Week 11 Tri-Nine football predictions

There's only one game you need to know this week:

Fuquay-Varina at Middle Creek.  

 

If the Mustangs hold serve at home, 

they're your 2009 Tri-Nine Conference champions. If Fuquay wins, a three-way tie is on the table.

 

Game of the week  

Fuquay-Varina (8-1, 5-1) at Middle Creek (8-1, 6-0) 

  It all comes down to this. Or does it? A Fuquay win makes this conference one with three one-loss teams, and then we're going into the last week looking for possible upsets or else name three conference co-champs and a draw for playoff seeding. Both teams have the conference's top two offenses and top two defenses (separated by 4 points on offense and 7 on defense). I like the Mustangs better on offense, because they can run or pass effectively (whereas Fuquay can only run). I also like Middle Creek better on defense, where they have playmakers at every level of the defense (Al Reams on the line, Britt Cherry at linebacker, Jordan Mays and Garrett Rider at corner).I saw that same unit earlier this year hold Holly Springs, which runs a similar offense to the Bengals, to 10 second-half yards. Fuquay has been susceptible to the pass this year, and that doesn't bode well facing a QB like Garrett Leatham who leads our area with 278 yards per game (but expect athletes like Nate Budde and Cory Hunter, pictured above on the right, to see a lot of defensive snaps).

Final verdict: Middle Creek by 10

Panther Creek (4-5, 2-4) at Lee County (2-7, 1-5)
As almost every team should be when they face Lee County, Panther Creek is on upset alert this week. Especially since Lee County is home to the Tri-Nine's third-best defense, and Panther Creek has been turnover-happy in the last two games (five in each of their last two). If QB Kameron Bryant can't protect the ball, it's going to be a long night down in Sanford. The Catamounts will be able to drop a loss when it comes to playoff seeding, but will they be invited? At four wins, it's hard to say. This is a big game for PC. Get that fifth win, and you're feeling a lot better about a playoff berth than you would otherwise.. However, I'm waiting on Lee to get an upset and running out of weeks. I'm thinking PC wins, but only by a few.

Athens Drive (6-3, 4-2) at Apex (2-7, 2-4)
Athens played better than most (except yours truly) expected against Fuquay last week. Now the Jags will go to Apex to try to pick up win No. 7. It's been a pretty good bounce-back year for Athens. The same can't be said for Apex, which is one loss away from being eliminated from playoff contention. The Cougars have been led to a winning record in each of the last 11 years by coach Bob Wolfe, a streak that can only be matched in Wake County by Garner. The Jags' defense has been playing at a very high level lately (its special teams that cost them against Fuquay) and considering Apex is averaging around 60 yards per game on the ground, the one-dimensional attack will be easy to prepare for. I'm taking the Jags, who will have a big game next week against Holly Springs. 

Holly Springs (7-2, 5-1) at Green Hope (0-10, 0-7)
It's almost here. For Holly Springs, it's just a few weeks and a little help from Fuquay away from a co-conference championship. By the way, isn't it odd the Golden Hawks will be forced to cheer on Fuquay (in what is the 2nd-best rivalry in the Tri-Nine in my opinion)? For Green Hope, the end of the year is this week (the bye week is next week). The Falcons have came close in some games this year. Their 24-14 loss to Durham Jordan was as close as they've come to victory in awhile. Green Hope is in danger of ending its second consecutive winless season. Its losing streak is at 26 with a chance to go to 27. At some point, this program will break through. It'll require a lot of patience from the players, however, which is hard to come by at the 4-A level in Wake County. If the going gets tough, players get going... to another school. And that's got to stop for the Falcons to stop this streak soon. Unfortunately, "soon" will have to be next August, as Holly Springs will win this one handily.

NCISSA PLAYOFFS: Word of God (3-6) at Cary Christian (7-2) 
Now that the NCISAA playoffs are here, it's time to check in on our local 8-man team, Cary Christian. The Knights have been pretty dominant this year, earning the 3-seed in the 2-A playoffs. Cary Christian actually played their first round opponent, the Holy Rams of Word of God, earlier in the year and smoked them 45-8. Don't expect this one to go much differently unless C.J. Leslie shows up in pads.