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Third-round Playoff Predictions

You've read about the match-ups. You know the teams. You know the situations and what's at stake. (and if you don't know those things, read this) But you're still wondering one thing: who will the SWakeSports blog pick as this week? Well here they are at last, but don't blame me if these come true (I am 9-for-9 these playoffs after all).

4-AA playoffs

Fuquay-Varina at Wake Forest-Rolesville

In this battle of the hyphenated schools, not enough people are giving Fuquay a chance. The Bengals (3-seed, 11-2) may lack depth. They may lack a passing game. But they do no lack heart, and they don't lack competitiveness. Two losses by six points combined should show that. And since the team is coming off arguably the most impressive win of the year, you'd have to be pretty dense to think Wake Forest will 'Rol' to victory. That being said, I think WFR has one of the best defenses this county has ever seen. And the Cougars (1-seed, 13-0) might be the best chance Wake County has had of having a team win the state title game since Garner's championship in the late 80's. I think this one is real low-scoring, with WFR eking out a win by the narrowest of margins. 

Final verdict: Wake Forest-Rolesville by 5 

4-A playoffs 

Middle Creek at Harnett Central 

Everyone expects this one to be close and for good reason. Brian Taylor and Garrett Leatham are bar-none the best two quarterbacks in the area. Both are amazing athletes who lead their teams. Both offenses are fun to watch, so this final score should be the exact opposite from the one above. In the end, Harnett Central's playmakers 1-2-3 are just a little better than Middle Creek's but Middle Creek (3-seed, 12-1) has the better 4-5-6 options. The defenses are just about equal. Central's strength is pass defense, and that'll be tested by the Mustangs. Middle Creek's special teams certainly has the edge (Matt Frongello > kicking the ball out of bounds on every kickoff). In the end, I'm going to pick Harnett Central (1-seed, 13-0) due to the fact they've held their own against passing teams all year long, but I'd be shocked if this game was decided by more than one possession.

Final verdict: Harnett Central by 6

Looking back at Friday's games: second-round edition


Two out of three ain't bad, as that's two Tri-Nine teams in the third round (or sweet 16) of the state high school playoffs. Middle Creek defeated Durham Hillside 24-19 and Fuquay-Varina crushed Southern Pines Pinecrest 41-7. Southern Durham clipped Athens Drive by the close shave of 24-21. Now here's looking back at the week that was.

Second-round playoff predictions

The second round of the playoffs are here, and we've got three teams in
it, and all three could win (even though one would certainly be an
upset). Let's take a look at the games involving the season's three
winningest Tri-Nine teams.

Looking back at Friday's games: first-round edition

I know we've kept you all on pins and needles waiting for this week's edition, and I apologize for the wait. As you may have known, half our of six advancing football teams are now out of the playoffs. (15) Cary lost 7-0 at (2) Hoggard, (14) Panther Creek lost 63-34 at (3) Jack Britt and (12) Holly Springs lost 24-0 at (5) New Hanover. The three home Tri-Nine teams all won their games.
The worst part is while I made predictions for these, I didn't publish a blog on it nor pick by how many points. But just so you know, I had my best week ever, getting all six playoff games correct.

All-Conference not announced yet, so let me hand some awards out

In the print edition of today's The Cary News and Southwest Wake News, I mistakenly said the All-Conference team for the Tri-Nine would be announced Monday.
As I found out later that night (and after deadline), the team was simply decided upon Monday and won't be announced until after the last conference team is ousted from the playoffs (so here's hoping we don't know that list for awhile).
Which brings me to today's column which looked back on the year at-large.

How I did: on the football season

At the end of the regular season, I correctly called 49 of 65 games (and that includes two Cary Christian playoff games) for a 75% accuracy rate. Say, that'd make me either an awesome quarterback or a decent kicker.
 
Anyway, at the beginning of the year, I predicted the conference top-to-bottom, and it didn't go as bad as you may think. A three-way tie for second skews this somewhat, but I was exactly right on three teams and only off by a spot on four. Holly Springs made me pay by finishing second when I had them 7th, and Middle Creek finished two spots higher than third for a conference championship.
 
I even noted that the conference would get six playoff teams, and correctly called five of the six. Here was my preseason with the # of spots off in parentheses.
 


1. Fuquay-Varina (+1)

2. Athens Drive (E)

3. Middle Creek (-2)

4. Panther Creek (+1)

5. Cary (+1)

6. Apex (+1)

7. Holly Springs (-5)

8. Lee County (E)

9. Green Hope (E)

Week 12 Tri-Nine football predictions

This is it. The last week of the regular season. Overall, the conference is twice as good as it was last year. It's deeper (no longer Fuquay, Apex and Snow White's dwarfs), it's got better players, and it's done better out-of-conference.

With most of the conference's teams knowing they're playoff-bound, the biggest game in the conference this week is Cary at Panther Creek.

 

 Cary (5-5, 3-4) at Panther Creek (4-6, 2-5)

Week 11 Tri-Nine football predictions

There's only one game you need to know this week:

Fuquay-Varina at Middle Creek.  
 
If the Mustangs hold serve at home, 
they're your 2009 Tri-Nine Conference champions. If Fuquay wins, a three-way tie is on the table.

A quick back look at Friday (10/26)

How I did: Winners called correctly: 2-of-4 (42-13 this year, 76%)


 
Margin of victory within 7-points: 1-of-4 (I had Apex by 20 — they won by 19)
 
I'm proud of: Realizing before all others that Athens Drive would give Fuquay one heck of a contest. I had the Apex score almost to a tee, which makes me feel better about...
 
I'm embarrassed about: Whiffing on my two upset picks. Lee County did not defeat Cary and Athens couldn't overcome miscues in the special teams to hold on against Fuquay. Sadly, my picking percentage has dropped to only about 3 out of every 4 correct.
 
Looking at the games:
Interesting to note: It all comes down to this. Wins by Fuquay and Middle Creek set up the biggest game of the conference year when the Bengals visit the Mustangs on Friday. If the Mustangs win, they'll clinch the conference championship as only Holly Springs could tie, and Middle Creek won the head-to-head. If the Bengals win, a three-way tie is on the table with HS, FV and MC all finishing with one loss in the conference. Just as we saw last year with the conference's third spot, numbers would be drawn out of a hat to determine seeding and all three schools would be awarded co-conference championships.
 
Player of the week: Every school in the conference has had a player either win POTW or runner-up except one. That is, until now.
 
Apex's Shawn Knox gashed Green Hope's defense for 214 yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns. He also caught three passes for 25 yards and a score.  
 
I know what you're thinking. "Yeah, but it was against winless Green Hope." Well, what makes Knox's outburst truly special is Apex — as a team — had not even ran for more than 150 yards in a game all season. In fact, they were averaging just 66 yards per contest entering the Green Hope game and 55 per game before a season-high 144 yards against Panther Creek the previous week. 
 
Runner-up: Malcolm Thaxton of Fuquay-Varina. Why you ask? Sure, Thaxton had just two carries for 10 yards, but he returned a kickoff 85 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter to tie the game at 6, then returned another one to the Athens Drive 16-yard line with under three minutes to play in the fourth. Two plays later, Fuquay broke open the tied game with a touchdown and two-point conversion. Who's to say the Bengals make it that far in that little time without a great return (especially with how little they throw the ball)? Give that man a game ball.
 

Stat of the week: Thanks to a number of sacks and despite being blessed with good running backs and slightly mobile quarterbacks, Panther Creek and Middle Creek combined for 15 yards on 52 carries (0.3 yards per carry!). You read right. PC got four yards on 23 ( 0.2 yards per carry) while MC got 11 on 29 carries (0.4 yards per carry). I don't think I've ever seen a game where two teams did so poorly in that department. Maybe that explains why a game most figured would be in the high 30's was a pedestrian 31-17 final.

Week 10: Tri-Nine Friday Football Predictions

Can you believe there's only three weeks left in the year? Three weeks and that includes this Friday? Although my weekly predictions have been a lot of fun, and I've been extremely accurate (78%), I'm not Nostradamus by any means. As Athens proved last week, even if you're predicted to lose by 6, you can still win by 40.


Game of the week 

Athens Drive (6-2, 4-1) at Fuquay-Varina (7-1, 4-1) 

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