I have been thinking about what we are going to need to do for the Jan. 4th paper, when we will run the results of the Iowa caucuses. So I went back to look at the paper from Jan. 4, 2008, to look at what we did then. (This is a lot of how we get started in our thinking; looking at what we did last time. The trap, of couse, is that this isn't the best way to innovate. But anyway.)

I was reminded that four years ago, if Barack Obama wasn't in the race, John Edwards would have probably won the Democratic Iowa caucuses, and with that momentum, he might have gone on to win the nomination over Hilary Clinton. Obama got 38 percent in Iowa, Edwards 30 percent and Clinton 29 percent. 

In the Rob Christensen/Jim Morrill story about Edwards' 2nd place finish, we quoted an ECU political science prof as saying "Edwards is in big trouble."

Little did we know.

On the Republican side four years ago, Mike Huckabee won Iowa with 34 percent, followed by Mitt Romney, with 25 percent.  The eventual GOP nominee, John McCain, got 13 percent.

On our Jan. 4, 2008 front page, we ran mugs of the top vote-getters across the top of 1A. McCain's showing was so feeble that he didn't get a picture. He was listed as an also-ran with Fred Thompson, who also got 13 percent. You know, Fred Thompson of  Law and Order fame.

This year, the focus will just be on the Republicans, and it is worth remembering that the Iowa caucuses can be predictive except when they're not. Jimmy Carter put them on the map and Ron Paul may take them off.

And at the end of next month, four years to the day after Edwards quit the presidential race, jury selection is scheduled to start in his trial in federal court in Greensboro.

Laura Sanders, a tax columnist for the Wall Street Journal, poses an interesting question today about the legal troubles of former Sen. John Edwards: "Could two obscure taxes paid by a wealthy heiress save a former politician from prison? Quite possibly, say tax- and election-law experts. The curious tale offers a lesson for ordinary taxpayers as well."

Edwards was charged in June with several federal campaign finance violations. Prosecutors say Edwards violated the law by seeking more than $900,000 in hush money to hide his affair and the resulting pregnancy from voters.

Rachel "Bunny" Mellon, a multi-millionaire philanthropist and Edwards backer, gave Edwards some $725,000 in 2008.

Mellon's lawyer told the Wall Street Journal that his client paid both gift and generation-skipping taxes on the payments.  And the taxes may have been quite the doozy. 

Attorney Howard Zaritsky of Rapidan, Va., told the Wall Street Journal that Mellon probably paid $799,000 in tax to make her $725,000 gift.

Edwards' lawyers are certain to argue that the taxes are proof that the money was a gift, not a campaign contribution.

John Edwards gives a big smile for the police camera.

News today of the resignation of the U.S. Attorney in Raleigh, George Holding, has received some national attention because of the connections to the John Edwards case.

One of the national sites goofed in a way we think would bring a few chuckles around here. (And, yes, we all make mistakes.)

The Huffington Post headline:

"Mike Easley Resigning:

John Edwards Investigation Prosecutor

Quitting After Indictment"

The HuffPost also included three photos of Easley, the former North Carolina governor, with its story.

The article itself was an AP version that accurately reported that George Holding is the federal prosecutor who is stepping aside.

Easley, of course, was a target of Holding.

Easley pleaded guilty to a felony in state court as part of plea deal last year that ended the federal probe of his behavior.

Be cautious of the heavy speculation now surrounding the John Edwards case in some corners of the media world.

All decisions are expected to be made next week.

Here's a recap of where things stand, based on the N&O's ongoing reporting:

* Months of behind-the-scenes debate among the prosecutors and the Edwards team have ended. And this includes the major components of any plea deal. That is to say, there really aren't plea talks between the sides under way at this point.

* The decision making is up to Edwards: Plead to a felony or face an indictment and trial. Of course, Edwards would always have the ability to strike a plea deal after an indictment. (See Ruffin Poole.) While the sides in the case have been debating and discussing it, at times fiercely, the Edwards team also has not had a full exchange of information gathered in the two-year probe. That would come after an indictment. Reviewing more of the government's case could strengthen Edwards' view that the case is without merit, or alter it.

Still, the best time to enter a plea is usually prior to an indictment. Especially one that is likely to be lengthy and larded with dirty laundry.

* All signs still point to no plea deal. Edwards' lead lawyer, Gregory Craig, says: "The government's theory is wrong on the facts and wrong on the law."

* The timing of a possible indictment is for the middle to end of next week. (Some reports had suggested it would come this week -- and if that sounds familiar, it is. There have been reports across the national media of an imminent indictment since at least February.)

* Lanny Breuer, head of the Justice Department's criminal division, has OK'd seeking an indictment. The case has been vetted from Raleigh to Washington, and has been under close review in Washington for months now.

The decision to proceed by the Obama administration's Justice Department lays to rest any lingering questions about partisanship in the Edwards probe. (The investigation was started under Republican holdover George E.B. Holding and, early on, there had been political jockeying over the case and whether Holding should be replaced.)

* The case does not involve money to various non-profits or LLCs, which are often mentioned in the background of reporting about the case.

* It is all about money that went to Edwards aide Andrew Young and Edwards' mistress, Rielle Hunter, directly from Rachel "Bunny" Mellon, a 100-year-old heiress and philanthropist from Virginia, and the late Fred Baron, a Texas lawyer. (In some cases, the money went to an intermediary -- such as an interior decorator, who got checks from Mellon in boxes of chocolates, according to Young.)

The amount of money involved that flowed this way is more than $1 million.

* The government would say that the purpose of the money was to hide Hunter from the voters, and was thus a campaign contribution subject to all the laws of campaign donations, including limits of how much can be given by a person to a candidate. The government would say that Edwards knew the money was to keep the affair secret and not hurt his chance of election.

* The Edwards legal team would say that the money was to hide the affair from Edwards' wife, Elizabeth, who died in December and had won widespread admiration for courage shown in her fight against cancer. The Edwards team would say that Edwards did not in any way view the money as campaign money or contributions.

-- J. Andrew Curliss and Joseph Neff, staff writers

There has been some intense negotiation going on in recent weeks between John Edwards' lawyers and Justice, but late last night ABC News broke the news from Washington that Justice had given the OK to the U.S. Attorney's office here to proceed with an indictment of the former senator and vice presidential nominee from Raleigh. That will likely happen next week, unless a plea deal can be reached.

A powerhouse Washington lawyer said in an interview Thursday that he is advocating with critical "decision makers" at the Justice Department and in Raleigh on behalf of John Edwards, the former senator and presidential candidate who is the subject of a federal criminal investigation.

Rumors started circulating over the weekend that Elizabeth Edwards had taken a turn for the worse, and that family members were on their way to her home outside Chapel Hill.  Our reporters were hearing this Sunday night, but no one would say anything publicly. 

Monday afternoon, the family issued a statement that treatment for her cancer had been halted.  A statement from Mrs. Edwards thanking her friends and well-wishers appeared on Facebook.  Stories began to pop up all over the web, including our own site.

Still, we didn't know much.  That's why we ran our story on the local front of today's paper, instead of 1A.  A story by the Associated Press, quoting an unidentified friend of Mrs. Edwards, said doctors had told her she "may have little time left."  It was impossible to tell from that whether that meant days, weeks or months.

By mid-afternoon today, it began to appear that it wouldn't be weeks, and might be days. And around 5 p.m., we learned that she had passed away.

As is the practice with well-known people such as Elizabeth Edwards, we had an obituary already prepared, the one that is on our web site now, written by staffers Rob Christensen and Mandy Locke. We put it online once we had confirmation.

In the mid-'90s, before her husband was elected to the U.S. Senate, before he was a vice presidential nominee, before he ran for president, before her battle with cancer made her an heroic figure, and before her husband's extramarital affair made him tabloid fodder, Elizabeth Edwards was known primarily by a circle of friends and professional colleagues in Raleigh as a great wife and mother and a skillful lawyer.  By the time of her passing, she was a national figure swept up in her husband's breaktaking rise and fall, and her death was being reported globally.

When a person becomes very, very famous, the first word of their passing is big news and is the subject of a one-sentence wire service bulletin to alert news organizations in the U.S. and worldwide. So it was that at 4:56 p.m., the bulletin went out from Washington AP:  "Family friend says Elizabeth Edwards has died."     

A four-year term expires today for the top federal prosecutor in the eastern part of North Carolina.

But George E.B. Holding, whose office is overseeing investigations that involve former Gov. Mike Easley and former Sen. John Edwards, is likely to remain on the job for a while longer.

How long isn't clear.

Elizabeth Edwards will appear on "The Nate Berkus Show" during the show's premiere week in September.

According to a press release for the show, the Chicago designer made famous by Oprah Winfrey will interview Edwards at her Red Window furniture store in Chapel Hill and will also visit her Chapel Hill home (which is for sale).