The Hurricanes sit today at 33-27-5, effectively two points out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They hope Wednesday's trade for Erik Cole will help them close the gap. A little statistical analysis shows what a tall order it's going to be.
As things stand now, 92 points looks like it would get the Canes into the playoffs. To guarantee it, sportsclubstats says the Canes would have to get to 95, although 94 and 93 should do it.
Let's stick with 92 for now, ironically the same total they had last year that fell short. To get there, they'll have to go 10-6-1 the rest of the way. That's an improvement of 0.145 points per game, or about 11 over the course of a full season.
For purposes of comparison, the Peter Laviolette-for-Paul Maurice coaching change has accounted for an improvement of about six points over the course of a full season, so the Cole trade is going to have to have twice the impact of the coaching change, in a much shorter time period, to get the Canes into the playoffs.
(Not sure whether that indicates how much work the Canes have ahead of them, or how little impact the coaching change had. Debate amongst yourselves.)
Luke has worked for The N&O since 2000. He covered the Carolina Hurricanes and the NHL before becoming a sports columnist in August 2008. A native of Evanston, Ill., he graduated from the University of Pennsylvania. He can be reached at 829-8947 or 
Comments
That aforementioned website
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 15:46 — mokimanoThat aforementioned website had the Canes chances of making the playoffs last year at 90% or higher for the last 5 games of the season and they still failed to get the job done in the end. The Jekyl&Hyde mentality of this team has to stop if they have any chance of getting in this year. Win one lose one, and forget it...they need to go on a roll and knock out a stretch of something like 7-2-1 in the next 10 to actually have a great chance at the post season.
We are in if.......... (numbers)
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 10:20 — Hockeydad92The team shows up just 75% of the time left. With Cole now in the line up odds are good, with something on the line Cole shows up about 60% of the time anyway. We just need Cam, Staal, Sammy, Juicy, Patrick etc. to elevate from their normal 50% to 75%. This assumes we continue to get our standard 100% from Chad and Ruutu...
Bottom line in my option:
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 09:06 — RaisinCaneBottom line in my option: Which team shows up for the stretch run.. the 'Canes that recently handled the Sabres and the Caps OR the 'Canes that had their butts handed to them by the lowly thrashers!!! Cole of course is a new variable in this equation and we won't know what impact that will have yet. Will it be Cole version 2002/2005 or Cole version 2007?
Will be tough
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 08:30 — Canes7317 games remaining:
NJ X3 (home/away/away)
NYI X2 (both @ home)
NYR X2 (both @ home)
WAS X2 (away/home)
CGY (home)
TB (away)
CHI (away)
DAL (away)
FLA (away)
OTT (home)
PIT (home)
BUF (home)
It is a tough schedule for sure and the Canes have their work cut out for them. It will come down to how well the Canes play at home. 10@home and 7 on the road. Hopefully, the Cole trade helps. It should - as at least he will be playing now. Williams will still be out for a little while yet and he wasn't playing up to his full potential anyway. That's not to say he wouldn't get back his performance back, it's just that the Canes don't really have time to wait. However, it will really hurt next year if the Canes can't sign Cole. I have to think JR is confident they can re-sign him or he wouldn't have pulled the trigger - I hope.
Just get in
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 06:25 — hckseyJust get in Cam has proven he can get on a roll. It will be tough though the schedule does not favor us at all. Let's just hope MO wakes up and starts playing the right guys ( no Brindy please ) he needs to be the odd man out.
Prediction
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 01:31 — penaltykiller74Looking at the other teams schedules in the east, and how they would play out, I'm predicting the Canes in the playoffs at 7th with 93 points.
Our schedule may be tough, but you also have to look at other teams schedules as well.
They will have it tough too, not everyone is playing Ottawa and the Islanders for the rest of the season.
Onward and Upward
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 00:31 — scomilThere are only 4 points separating 6 teams between 5th place and 10th place in the East. The 5 teams above the Canes either pretty much stood pat or, in the case of the rapidly sinking Rangers, made radical changes. Buffalo and Pittsburgh have their main stars out due to injury and did not significantly do anything to improve their chances. If the Canes improve at all they could easily end up in 6th which would put them against the Caps. Even Montreal in 5th place is having their problems and is only 4 points ahead of us. A 4-point swing can happen in no time. My point is that it is a big tossup in the bottom half of the East so if you're one of the teams that improves you are looking good.
Anybody's guess is as good
Wed, 03/04/2009 - 21:46 — caneshockeyfanAnybody's guess is as good as mine. I certainly hope they make the playoffs. But finishing 8th and going up against the Bruins in the first round might be as demoralizing as missing the playoffs altogether.
I disagree. I think simply
Thu, 03/05/2009 - 00:10 — irbefanI disagree. I think simply making the playoffs this season will be a success. A nice building block towards next year. We've played the Bruins close this year too (dispite the scores).