There's just one week in the season, so it's time to get you caught up on the playoff picture. So far we know this about the Tri-Nine Conference:
1. Middle Creek is the outright conference champ.
2. Holly Springs is the outright No. 2.
3. The two teams above plus Fuquay-Varina and Athens Drive are playoff locks.
4. Panther Creek needs to win this Friday to ensure they go to the playoffs, and Lee County needs to upset Fuquay to have that be a possibility.
5. Cary has five wins, which should be good to be in the playoffs.. but as you'll see below, five wins may not be good enough this year.
Got all that? Good. After a ton of research since the NCHSAA released its average daily membership (ADM) numbers, I've determined what playoff bracket our teams are likely to play in when the playoffs start in two weeks. And what needs to happen for Panther Creek and Lee County to get invites to the big dance.
Here's how the selection process works:
1. The NCHSAA selects 64 playoff-eligible teams from each of the classifications, including the 4-A classification.
2. Those 64 teams are cut in half by their ADM numbers. The half with the larger populations is the 4-AA playoffs, and the lower is in the 4-A playoffs.
3. The next step is to split the teams into East and West.
4. Any teams that played 11 games (the first game of the year being an "endowment" game), will have one non-conference game dropped from their record. If a team didn't lose a non-conference game, it will have a win dropped, but everyone else will have a loss dropped.
5. With modified records, the NCHSAA will seed the playoffs, with conference champions (arranged in order from most wins to fewest) being seeded first. The rest of the teams fill in lastly.
It's complicated, and I sure as heck wouldn't want to be the guy who has to figure it all out. Especially since there are currently 75 4-A teams in position to be playoff-eligible going into Friday. There are six three-win teams, including Smithfield-Selma and Clayton — who will play each other. Another eight teams have four wins and will be looking for five. That's 14 teams vying for three spots. Typically, five wins puts you in the playoffs, but if enough of these four-win teams win, that won't be the case.
Now here's what you need to know in regards to the two divisions of 4-A playoffs (the school's ADM rank out of the 96 4-A schools will be in parentheses):
1. Panther Creek (15th) and Cary (27th), should they make it into the playoffs, will be in the 4-AA bracket.
2. Fuquay-Varina (37th) has the 31st-highest ADM for any of the 75 teams in position for the playoffs, which means no matter who makes it, they'll be in the 4-AA playoffs.
3. Middle Creek (55th) and Holly Springs (52nd) are locks for the 4-A playoff bracket.
4. Athens Drive (50th) could go either way. They've got the 40th-highest ADM number of the 75, and nine "bubble" teams are ranked ahead of them. If eight or nine of them fail to reach the playoffs, Athens is in the 4-AA playoffs. Anything less puts them in the 4-A.
5. Lee County (92nd) is destined for the 4-A playoffs should they get in.
