The New York Times published a story that our real estate reporter, David Bracken, has been writing about for months, if not longer.
The housing industry is experiencing a standoff of sorts. There is a shortage of single-family homes for sale around the country. We have been seeing this in the Triangle. But it is a strange kind of shortage that doesn't seem to result in a big jump in prices or a buyer frenzy. It is as if supply and demand are existing in different economic universes. Let me explain.
At the end of February, there were 7,515 homes on the market here. That was 20 percent down from last year and 40 percent down from two years ago, according to Triangle Multiple Listing Services data. That means that this area has a five-month supply of homes for sale.
But the average sales price of a home is up just 1 percent and a crucial metric, the number of days a home stays on the market, continues to drop but is still at 117 days.
So, while the Times story suggests that in some markets around the country sellers are getting multiple offers, prices are jumping and the homes are flying off the shelf, something is still holding this market back.
I think that's because the Triangle housing market is still recovering. There is an undercurrent of buyers and sellers still groping around, trying to get a bead on things.
Unemployment, by Triangle standards, is still very high, at 7.7 percent at year end. At the end of 2006, the Raleigh-Cary-Durham jobless rate hovered at 3.5 percent. People without jobs don't buy houses. OK, maybe they did during the subprime days of yore when you could get a mortgage by fogging up a mirror. But not today.
There are other wet blankets on the market. Buyers and sellers are playing a waiting game. People who bought a house back in the mid-2000's for, say, $250,000, may be sitting on real estate that is now just worth $220,000. They may owe more than their house is worth, and sellers don't want to come to the closing table having to write a check to pay off the mortgage balance that the sales price doesn't cover. They were raised by their parents to believe that you walk away from closing with money, the equity that has grown over time.
Buyers, for their part, aren't sure that prices have really, finally, absolutely bottomed, despite evidence to the contrary. Somewhere, out there, is a crazy good deal where they can practically steal a house from desperate sellers.
And, believing that they have the upper hand, they want the homes to be brought up to pristine condition.
No nail holes, no carpet stains, no loose hand rails.
So while the things we learned in that 8 a.m. Econ 101 class -- you never missed a lecture, right? -- suggest that we should be reaching equilibrium soon where all buyers and sellers come together where the supply and demand curves intersect at a price they can live with, it hasn't happened. (Editor's note: For the econ professors out there, I know the curves represent "quantity supplied" and "quantity demanded." Don't email me. I was awake in Econ 101. I'm a journalist engaging in shorthand.)
Sellers are on a sort of strike, keeping their homes off the market, and buyers are being tougher than maybe they should be.
The only thing that will deliver a jolt to this impasse is going to be a significant drop in the jobless rate. In other words, more people working. That isn't going to happen fast. A couple of the historic engines of growth in the Triangle were state government and the universities. Well, the Republicans who now control the legislature and the governor's mansion are definitely not interested in boosting the number of public sector employees. The reverse is true.
They will argue that shrinking government leaves more money in the hands of the private sector, and the jobs will be created there. I have no doubt of this, over time. But it will take time for this transition. Someone who loses a government-funded job -- in the state bureaucracy, as a teaching assistant in an elementary school, or at a university -- doesn't walk into a new private sector job overnight. Then there is the sequester, which may cost this area jobs -- we have folks here who commute to Ft. Bragg and to Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, as civilian employees and defense contractors.
And there are plenty of private employers who are uncertain about what Obamacare will mean for them. Will that additional employee push them over some magic number that will increase their health care costs?
I don't want to sound overly pessimistic. Eventually, the market clears. We have been in a five-year funk. It has been so long that people forget what good times feel like. There is a lot of pent-up demand for housing. In the past five years, a lot of kids have graduated from college and are now in their mid-to-late 20s, and they are forming families and they want a backyard. A lot of folks who bought starter homes back in 2008 want to move up to a bigger house. The Triangle is still growing; Raleigh-Cary is still one of the fastest growing areas in the country.
So the housing market will continue to stabilize, prices will be firming up and rising, and more sellers and buyers will come to terms. Just how fast is tough to gauge, but things are a heck of a lot better than they were a few years ago.

The N.C. Employment Security Commission is now accepting applications for jobs at the N.C. State Fair.

The ESC generally fills between 200 and 400 jobs each year, said ESC spokesman Larry Parker. Wages range from minimum wage to $11 to $12 an hour for jobs requiring specific skills, such as assembling or breaking down the rides.

People interested in the jobs must apply in person at any ESC office (find them here). When applying reference job code number NC7269750 for set-up and tear-down jobs or NC7269751 for retail, food service, ticket taking and other related jobs.

The State Fair will run Oct. 14 to Oct. 24 this year. The ESC will start contacting applicants in early October if they want to hire them for the fair.

Headway Corporate Resources announced today that it will hire 8,400 people for seasonal holiday retail workers. Last year, it hired 7,300 employees for the holidays.

Headway, which is based in Raleigh, said it is expecting to screen 80,000 employees for jobs as store managers, district managers, merchandisers, sales associates, area supervisors, inventory clerks, contact center professionals and distribution center workers.

Headway does not release the names of all of the retailers with which it works. But Headway has announced that it works with certain companies, including seasonal mall favorite Hickory Farms, Casual Male and Toys R Us.

Those wishing to apply to Headway for consideration can fill out an online application at https://www.headwaycorp.com/job_seekers/index.aspx.

Good jobs are hard to find. With the current level of unemployment, there are more competitors out there vying for fewer positions. It can difficult to be noticed amid a flood of applicants. You have to be adaptive, plugged-in, and quick on your feet these days. Unplggd has put together a list of iPhone apps to help.

Hundreds of eager job seekers crowded a pair of job fairs in Raleigh today, distributing their resumes, networking, reinventing themselves and praying for luck.

Some have been looking for a job only a month, while others have been at it over two years. They all had similar results to report: intense competition, exacting job qualifications and few bites.

At the job fair held in Raleigh's new convention center, job seekers crowded booths and stood in line.

"Too many people, not enough jobs," said John Kopala, a 48-year-old Cary resident who's been out of work two years since getting laid off from Nortel Networks. "I see the jobs out there, but they don't go anywhere."

Nearby, the Monster.com Keep America Working Tour made its second stop in Raleigh this year, hosting a job fair with employers from Aaron's to UNC-Chapel Hill.

U.S. employers announced plans to cut 76,456 jobs in August, the second-lowest level of the year, according to the latest tally by Chicago-based research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The August total was the sixth time in the past seven months that job cuts declined from the previous month. August was 21 percent lower than July, when 97,373 layoffs were announced.

August was also the third month in a row that job cuts were lower than the same month last year.

The Challenger report comes ahead of the Labor Department's monthly data on the U.S. jobs market, to be released Friday. And it gives another sign that the worst of the recession's impact on employment may be easing.

Still, the situation for workers and job seekers could get worse during the final four months of the year. That's typically the time when companies cut the most, to improve their balance sheets at year-end, said John Challenger, CEO of the research firm.

"If monthly job-cut levels remain near 100,000 or lower, it will be a strong indication that the economy and job market are improving," he said, in a prepared statement. "That does not necessarily mean that there will be a sudden surge in job creation as 2010 gets underway, but we will at least be heading in the right direction."

This region's unemployment rate remains high, but it's still healthier than most of the state and much of the nation.

In July, joblessness in the Triangle fell to 8.3 percent from 8.5 percent a month earlier. That's according to data released this morning by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte.

The state's rate stayed flat at 11 percent in July, and the national rate was 9.4 percent.

The jobless rate is a key measure of the broader economy, as people who are out of work don't shop as much and can run into trouble paying their mortgages and other bills.

While local job seekers still face tough odds as many companies remain reluctant to hire, the latest data is another sign of pending recovery.

"It's still a case of things getting less bad, not things getting better," said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo. "We're closer to the point where we're going to see some job growth. Businesses are seeing some signs of life in the economy."

In Charlotte, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 11.5 percent in July from 11.9 percent in June.

When you're a tech company CEO in Research Triangle Park looking to hire 25 new sales staff and other employees, some free national publicity can't hurt.

The Wall Street Journal, in its front-page story this morning about July's U.S. jobs report, cited ChannelAdvisor as an example of employers that are slowly returning to growth mode.

The story also quotes ChannelAdvisor CEO Scot Wingo about his plans to add about 25 new employees by the end of the year.

Raleigh ranks No. 18 on a new Forbes list of the best cities for working moms.

The list, part of the ForbesWoman section, was compiled using factors such as jobs, salaries, cost of living, health care, public parks and more.

The authors cited Raleigh's low crime rates and strong public school system.

Triangle joblessness dropped in June, adding to optimism that the worst of the recession is over.

Unemployment for the eight-county area that includes Durham, Johnston, Orange and Wake counties fell to 8.5 percent from 8.8 percent in May.

That's according to figures reported this morning by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wells Fargo in Charlotte.

"Given the magnitude of this drop it is hard to dismiss it," said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities. "Layoffs appear to have peaked in the private sector, but we still expect hiring to remain sluggish as businesses continue to focus on cost cutting."