What does last season have to do with this season?
Not much, according to Vegas. The opening lines are out for the first week of the college football season and Vegas has three rematches from 2008 going the other way.
N.C. State, which opened the '08 season with a 34-0 loss to South Carolina, is a 3.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks. That's a fairly standard home-team advantage for the Wolfpack.
Two lines that seem a little off are Wake Forest by one over Baylor and Maryland catching 21 points at Cal.
Wake won 41-13 at Baylor last season and Maryland beat Cal, 35-27 in College Park.
There's no disputing Vegas knows more about these teams than anyone else but given the returning personnel at Wake and Maryland, those lines seem askew.
Using Vegas logic, they're begging you to take Wake, which means they think Wake is going to lose.
Ditto for Maryland by installing them as such a large underdog, they know the general public will take the points, and are in essence predicting a Cal rout.
Note: The VT-Alabama line is already off the board with the injury to Darren Evans. And most major casinos don't put games between Division I-A and I-AA teams on the board, hence the absence of UNC-The Citadel and others.
Week 1 lines
South Carolina @ N.C. State (-3.5)
Baylor @ Wake Forest (-1)
Alabama (-4.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Maryland @ Cal (-21)
Middle Tennessee @ Clemson (-20)
Miami @ FSU (-5)
Comments
willncsu is ...
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 18:39 — gvillegatrCORRECT!!
Vegas doesn't have to trick anyone. but, JPG, Vegas does want you (and everyone else) to believe what you wrote.
Wow!
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:53 — willncsuWe agree on something! Just got back from Vegas. I love its trashiness.
Not how lines work...
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 13:35 — willncsuThe lines are placed so that 50% bet one way and 50% bet the other. Think about it, why would vegas want people to bet overwhelmingly one way, increasing their risk, when they can just clean up on fees and have the bets on each side even out.
Vegas
Thu, 08/13/2009 - 13:54 — jpg (author)Certainly intends to minimize risk but lines are set to induce action.
They also have a tendency to place lines at "too good to be true" prices to attract marks.
Wake minus-1? That's the definition of them begging you to take Wake because they think Baylor will win.
It should also be noted, the week Vegas is most out-of-whack is Week 1.
— JPG
Vegas
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 00:08 — leroy_corsoJPG is exactly right.
And the lines will adjust as bets are placed.
you are obviously
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 08:08 — gvillegatrnot a gambler. the number is set to get equal action on both sides.
the lines moves ONLY when more bets are made to one side or of course when a meaningful injury occurs prior to the game.
lines move
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 11:20 — jpg (author)all the time Gatr, for a variety of reasons. And they're not looking for "equal" money because then they only make the vig.
They try to sway the action, whether you want to recognize that or not.
— JPG