenario is likely to be faced by Cary many times in the future, as Jordan Lake is much less prone to droughts than Falls Lake. Keep in mind that water systems need to be able to sell water to make their budgetary goals, and having fixed trigger points set by the state or someone else could wreak havoc on some system's budgets. 

What level of state control is appropriate? It would seem that everyone benefits from water systems being extremely well prepared to handle the next drought. But, as this recent drought showed, municipalities often don't know how well their drought plan work until it is put in place and tested. Raleigh ended up tweaking its conservation rules repeatedly between August of last year and May. Should systems continue to have the flexibility to change their rules as conditions change? There's also the question of whether the state has the time or resources to be knowledgeable about every water system in the state.