Tomorrow morning at 8:30 the government will release the jobs number for April, its best estimate of how many nonfarm jobs were added during the month. We will have it on our web site as soon as we get it.
This is an intensely political number. A good number is good for President Obama, because he can make the case that his economic policies are helping the recovery in the job market. A bad number is good for Mitt Romney, who will be able to keep saying that the Obama policies have been a drag on the recovery.
But what's a good number? Well, that depends, and that means both the Obama administration and the Romney campaign may argue - based on the same jobs number - that they are each right.
The Bloomberg survey of around 82 economists has a median of 160,000 jobs created. That ranges from a low of 82,000 from one economist to a high of 210,000 from another economist.
Frankly, even if the number is 210,000, that's not impressive. And just as frankly, this has been a pretty mediocre recovery. That's not news, but we have gotten used to monthly numbers between 100,000 and 250,000 new jobs, and, really, we should be seeing 300,000 and 400,000 and 500,000 new jobs being created each month. The new normal is pretty weak.
In 2008, you may recall, things started going downhill fast in the final year of the George W. Bush presidency. In the winter of 2008, the layoffs started, began accelerating in the spring and summer, and then the economy fell off a clif in the fall of 2008, when everything seized up, credit froze, banks started failing, and people were getting laid off left and right. In one month, January 2009, the economy lost 818,000 jobs. From February 2008 through February 2010, a two-year stretch, the economy shed nearly 8.8 million jobs.
By the spring of 2010, most of the bleeding had stopped. There were still some bad months, but the massive layoffs slowed down, which meant that the hiring that was going on was able to create some net new job growth in the economy. Since March 2010, the economy has added nearly 3.6 million jobs.
But you do the math. We lost 8.8 million jobs from February 2008 through February 2010. And we have added 3.6 million since March 2010. That leaves a deficit of 5.2 million jobs. If we are adding at the rate of 200,000 a month - which would be optimistic - then it will take many years to get back to even.
That is essentially the Republican argument, that the Obama administration's health care plan and excess regulation and environmental obsession have put a huge wet blanket on the economy. Companies are afraid to invest in jobs because they don't know how the new health care regime will affect them. The president's Keystone decision stopped the creation of thousands of new construction jobs. The president's tax proposals are damaging to investor confidence. Things could be a whole lot better. That's what the Republicans say.
The president's response is that he inherited a huge mess from the Republicans and things are getting better, and do you want to hand the reins back to the folks who got us in this hole in the first place? In other words, things could be a whole lot worse.
Which, frankly, isn't a terrific bumper sticker. "Re-elect Obama: Things could be worse.".
When you can come to our web site tomorrow morning and see the jobs numbers, you can decide for yourself which argument you buy.
Here's what I believe: the outcome of the presidential election this November will hinge on the next five monthly jobs numbers, including tomorrow's report, because if we don't start seeing some really big job gains by August, what happens in September and October won't matter. Enough people will stop buying the "Things could be worse" argument" and take a flier on Romney's "Things could be a whole lot better" argument.
(George H.W. Bush found this out the hard way in '92. He thought things were looking up that fall. Voters didn't feel it. Clinton's people recited the mantra "It's the economy, stupid," and they were dead on.)
Forget about all the other chatter and noise. Block out the one-day kerfluffles, the gaffes, the cable stories. Five monthly jobs reports between tomorrow morning and Friday morning, Sept. 7, the day of the Labor Department's August employment statistics release, will play the dominant role in determining whether Mitt Romney will be moving his stuff into the Oval Office on the afternoon of Jan. 20 next.
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