North Carolina economic indicators for the rest of the year are at their lowest point in 2011, further evidence that the state's economy is slowing down.

The index of leading economic indicators, issued today by N.C. State University economist Michael Walden, shows that four of five measures declined. That means that the economic forecast for the next four to six months dropped by 0.8 percent in July.

But despite the gloomy numbers, the Walden Index numbers were still up 1.5 percent over July a year ago. As a result, Walden has not crossed over to the camp that is predicting a double-dip recession.

"I'm still in the camp that thinks we'll avoid an 'official' recession by keeping GDP [gross domestic product] growth just above negative rates - that is, low, but still positive," he said. "Still, to the average person, it feels like a recession."

The state's economic health stayed flat from October to November, signaling a continued anemic economic recovery in 2011.

That's the prognosis from N.C. State University economist Michael Walden, who compiles and parses leading economic indicators for the state each month.

The North Carolina economic index was 1.2 percent higher in November from a year ago, but it would have to be at 4 percent for the economy to merit a robust diagnosis. The Chinese economy, for example, has been growing at an annual rate of 8 percent to 10 percent for the past decade.

If you don't like the pace of the state's economic recovery so far, get ready for more of the same for at least the next two years.

Michael Walden, an economic forecaster at N.C. State University, said the economy will continue its painful slog as long as households remain frugal and in a saving mode.

"We're not seeing a fast bounce-back," Walden said. "There's no one out there who's seeing 6 percent or 5 percent unemployment anytime soon."

Walden issued his twice-yearly economic forecast today. He said his projections match the lackluster economic forecasts of government economists at the Federal Reserve and private economists at Wells Fargo.

My favorite Frontline producer Ofra Bikel has a new film on tonight at 9 on UNC-TV.

(Extra programming note: on UNC-ED "Endgame" repeats at 9 tonight.)

Bikel lives in New York's Upper East Side, one of the ritziest neighborhoods in the country.

She figures that the recession's impact is not really being felt there.

Until she talks to Deborah Boles, the owner of Deborah Hair Design, Bikel's longtime hair salon.

A Triangle assembler of irrigation systems is the latest manufacturer in the state to fall victim to the prolonged recession.

Hunter Industries has notified the state Department of Commerce that it will shut down its Cary facility this year and lay off 76 people. The planned closure was forced by economic conditions as the company is consolidating operations at its corporate headquarters in California.

The privately-held company selected Cary in 1990 for its East Cost manufacturing and distribution site and began operations here in 1992.

Hunter Industries, founded in 1981, specializes in professional irrigation systems for landscape contractors and golf courses. It employs more than 1,000 people worldwide, according to its web site.

Where do Raleigh and Durham rank among the U.S. cities that are most likely to emerge as a "youth magent" after the recession?

According to the Wall Street Journal, 8th, just behind Denver and ahead of Dallas. (It's unclear whether this list was compiled before or after SparkCon.)

When we first heard about the list, published today in the Journal, two words came to mind: Richard Florida.

Sure enough, Florida, author of "The Rise of the Creative Class," was among the six experts the Journal asked to rank the 10 U.S. cities most likely to emerge as a "youth magnet" after the recession.

Most of the cities on the list won't come as a surprise to those who place value on these municipal rankings. At the top of the list are Washington D.C. and Seattle, followed by New York City, Portland, Ore., Austin, San Jose, Denver, Raleigh-Durham, Dallas, and Chicago and Boston (tied for 10th.)

It seems worth noting that Raleigh-Durham is the only region on this list. Maybe all these list makers just think Raleigh and Durham have merged to create a supercity that draws in the young and the hip with a tractor beam powered by a secret data center located underneath the hyphen connecting the two.

We're this close to seeing Bert and Ernie out on the street corner holding up "Will flop around for food" signs, so it's no wonder that the theme of economic hardship is seeping into the storylines of so many primetime television shows these days.  

The New York Times has an interesting story here about all the primetime TV shows writing the Recession into the lives of their characters. For instance, on The Simpons, Homer is facing foreclosure on his home, while Tom and Lynette had to close down their restaurant on Desperate Housewives. Even procedural crime dramas such as Law & Order and Lie to Me are getting on board, writing crime stories involving characters working for failed mortgage companies and crooks based on Bernie Madoff.

The networks are also developing new shows based on the Recession. So much for escapism.

The Inter-Faith Council pantry in Carrboro received more than 900 request for food during the first week of February and last week had many empty shelves.

This week's most urgent food needs at the food pantry are for donations of spaghetti pasta and sauce; other non-perishable items such as canned tuna, canned meats, soups, rice, beans, canned vegetables, canned fruits, juice, dry milk, cereals (hot and dry); as well as diapers, soap, tooth paste, tooth brushes, shampoo and related personal hygiene items.

The IFC & its Food Pantry for donations or assistance is located at 110 W. Main St. in Carrboro. For more information call 929-6380.

Reader Molly McConnell says you can also drop off donations in the IFC basket in the parish office at Chapel of The Cross, 304 E. Franklin St., next door to the Morehead Planetarium parking, Monday through Friday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. or Sundays in the baskets at the entrance to the church as well as in the office from 8:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.

For a complete list of Orange County food pantries, click here and scroll all the way down.   

The common denominator these days among the job-seeking students walking through Tim Stiles’ door appears to be a frown.

These are not good times to be graduating from college and looking for a job. Stiles, associate director of UNC Chapel Hill’s career services office, is tasked with advising these frustrated students.

It isn’t easy. I gave Stiles a call to find out what the landscape is like right now.

It’s not so rosy, he reports.

Fewer recruiters are coming to campus, and fewer interviews are being set up with students. Jobs in finance, right in the wheelhouse for so many UNC-CH students graduating from the university’s business programs, are scarce. Banks are too busy being bailed out to hire. Some companies with openings are accepting applications but aren’t spending the money to send recruiting teams to campuses.

“Some students are really frustrated and angry,” Stiles said. “Some of my business majors truly have tried and have nothing to show for it.”

While fewer recruiters are coming to campus, many still make at least an appearance, show the flag, maintain a presence. So the recession’s real residue here can be found in the number of interviews scheduled; In the fall of 2007, companies conducted more than 2,400 interviews with UNC-CH students; this past fall, that number dropped to around 2,000, a notable slide. Fall is generally the hottest time of the year for recruitment.

For students, it’s reality-check time, Stiles says. When times are good, top students can be choosy, picking among high-paying jobs based on salary, job description and location. But now, job-seekers should be less selective, Stiles says. Be willing to move for work, or perhaps broaden your parameters and be open to work in industries other than what you’ve focused on.

One example: The Aldi supermarket chain offers entry-level pay of $70,000 for grocery store managers. The catch is that these employees manage not 1 but often 3 small stores. It’s a lot of work, Stiles said, but the experience comes fast and wide - human resources, marketing, sales, management.

Consulting firms are also still hiring employees to do contract work, and there are temporary jobs out there as well, Stiles said. These are known as “bridge jobs.” You may not want to do it forever, but: “For students with loans coming due, you have to look at that as an alternative,” he said.

There is still work out there in health care, accounting and teaching, Stiles adds.

“There are some industries still doing well,” he told me. “I don’t want to give the impression that it’s coming to a grinding halt.”

City Manager Tom Bonfield told Bull's Eye the other day that he's withholding full disclosure on the city's money situation until next Friday's City Council financial retreat.

But he did say, "The numbers are certainly getting worse." And there are some indications of the word to come in the talking points prepared for Bonfield's visit to the Triangle Community Coalition's annual meeting today.