Monday debate: is it already too late

  In terms of the playoffs for 2011-2012, that dream is gone, the music has stopped playing; and it's time to light candles in memoriam.  In terms of the opportunity presented now for the organization, it's a chance of an organizational lifetime.

   The Hurricanes have the best young talent in the system and organization than they've ever possessed.  With respect to forwards, Dalpe and Rask are two high caliber center/forwards. Boychuk and Bowman are also talented, if still on the bubble.  Nash is a former first round draft choice who continues to improve.  Hofmman is a very talented, highly skilled, fast forward who is still developing.  Terry and Samson have potential, but have further to go.

  Defensively, Faulk, Murphy, and McBain are very high caliber prospects.  I would say that Faulk and McBain are now high caliber, young NHL defensemen.  Sanguinetti has been plagued by injuries, and he is behind schedule for development; but he is still a good prospect.  Alt, Biega, Levy, and Lowe are also fine defensive prospects.

   The 2012 NHL Entry Draft is as deep, I believe, as the 2003 draft.  Those chances do not come along easily or painlessly during the life span of an NHL organization.  There are three or four forward prospects who project out as having elite abilities, Yakupov, Girgorenko, Galchenyuk, and Forsberg.  Hidden among the later picks are some prospects who may well develop into first line forwards.  At this point in the season the Hurricanes would pick third and would be an elite talent. 

   My hope is that Jim Rutherford will hold tight to his draft choices, and indeed will add draft picks.  The Hurricanes are two forwards shy of a very competitive team.  If the Hurricanes add one more elite defenseman with experience, along with the two forwards, the Hurricanes can compete for years.

   The money is there for an elite forward.  With the money saved from trading the disaster that was Kaberle ($4.5 million) and trading LaRose (with a price tag in 2012 of $1.9 million), the  Hurricanes have an additional $6.4 million in 2012 without even adding to the internal salary cap.  The problem in trying to fix the lack of elite forwards by signing UFAs is that the cost is high;  and the pool of available players is sparce.  Parise is the best UFA forward available, unless one counts the skill level of Semin and discounts his diva attitudes.

   If the Hurricanes draft in the top three, and for purposes of discussion assume that the pick is Girgorenko, the Hurricanes have Dalpe, Rask, and Girgorenko as forwards who are NHL ready.  Boychuk is also NHL ready.  The addition of a Parise would help enormously but given the status of the young forwards available, may not be essential.

    What is clear to me is that Peter Karmanos, Jr. has to spend more money on salary.  It is also clear that the organization has to gets its best and brightest young stars, Dalpe, Rask, Boychuk, Faulk, and Murphy onto the ice more efficiently and quicker.  The good news is that Muller, MacLean, Daniels, Kinnear, Brind'Amour, Wesley, and Lewis have the expertise and experience to hone those players' skills to being NHL ready. 

    Next season, assuming that one of the top four forwards are selected, and assuming we at least see Dalpe, Rask, and Murphy on the Canes roster, along with Faulk and McBain, the Hurricanes will be significantly more talented than the team is at present.  It's been a frustrating year for everybody, players, coaches, owners, and fans; but the reward at th end is the Hope Diamond.

Assuming that 92 points will qualify for 8th place in the Eastern Conference, the Canes need to win the equivalent of 35 games. That.s 67% of the points remaining. The Canes record going forward would be somewhere between these extremes

35-16-0 and 27-0-16

... but that does NOT mean the season is a throw away.  I think too many fans are ready to give up on Bowman, Boychuk, Dalpe, and company.  They have had several "chances" to play at the NHL level, but never in the role they have played for their entire careers.  I'd suggest bringing them up, either as a group (and maybe play 3 of them as a line) or individually, but give them at least 5 solid games of playing time on the 1st or 2nd scoring lines.  Give them a real chance to show what they can do and look at them in that setting long enough to make a valid evaluation of what talent we really have.  There is no reason to have any "borderline" NHL ready players in the system that do not get a solid evaluation/opportunity with the big club at the end of this season.  If room can be made for them by trading some upcoming UFA's for assets, then all the better. 

I think it's to late for us to make the playoffs this year unless we start winning Tues. night and go on a run the way the Devils did last year, which is probably impossible given the lack of talent here. Everyone is to blame for the complete collapse of this team which had high expectations this season. I agree with those who say PK should open his eyes to this and realize if he just spent 3-5 mil. more, we could make the playoffs.

Now the question is do we keep the team as is and trade those whose contracts are up this year at the trade deadline for picks and prospects or tank the year for the #1 pick. It has been rumored  the Canes were looking at Bobby Ryan and the Red Wings might be interested in Ruutu. Currently we are 28th which will give us a great draft pick this year. This year's draft is loaded with forwards. So whoever we pick should make the team and contibute right away.

So if JR is going after a top 6 forward then PK needs to be involved with this and open his wallet and spend the money needed for this. And also JR needs to look at the roster and get with Muller and decide who needs to stay or go.

With very, very little doubt, this team will not make the playoffs.  Rather than management fooling themselves, they need to take a look at this team along side of Muller and make changes for next season and beyond.  If we are going to be a budget team, so be it.  I'm not about to call us cheap.  That is just the financial consideration that lends itself to having hockey in North Carolina.  When the team isn't making money and the economy is such that the investors are hurting financially as well, then there isn't incentive there to spend into oblivion.  Not unless the investors have hugely deep pockets and the team is truly and "expensive hobby" of theirs.  The Kaberle signing alone shows that we are willing to spend money (obviously this didn't work out, but we did throw $4.25 at the chance it would).  Fortunately we jettisoned the salary and it will leave us open to taking a chance at it again next off season, hopefully with much better results.

I may be one of the few that didn't mind the Stewart and Pontakarovsky signings as well.  Anyone looking that the numbers Stewart produced last year and the small salary we signed him at would think it was a bargain.  He obviously isn't producing to the same level as last year,  but I applauded that signing as the time.  Pont. might have been a bigger reach with what we paid him, but he has shown to bring some physicality and is a useful player.  The problem is, neither of those signing ended up addressing our real issue, putting pucks in the net.

Like others have said, figure out the guys who will fit into Muller's system and keep/resign them.  Try to get what you can for everyone else.  I know very little about what the upcoming draft looks like, but we should be in a position to draft very high.  Spend some serious time evaluating those prospects and hope for Skinner and not J. Johnson.  I think it is time to write Boychuk and Bowman off.  These experiments have gone on long enough.  Maybe we can trade them and pull off another "Tlusty for Paradis" type transaction.  Hopefully we will have Murphy to look forward to next season so we can stop this perennial search for a powerplay QB.

Other than that, implement Muller's system so next season we will be ready to go out of the gate with whatever pieces we have assembled.

Player selection, (Kaberle the worst), and the lack of any AHL'ers showing much leaves little hope for the year.  The hype on Boychuk/Bowan/ et.al. exceeds their contribution. 

Trades could help - or hurt.  Too many player moves over the past couople of years have been neutral to negative.   

This team is vastly different from the one that took the Stanley Cup.  The D' is less solid and forward ranks lack playmakers, snipers, and solid 2-way play.   

As JR said, this is a development year -- or was that last year?  Better to stay near the bottom, pick up an additional high draft pick if possible, and spend some $ in 2012/13.   Let's hope PK learns a tough lesson this year.  You get what you pay for -- but buy wisely.

It's too late.  Rutherford says what he says because he thinks people won't buy tickets if he says the year is over.  

I agree that player development with the Hurricanes is poor.  I think it's too simple to say Maurice wouldn't play the young guys.  I've heard for a long time that Boychuck is poor defensively.  If he isn't putting the puck in the net why should he play?  I suppose you could give him an extended chance in the top 6 to see, but if you are serious about winning games that's a big gamble.  I'm pretty sure Boychuck, and others, will get thier chance again later this season when forwards are traded.  

I am one of the rare ones who believed Mo was not the problem that ails this team.
If you take away Staal, Skinner and Ward we have second hand players. Ownership is not willing to spend the money to win the Stanley Cup.  They are willing to spend money to hopefully make the playoffs.  Mo got the most of out average players and played a style that made up for the lack of talent. 

The last 2 years this team has been at or near the bottom in pp% and shots against.  They let Ray Whitney walk two years and then let Cole and Corvo go last year.  Staal is a premier player in the league, but without a quality winger to compliment him, to create space for him, he's not going to be great.

Result: At or near the bottom in pp% and shots against again this year.  Even worse than this season is the prospect of losing our top three players to a team who is willing to surround it's best players with quality forwards when they become UFA's.  If you were Staal or Ward, would you want to stay with a team that is not committed to winning?  If ownership doesn't change it's philosophy, we may find out.

Mo wasn't the problem.  PK and JR are the root of this teams problems and bringing in another coach won't change the players we have.