A leading economist doesn't expect Hurricane Irene to push the country into recession, although he notes that the fragile economy can't handle many big surprises.

"Even if it causes $10 billion in insured damages, that's a shock we can live with," Wells Fargo Securities senior economist Mark Vitner said in a phone interview today. "If it causes $50 billion and shuts down the East Coast and sends the cost of oil soaring, that may be too much of a shock."

Vitner said there's a one in three chance of the economy slipping back into recession during the next year.

Since economic growth has slowed to less than 2 percent, "we just don't have that much margin for error," Vitner said. "Any unforeseen shock, that might be enough to push us into recession.

"Absent that, we see the economy continuing to grow," he added.

The Triangle's job market continues to outshine the rest of the state, but bleak unemployment conditions aren't improving as the economic recovery sputters.

This region's jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent in July, according to data released Friday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and seasonally adjusted by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte. That's up from 8.1 percent in June.

Cuts in state government and education are hurting the local economy, and private employers are increasingly reluctant to ramp up hiring, said Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner.

"The cost of making a mistake is much greater in a slower growing economy," Vitner said. "Businesses have become much more hesitant about expanding."

Even in a down economy, many employers recognize the need to provide benefits that help employees maintain their work-life balance, including flexible schedules, on-site daycare and more.

Carolina Parent, working with UNC Chapel Hill's Kenan-Flagler Business School, has released its 13th annual list of the top 50 family friendly companies in North Carolina.

"These companies understand the importance of treating employees with dignity and respect," said Carolina Parent publisher Brenda Larson. "They recognize that if you take care of employees, they will take care of your business."

Many companies use such lists as competitive tools when they're recruiting new employees. That's especially true for tough-to-fill positions in technology and elsewhere.

This region cracks the top 10 (often at No. 1) on so many lists related to jobs, careers, doing business and such.

So it's almost shocking to see Wake County all the way down at No. 15 of Money Magazine's latest list of "Where the jobs are."

To be fair, it's a bit of a lagging indicator. The list of 25 counties is based on job and population growth 2000-2010, as well as places where unemployment was below the national average.

Rockwell County, Texas, came in at No. 1. Loudoun County, Va., was No. 2, and Williamson County, Texas, was No. 3.

The Triangle jobs picture took a turn for the worse in June, confirming the economists' gloomy expectations.

The jobless rate for the Triangle inched up to 8.1 percent, up from 7.8 percent in May.

The regional economy shrunk by 500 jobs.

And the number of people looking for work also decreased by 1,000.

All three measures, issued this morning by the N.C. Employment Commission, show that the Triangle's economy is moving backwards.

"It's hard to be too optimistic," said Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner. "The economy has much less momentum than we previously thought."

North Carolina's jobless rate rose to 9.9 percent in June, the highest level since last fall and the first increase in more than a year.

The increase, from 9.7 percent in May, reflects employers' reluctance to hire as uncertainty about the economic recovery worsens.

And the state budget crunch also took a toll. There were 10,200 fewer government jobs in June, as the state, community colleges and universities eliminated positions.

North Carolina's unemployment rate remains well above the national average, which also rose in June to 9.2 percent. This state has a higher concentration of manufacturing jobs, which were hit hard during the recession.

A year ago, the state rate was 10.5 percent. High fuel costs, a lingering housing slump and other factors have eroded confidence that hiring will rebound quickly in the wake of the recession.

Forbes writers love us, they really love us.

The magazine ranked the Raleigh region as No. 2 on its list of America’s Best Cities For Young Professionals.

It's just the latest in a series of gushing plugs from Forbes in recent weeks, including a No. 1 ranking among the 50 Best Places for Business and Careers, and a No. 2 ranking on its list of the Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S.

For the Young Professionals list, Forbes reviewed 100 metropolitan areas by seven factors, including local unemployment rates, the median salaries for 24- to 34-year-old employed college graduates, and the percentage of the population aged 25 and older with college degrees in the area.
 
"With an abundance of colleges and universities in the area such as University of North Carolina and Duke University, and Research Triangle, a major center for high-tech and biotech research, more than 42% of the local population touts BA degrees, making it the most educated of the cities we looked at," Forbes wrote.

Ironically, the story doesn't mention N.C. State, the biggest university in Raleigh. That's certain to irk Wolfpack fans.

Des Moines came in at No. 1 on the Forbes list. Madison, Wis., was No. 3.

Such lists tend to become self-fulfilling. Making the lists helps attracts residents seeking jobs and businesses considering expansion, which also boosts the local economy. And politicians and economic development officials love using the lists when they market this region as a destination.

Forbes, please stop it, we're blushing.

OK, keep it coming, we really don't mind all the fawning and stroking.

The financial magazine last week ranked Raleigh No. 1 on its list of the 50 Best Places for Business and Careers.

This week, Raleigh comes in as No. 2 on its list of the Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S. Austin is No. 1 and Nashville is No. 3. Charlotte is No. 8.

For the latest accolade, Forbes notes the Raleigh metro area's population growth, job growth, jump in new immigrants and other factors. The magazine also ranks Raleigh as the No. 1 city for families with young children.

Raleigh returns to the No. 1 spot in Forbes' annual list of the 50 Best Places for Business and Careers.

Des Moines, which unseated Raleigh last year for the top spot, dropped to No. 2, followed by Provo, Utah; Lexington, Kent.; and Fort Collins, Colo.

Forbes cited the Raleigh area's proximity to the big three Triangle universities: N.C. State, UNC Chapel Hill and Duke. It also noted this region's low business costs, strong job growth and smart workforce.

North Carolina ranked No. 3 on CNBC's annual list of the Top States for Business, up one spot from last year.

The business TV network ranked all 50 states in 10 broad categories, including cost of doing business, workforce, quality of life and transportation & infrastructure.

North Carolina gained ground in workforce and infrastructure, but took a hit in the economy category. CNBC noted that the state's unemployment rate of 9.7 percent remains above the national average.

Economic recruiters and politicians often use such "best of" lists as they work to lure new businesses to North Carolina. Officials with the N.C. Commerce Department and Research Triangle Park immediately sent out alerts on Twitter about today's CNBC list. And Gov. Bev Perdue's office only took a couple of hours to put out a full press release.

Of course, "We're No. 3" bragging rights only go so far when North Carolina lags No. 2 Texas. What's even harder for N.C. officials to stomach: Virginia came in at No. 1 on CNBC's latest list.