The Triangle's jobless rate crept downward in November as the region added a modest amount of jobs to boost the local economy.

November's 8.1 percent jobless rate is down from 8.7 percent in October, according to data issued today by the N.C. Division of Employment Security. It's one of several measures that suggest the regional and national economy made gains at the end of 2011, said Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner, who seasonally adjusted the data for the N&O.

The Triangle jobless rate remains below the national average of 8.6 percent and the statewide averge of 10 percent. The Triangle includes Raleigh, Cary, Durham, Apex and Chapel Hill among other metro areas.

The Triangle added 1,900 non-farm jobs in November, mostly in education, health services, professional services and retail trade. But Vitner said that behind those growth numbers lurks a downside: Many of the new jobs were not likely the kind of high-paying positions that would signify a healthy economy.

A leading economist doesn't expect Hurricane Irene to push the country into recession, although he notes that the fragile economy can't handle many big surprises.

"Even if it causes $10 billion in insured damages, that's a shock we can live with," Wells Fargo Securities senior economist Mark Vitner said in a phone interview today. "If it causes $50 billion and shuts down the East Coast and sends the cost of oil soaring, that may be too much of a shock."

Vitner said there's a one in three chance of the economy slipping back into recession during the next year.

Since economic growth has slowed to less than 2 percent, "we just don't have that much margin for error," Vitner said. "Any unforeseen shock, that might be enough to push us into recession.

"Absent that, we see the economy continuing to grow," he added.

The Triangle's job market continues to outshine the rest of the state, but bleak unemployment conditions aren't improving as the economic recovery sputters.

This region's jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent in July, according to data released Friday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and seasonally adjusted by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte. That's up from 8.1 percent in June.

Cuts in state government and education are hurting the local economy, and private employers are increasingly reluctant to ramp up hiring, said Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner.

"The cost of making a mistake is much greater in a slower growing economy," Vitner said. "Businesses have become much more hesitant about expanding."

Sen. Phil Berger, who will be elected President Pro Tem of the state Senate when the legislature convenes Jan. 26, has been added to the line up of Monday's Economic Forecast Forum at the Sheraton Imperial and Convention Center in the Research Triangle Park.  

Berger will share his perspective on the economy and quite probably discuss what the state's new Republican-controlled legislature plans to do about the state's $3.7 billion budget shortfall.

The annual event is coordinated by the North Carolina Bankers Association and the North Carolina Chamber. About 1,100 business leaders from across the state are expected to attend.
 
Other speakers include Erskine Bowles, outgoing president of the University of North Carolina system and co-chair of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, and Mark Vitner, senior economist of Wells Fargo Securities.

U.S. Sen. Richard Burr was scheduled but ran into a scheduling conflict and had to bow out.

Registration information can be found here.  For more information about the Economic Forecast Forum, contact Christy Santacana at the NC Bankers Association at christy@ncbankers.org or 1-800-662-7044.

Fresh off his part-time job recommending ways to fix the nation's staggering deficit and his full-time job running the UNC system, Erskine Bowles in early January will share his outlook on the 2011 economy.

Bowles is scheduled as a keynote speaker at the annual prognostication and networking forum sponsored by the N.C. Chamber and N.C. Bankers Association on Jan. 3.

His speech will likely touch on his recent work in Washington as co-chairman of President Barack Obama's budget deficit commission. Given that he is retiring as UNC system president on Dec. 31, there might be some discussion of what's next for the self-described workaholic.

The unemployment rate in the Triangle dropped to 7.5 percent in July, as this region remains the healthiest job market in the state.

The rate is still near historical highs, and thousands of local job seekers aren't finding much relief as employers are still nervous about hiring during a shaky economy.

The July data were released this morning by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte. The local jobless rate was down from a revised 7.6 percent in June.

The Triangle's jobless rate rose slightly in June, reflecting the fragile state of the economic recovery.

This region remains relatively healthy compared with the state and the nation, but the local unemployment rate is high by historical standards.

The rate increased to 8 percent in June from a revised 7.9 percent in May, according to data released today by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner.

The Triangle's jobless rate dropped slightly in November to 8.7 percent, but economists expect it to continue rising into 2010.

The latest rate is based on county-level data released today by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal affects by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte.

The November rate was a small improvement from October's adjusted rate for the Triangle of 8.9 percent. And it was still much stronger than the November state rate of 10.8 percent and national rate of 10 percent.

Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner predicts the Triangle rate to top out at 9.5 percent this summer.

The Triangle's jobless rate stayed flat at 8.9 percent in October, as this region remains healthier than the state and nation.

The latest data was released this morning by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte.

The revised data provides a more statistically valid measure of local unemployment. The ESC adjusts the state rate each month.

North Carolina's jobless rate rose to 11 percent in October, above the national rate of 10.2 percent. National data for November are scheduled to be released Friday.

"The Triangle is weathering the storm better than most metropolitan areas of the country," said Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner. "We've had a few hits, but we've had some positive news that offsets that."

Charlotte's seasonally adjusted rate surged to 12.9 percent in October from 12.3 percent, Vitner reported. That region has a larger concentration of manufacturing, which was hit hard by the recession.

The Triangle's jobless rate was unchanged at 8.4 percent in August, suggesting that while the worst of the recession is easing, employers aren't rushing to hire new workers any time soon.

The latest data were released Friday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte.

The News&Observer uses the adjusted data to provide a more statistically valid measure of local unemployment. The state jobless rate, which fell slightly to 10.8 percent in August, is seasonally adjusted by the Employment Security Commission.

"These numbers show that the unemployment rate appears to be topping out around the state, but the recovery is likely to be very slow," said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo.