The first half of the ACC season ended Wednesday night for N.C. State with a 59-47 loss at Virginia and a 2-6 conference record.
Normally, a 12-point road loss to the first-place team in the ACC is not demoralizing, except State led Virginia at the half (again), only to get out-worked and out-coached in the final 20 minutes.
No one expected the Wolfpack to make the NCAA Tournament this season but after a road win against Florida State and home win over Duke, State at least put itself in the mix for the NIT, which would have been stepping a stone for the program after missing the postseason the past two years.
With a three-game ACC losing streak, the NIT is rapidly slipping out of reach. At 14-9, State needs to win three more ACC games and one ACC Tournament game to finish 18-15.
Given the remaining schedule, which is all ACC games, the Pack's best shot at wins are at home against Virginia Tech (Feb. 10), at home against Wake Forest (Feb. 20), at Miami (Feb. 27) and at home against Boston College (March 7).
A 2-6 repeat, and a flameout in Greensboro equals 16-16 and another March at home alone.
N.C. State has shown flashes of being a competent team but has only put it all together for 40 minutes once (vs. Duke) all season.
That has to be more frustrating for Sidney Lowe (and the fan base) than if State had been as bad as everyone predicted in October (worst in the ACC).
The biggest problem is consistent contributions from someone other than Tracy Smith. Point guard Javier Gonzalez has worked his way into Lowe's doghouse (again) and forward Dennis Horner, either by his injured knee or own talent limitations, has not been the same since ACC play began.
That means either freshman forward Richard Howell, who had a team-best 14 points last night, or guard Julius Mays, who was scoreless against UVa, has to fill the void left by the two regular starters.
That doesn't absolve the other two starters, Farnold Degand and Scott Wood, who seem to have fallen off the map after a strong start to January, but it means someone has to help Smith.
Otherwise, when the 2010-11 season starts, Lowe will have no choice but to save his job with his prized recruiting class.
Comments
It is
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:15 — mad_maxwhat it is.
Got 'em right where we want them.
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 15:35 — JPDOhioIn reality, this is about where any reasonable person would expect the Pack to be. At the beginning of the year, you could figure that Tracy would be solid and that Javi, Dennis, and Farnold could go either way. The freshmen and sophomores essentially were promising, but unknown.
In many respects, this team is just like recent versions of the Pack. That is, periods of excellent play, with a 5-10 minute dead period somewhere in the middle of either half. The main difference-youth now vs. experience before. The current team's youth is the reason for hope.
After this year, we lose Farnold and Dennis. Howell is better than Dennis now, so next year is an upgrade. The key will be Howell having an effective backup (Painter or Cothron, assuming he signs), which is somewhat uncertain at this time. Farnold has had his moments this year (and hopefully will have a few more before the year is out), but the addition of Harrow and Brown should also be an upgrade.
Scott Wood will be fine. A year of physical maturity and weight training will do wonders. Sid will have a playbook full of plays designed specifically to get Scott open, as teams will continue to focus on stopping him. In fact, why wait until next year? He should be working on that now
Javi will be in the mix and could excel, if he can find a way to funnel his emotions positively. His passion is his greatest strength and worst enemy, and is the reason I love the kid and hope he succeeds before his career at State is over. Mays, Williams and Vandenberg will be relied on to provide solid minutes when they get the opportunity, which could be often.
All that said, this season is not over yet. 4 more wins this year is doable and should get them in the NIT, which will be important for the team's continued growth. This team has not quit yet, but does have a tendency to get down after they miss a few shots. Then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is up to Sid to do what he needs to do to break the cycle, because State's problems are more mental than physical at this point.
Better than expected
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 16:23 — Heels20In all honesty, this team is better than I expected them to be. With road wins at Marquette and FSU, and a convincing home win against Dook, there have been a few surprises.
Howell has developed quickly, and as you said, the loss of Horner after this season will be addition by subtraction.
Javi has surprised me as well. He has emerged as a decent ball handler who can put points on the board. While, that doesn't sound special, you've got to remember how Farnold Degand, Marques Johnson, and freshman/sophomore versions of Javi made Tony Bethel look like a superstar. Having a senior leader at point guard next year will be essential in making a smooth transition for Harrow.
The only two players who have fallen short of my expectations are CJ Williams and Johnny Thomas. Thomas doesn't play much, so that may have to do with his knee injury that may never go away, but CJ Williams has seen a big cut in his minutes and doesn't do a whole lot when on the floor. He's not necessarily bad, but he's just not the contributor I thought he would turn into.
I think 3-4 more regular season wins can be expected. I also think they may pull off an upset in the ACC tournament. Only time will tell...
One thing about this year.
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:12 — JPDOhioThere are very few games that you can pick the winner with absolute certainty. I can't think of one game that you can honestly say that the underdog had no chance to win.
Terrible
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 13:25 — willncsu3 more wins is about right.
To put it plainly
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 16:07 — SurferNice way of saying, "just wait til next year", JPG. But you shouldn't give up on this team yet. I can see at least 3 more wins and who knows how many more "duke game" wins they can steal/muster?