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Bowl Predictions, Nov. 16

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Florida State's loss to Boston College really shakes up the ACC bowl picture. I now project the Seminoles finishing fourth in their division, making it impossible for the Gator Bowl to jump over three teams and take Florida State. No other surprises this week, really -- everything remains on track for a Virginia Tech-Maryland matchup in Tampa, as it has for weeks.

Tulsa and East Carolina both lost this weekend, but they're still on target to meet in the Conference USA title game as long as ECU wins one of its final two games. They hold the tie-breaker over Memphis and the rest of the East Division stinks. It could get really interesting if Houston wins at Rice on Nov. 29, which would move the Cougars past Tulsa and throw the C-USA bowl picture into a mess. Until that happens, though, ECU's still likely to end up in Mobile on Jan. 6.

Conference USA's hopes of filling its sixth bowl spot rest on Marshall (5-5), Southern Mississippi (5-6) and UTEP (5-5), but all three face tough finishing schedules.

ACC

Orange Bowl -- Virginia Tech
Peach Bowl -- North Carolina
Gator Bowl -- Maryland
Champs Bowl -- Wake Forest
Music City Bowl -- Georgia Tech
Meineke (Charlotte) Bowl -- Boston College
Emerald Bowl -- Florida State
Humanitarian Bowl -- Miami
Eagle (Congressional) Bowl -- Virginia

CONFERENCE USA

Liberty Bowl -- Tulsa
GMAC Bowl -- East Carolina
Texas Bowl -- Rice
Armed Forces Bowl -- Houston
New Orleans Bowl -- Memphis
St. Petersburg Bowl -- open

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C-USA

Canes fan and Southern Miss grad.

Luke I don't know why you think Southern Miss has a tough remaining schedule - the only game left is against a 1-10 SMU team.

Should they win, and SMU looks incredibly bad right now so odds are good, Southern Miss will either go to New Orleans (if Troy is picked as the Sun Belt rep) or St Petersburg (if Louisiana-Lafayette is picked--USM destoryed ULL opening week). Memphis will go to the other destination.

S. Miss-SMU

Yeah, I probably shounldn't have lumped them in with the other two. According to Sagarin, the Eagles should be a 15-point road favorite.

But they do have to go on the road with a bowl bid on the line, and they're 2-3 on the road with losses at Marshall and Memphis, so it's not a total gimme.

Which is it?

Luke, your comment that "No other surprises this week, really -- everything remains on track for a Virginia Tech-Maryland matchup in Tampa, as it has for weeks" is either depressingly ignorant or insanely optimistic. Honestly, I can't tell which. Did you watch any ball this past week. Maybe check out the Miami - Ga. Tech game this coming Thursday for the real prognostication.

really?

Only one road team won this week: Boston College at Florida State. That, to me, was a surprise. Other than that, what's left? Wake losing at State? I wouldn't have been surprised if the Deacons had won, but it's hardly shocking they lost to a surging, healthier Wolfpack.

Now, if Miami wins at Georgia Tech, I'll be mildly surprised (and that would seriously impact the bowl picture). But we'll see what happens Thursday night.

As for the VT-Maryland title game, my predictions have been pointing that direction for the past four weeks. Nothing that's happened in the interim has changed that.

Still lookin' good for me

I'd love to smell the Orange blossoms, but Atlanta is hard to beat.

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About the blogger

Luke has worked for The N&O since 2000. He covered the Carolina Hurricanes and the NHL before becoming a sports columnist in August 2008. A native of Evanston, Ill., he graduated from the University of Pennsylvania. He can be reached at (919) 829-8947, @LukeDeCock on Twitter or luke.decock@newsobserver.com.
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