More travel or less travel for Labor Day? Both, AAA says.

Will North Carolina highways be busier this Labor Day weekend? Or less busy? The answer is: Compared to what?

AAA is saying it both ways.

The AAA Motor Club put out its national holiday travel forecast on Aug. 26 and said Labor Day travel will be 'way down compared to Labor Day 2008. About 876,000 North Carolinians plan road trips this year, compared to 1.02 million last year, AAA said. Bad news.

Then on Sept. 1 the AAA Carolinas subsidiary, based in Charlotte, reported that Labor Day travel will be 'way up -- compared to Memorial Day 2009 travel. Good news.

It's hard to know which comparison is more appropriate. And it's hard to know how much faith to put in AAA travel forecasts, anyway.

Until this year, AAA's numbers came from pre-holiday surveys conducted by AAA and the Travel Industry Association. They asked people whether they planned to take trips for the holidays.

But apparently AAA never came back later to ask people whether they actually made those trips. Each year's forcast was compared to last year's forecast -- not last year's actual travel numbers.

Now AAA's forecast is based on different research and survey methods from a group called IHS Global Insight. And now we have numbers from IHS on how many people actually traveled for Labor Day last year.

Last year AAA predicted that 720,300 North Carolinians would travel by car for Labor Day. Now AAA says the actual number was 1,016,000 -- that's 41 percent more than the forecast.

This year, gas is cheaper than it has been for any Labor Day since 2004, and $1.11 a gallon less than it was last year. But AAA says fewer of us will take holiday trips (compared to the actual Labor Day 2008 numbers, anyway).

To reduce highway construction delays, the state Department of Transportation will suspend road work across the state this weekend, with four exceptions that might cause some bottlenecks:

* Interstate 85 in Vance County, one lane open in each direction between mile markers 206 and 214.

* Exits 25 and 33 on I-95 in Robeson County, closed for bridge repair.

* I-85 at N.C. 62, Exit 113, near High Point. One of three lanes closed in each direction.

* U.S. 220 South at the Randolph / Montgomery county line. One lane closed in each direction.

State troopers will be ticketing speeders and aggressive drivers on the state highways this weekend. During the 2008 Labor Day weekend the Highway Patrol investigated 1,140 crashes involving 582 injuries and 13 deaths.

Dial 511 or visit www.ncdot.gov/travel/ to check traffic conditions.

Dial *HP (star 47) on a mobile phone to report problems to the Highway Patrol.