If you're a fan of gallows humor then you would have loved this morning's Urban Land Institute Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010 forum.
The forum, held at The Renaissance Hotel in North Hills, provided local real estate professionals with ULI's outlook on what's going to happen next year.
To understand how bad 2009 has been all you had to do was listen to the jokes, which made light of ULI Triangle's decision to hold the forum in a first-floor ballroom and not have an open bar afterward where brokers and developers could drink away their sorrows.
As for what ULI expects in 2010, you're not going to like it unless you're sitting on a pile of cash.
"Emerging Trends surveys indicate that 2010 will be the worst time for investors to sell properties in the report's 30-year history, but will offer a much-improving environment to buy (with cash)."
The report's executive summary goes on to say that, "a lackluster economic recovery characterized by problematic job growth will hamper the pace of any real estate market resurgence, which probably cannot gain much traction until late 2011 or 2012. In the meantime, rents and occupancies will continue to fall well into 2010, savaging the prospects of weakened owners struggling with financing issues."
Bring on 2013!
The ULI Emerging Trends report is the result of 900 interviews with real estate professionals. During his presentation of the report this morning, Stephen Blank, ULI senior resident fellow of finance, included some choice quotes from those surveys.
Here's a sampling:
"Getting through 2010 will be the test for who can survive."
"Developer ... the terminology doesn't apply in this market."
"Why build anything when you can buy more cheaply."


Business reporter David Bracken came to the N&O in 2004. He covers commercial and residential real estate. Contact David at 919-829-4548 or
