Two-thirds of U.S. companies don't expect their employment to return to pre-recession levels until 2011 or later.
That grim prediction was one slice of data from a new quarterly survey of 1,431 chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine. It's the latest report that reflects what many economists expect in the new year: that the slow recovery won't bring much relief for job seekers.
The survey showed that the executives expect business conditions to improve in 2010, but that hiring will be flat or down. And among firms that reduced hours worked, eliminated 401(k) matches or cut health benefits, two-thirds do not expect to restore those benefits in 2010.
“The economy has begun to show signs of life, but improvement in corporate performance appears to be coming on the backs of the employees,” said Kate O’Sullivan, senior editor at CFO Magazine, in a prepared statement.
“The bottom line is the CFOs are telling us that double-digit unemployment will continue through 2010," she added. "This is troubling, as CFOs predicted unemployment above 10 percent long before others gave the notion any credibility.”
Nearly half of the CFOs say that cuts to their workforces, marketing budgets and more have permanently damaged their companies' long-term prospects. Since CFOs oversee corporate finances and financial decisions, their opinions tend to reflect the outlook of the broader business community.
One bright spot is that two-thirds of CFOs say they will add workers in 2010 if demand for their products increases sufficiently. And earnings are expected to rise more than 7 percent in the U.S.
“While improved from last quarter, corporate spending and profits are all below long-term averages,” said John Graham, professor of finance at Duke and director of the survey. “Nonetheless, for the first time since 2008, we expect to see positive growth in these crucial areas, suggesting that the corporate sector has bottomed out.”
The survey collected responses from 1,431 CFOs from the U.S., Europe and Asia through Dec. 11. The survey has been conducted for 55 consecutive quarters.
Read the full results here.
Assistant Business Editor Alan M. Wolf joined the N&O in 1999 covering the business of health care. He became an editor in 2001, and helps oversee the paper's daily business coverage and Sunday Work&Money section. He lives in Clayton with his wife and two children. Reach him at 919-829-4572 or 
Comments
Bring our jobs back!
Wed, 12/16/2009 - 14:07 — Kim_V_123We must start bringing our manufacturing jobs back home! Service industry jobs cannot sustain our economy and the more our economy depends on them the worse off we will be. Companies must be willing to compromise huge profits and executive compensation for good paying jobs at home. Government must be willing to look at ways to incent businesses to keep jobs here.
Bleak employment outlook
Wed, 12/16/2009 - 11:13 — henryeWe are in this mess today because of Global Free Trade. It looks like we are at a point of no return. They could have turned things around two years ago. But it is looking doubtful now.They have been reporting the Trade Deficits every Quarter for the last nine years. and strangely no one seemed to notice. maybe its too simple for people to understand. whatever the reason it is impossible to spend more than you receive in income. talk about trickle down economics, The amount of imported goods have been staggering, compared to the amount of goods that we have been selling. this is not magic. this is a fact of life. the Field is just to unlevel to sustain our own interest. at some point in time every one is going to understand this.
Bleak employment outlook
Wed, 12/16/2009 - 11:13 — henryeWe are in this mess today because of Global Free Trade. It looks like we are at a point of no return. They could have turned things around two years ago. But it is looking doubtful now.They have been reporting the Trade Deficits every Quarter for the last nine years. and strangely no one seemed to notice. maybe its too simple for people to understand. whatever the reason it is impossible to spend more than you receive in income. talk about trickle down economics, The amount of imported goods have been staggering, compared to the amount of goods that we have been selling. this is not magic. this is a fact of life. the Field is just to unlevel to sustain our own interest. at some point in time every one is going to understand this.
Bleak employment outlook
Wed, 12/16/2009 - 11:13 — henryeWe are in this mess today because of Global Free Trade. It looks like we are at a point of no return. They could have turned things around two years ago. But it is looking doubtful now.They have been reporting the Trade Deficits every Quarter for the last nine years. and strangely no one seemed to notice. maybe its too simple for people to understand. whatever the reason it is impossible to spend more than you receive in income. talk about trickle down economics, The amount of imported goods have been staggering, compared to the amount of goods that we have been selling. this is not magic. this is a fact of life. the Field is just to unlevel to sustain our own interest. at some point in time every one is going to understand this.
Bleak employment outlook
Wed, 12/16/2009 - 11:13 — henryeWe are in this mess today because of Global Free Trade. It looks like we are at a point of no return. They could have turned things around two years ago. But it is looking doubtful now.They have been reporting the Trade Deficits every Quarter for the last nine years. and strangely no one seemed to notice. maybe its too simple for people to understand. whatever the reason it is impossible to spend more than you receive in income. talk about trickle down economics, The amount of imported goods have been staggering, compared to the amount of goods that we have been selling. this is not magic. this is a fact of life. the Field is just to unlevel to sustain our own interest. at some point in time every one is going to understand this.
Impossible! Hope and change
Wed, 12/16/2009 - 10:49 — PhantomLordImpossible! Hope and change is upon us and the Messiah and Saviour, the most merciful Barack Obama will return us to full employment by months end. His Jobs Summit results will see to that.
These CFO's are nothing more than racist Obama haters trying to drag down and hurt President Obama. They are purposefully firing people and laying people off to damage Obama.
Hey wait a minute
Wed, 12/16/2009 - 08:22 — stevemichaelsGeez, stimulus one - didn't work, now they are gearing up stimulus two with more pork and useless spending - a trillion dollars here a trillion there (you know the rest of the song) I am a business owner who employs 12 employees - maybe they should lessen my burdens - payroll taxes, workmens comp and unemployment - then I can think about hiring again - but the morons in Raleigh and DC fail to know what its like to meet a payroll with these large tax burdens - If you think I am not telling the truth then please ask a small businessman on what they would like to see done.