We're going to do one more football playoff projection. In case you missed them, here is the 4AA and 4A football playoff projections if the season were to end today as well as ones for the 3AA and 3A.
We're going to do 2A and 2AA next, but won't do a 1A and 1AA one. We only have one Triangle-area 1A football team (Princeton) and there isn't much guesswork in those brackets when 64 of the 77 football-playing schools make the playoffs each year.
A few disclaimers before we begin:
1) These are done as if the regular season ended today. There is too much guesswork for us to pick who wins every game across the state in the final two weeks.
2) These aren't perfect because we don't have this year's official Average Daily Membership numbers (ADMs), but we do have better numbers than we would in "normal" years. See, when the NCHSAA set its realignment for the 2013-17 school years last spring, many ADMs were updated. Take Corinth Holders for example. In last year's football playoffs they were listed with an ADM of 999. For realignment, they were listed with an ADM of about 1,300.
3) For the sake of this projection, when there were two teams tied for a conference position, we gave the nod to teams who have better overall records (like Rocky Mount ahead of Southern Nash) or a higher regional ranking (like Triton ahead of South Johnston, etc).
An asterisk* lets you know that this team has 11 scheduled games and was perfect in non-conference action, so it will have to drop a win. A 10-1 team who must drop a non-conference win is the same position as a 9-2 team that will drop a non-conference loss.
ALSO: there is a special note with 3A. South Brunswick is not having a good year, but gets an automatic playoff bid because it is the second 3A team in a 3A/2A split league. They have the right to refuse a bid if they think it is undeserving.
- Starmount (8-0), East Lincoln (9-0)*, Carrboro (9-0)*, Northside-Jax (9-0)*, Holmes (8-0), Tarboro (8-0), South Iredell (8-1)
- Madison (8-1)*, North Surry (7-1), Reidsville (7-1), High Point Andrews (7-1), Forest Hills (7-2)
- St. Pauls (6-3), Salisbury (6-2)
- Bunn (5-3), East Bladen (5-3), Shelby (5-4)
- Smoky Mountain (3-6)
- East Duplin (8-1), Northeastern (8-1)
- Polk County (7-2), South Columbus (7-2), Franklinton (7-2), Wilkes Central (7-1)
- Eastern Randolph (6-3), North Pitt (6-3), South Granville (6-3)
- East Burke (5-4), Chase (5-4)
- Carver (4-4), Lincolnton (4-5), West Stokes (4-5), Piedmont (4-5)
- Thomasville (3-6), Pisgah (3-6)
- Maiden (6-3), Topsail (6-3)
- Wheatmore (5-4)
- Louisburg (4-4), SW Edgecombe (4-5), Northwood (4-5), Jordan-Matthews (4-5)
- Lexington (3-6)
- Newton-Conover (6-3), North Brunswick (6-3)
- Bandys (5-4), Bertie (5-4), Randleman (5-4), Bunker Hill (5-4), Kinston (5-4), First Flight (5-3)
- Croatan (4-4), Beddingfield (4-4), Owen (4-5), Clinton (4-5), East Rutherford (4-5), Warren County (4-5), Providence Grove (4-5), Draughn (4-5), West Lincoln (4-5), Swansboro (4-5)
- Corinth Holders (3-6) 3-2
- Cuthbertson (3-6) 2-3, Richlands (3-6) 2-3
Just missing the cut
- North Johnston (3-6) 2-3, Cummings (3-5) 2-3, Roanoke Rapids (3-6) 2-3
- Ashe County (3-6) 2-4
- Central Davidson (3-6) 0-3, West Davidson (3-5) 0-3
The dividing line for 2AA/2A, based on last year's realignment numbers was pretty close. Carrboro, Bertie, Chase and Northeastern and Cummmings were the five smallest 2AA teams while East Duplin, Beddingfield, Croatan and Salisbury were the largest 2A teams. And Carrboro only had 18 more students than Salisbury.
Note that there are eight teams who are either 3-6 or 3-5. The first tiebreaker is conference record, which puts Corinth Holders (3-2 in its league) in but leaves five other teams with equal 2-3 conference records. In this case, we did a draw just as the NCHSAA would do. Obviously, this will have a big affect on the bracket. If North Johnston and Roanoke Rapids made it in, there would be one fewer team in the west and it would have a ripple effect.
- 1-Northeastern vs 8-Richlands
- 2-North Pitt vs 7-Swansboro
- 3-Topsail vs 6-Kinston (or Bertie)
- 4-SouthWest Edgecombe vs 5-Bertie (or Kinston)
- 1-Carrboro vs 8-Corinth Holders
- 2-St. Pauls vs 7-North Brunswick
- 3-Bunn vs 6-Northwood
- 4- Franklinton vs 5-South Granville
- 1-South Iredell vs 8-Cuthbertson
- 2-High Point Andrews (or NS or Reidsville or FH) vs 7-Piedmont (or WS)
- 3-Reidsville (or HPA or NS or FH) vs 6-West Stokes (or Piedmont)
- 4-North Surry (or Reidsville or HPA or FH) vs 5-Forest Hills (or Reidsville, HPA, NS)
- 1-Shelby vs 8-West Lincoln
- 2-Smoky Mountain vs 7-Bunker Hill (or Bandys)
- 3-Chase (or East Burke) vs 6-Bandys (or Bunker Hill)
- 4-East Burke (or Chase) vs 5-Pisgah
- 1-Northside-Jax (or Tarboro or Holmes) vs 8-Warren County (or Croatan, Beddingfield)
- 2-Tarboro (or N-J or Holmes) vs 7-Croatan (or Beddingfield, WC)
- 3-Holmes (or N-J or Tarboro) vs 6-Beddingfield (or Croatan, WC)
- 4-East Duplin vs 5-First Flight
- 1-East Bladen vs 8-Providence Grove (or Clinton)
- 2-South Columbus vs 7-Clinton (or PG)
- 3-Eastern Randolph vs 6-Randleman
- 4-Louisburg (or J-M) vs 5-Jordan-Matthews (or Louisburg)
- 1-Starmount (or EL, Salisbury) vs 8-Lexington
- 2-East Lincoln (or Starmount, Salisbury) vs 7-Thomasville
- 3-Salisbury (or EL, Starmount) vs 6-Carver
- 4-Wilkes Central vs 5-Wheatmore
- 1-Madison vs 8-Eastern Randolph (or Owen or Draughn)
- 2-Polk County 7-Draughn (or ER or Owen)
- 3-Lincolnton 6-Owen (or ER or Draughn)
- 4-Maiden vs 5-Newton-Conover