Let’s say the following ACC players enter and stay in this summer's NBA Draft:
• Reggie Jackson (Boston College)
• Kyrie Irving (Duke)
• Chris Singleton (Florida State)
• Iman Shumpert (Georgia Tech)
• Jordan Williams (Maryland)
• C.J. Leslie (N.C. State)
• Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Harrison Barnes (North Carolina)
Given that sort of attrition, here’s my guess on how the 2011-12 ACC race will go (with each team's 2010-11 records in parentheses).
1. Duke (13-3, 32-5): Without Irving, the starters could be Seth Curry, Miles Plumlee, Mason Plumlee, shooting guard recruit Austin Rivers and Ryan Kelly.
That group should still be good enough for a preseason top-10 spot, and there would be sufficient bench help with Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton and recruits Marshall Plumlee, Quinn Cook and Mike Gbinije.
2. Miami (6-10, 21-15): The only senior on the roster is Adrian Thomas, and you have to assume all possible emphasis will be put on improving center Reggie Johnson’s conditioning and mobility.
Malcolm Grant, Durand Scott and Rion Brown should make for a formidable perimeter.
Julian Gamble, Garrius Adams and DeQuan Jones will do the little things. Transfers Kenny Kadji and Trey McKinney-Jones also join the mix.
3. Florida State (11-5, 23-11): Without Singleton, the defense would be weaker, and an improved offense would be a must in order for the Seminoles to go 11-5 in the league again.
There still will be plenty of parts, though, with Deividas Dulkys, Michael Snaer, Bernard James, Ian Miller, Okaro White, Terrance Shannon, Xavier Gibson and Jon Kreft.
4. North Carolina (14-2, 29-8): The frontcourt would be an ongoing migraine without Zeller, Henson and Barnes.
Freshman James McAdoo could start and probably would be joined by four perimeter players — Kendall Marshall, Dexter Strickland, Reggie Bullock and freshman P.J. Hairston or Leslie McDonald. Justin Watts would probably have to average 20 minutes, maybe more.
Roy Williams would go into a late-spring warp recruiting mode, but just snagging an NCAA bid would become a reasonable goal.
5. Virginia Tech (9-7, 22-12): Cracking the NCAA barrier could still be a problem even if Duke, Maryland and UNC lose their top NBA prospects.
Seth Greenberg can build around Dorenzo Hudson, J.T. Thompson and Erick Green, and forwards Dorian Finney-Smith and C.J. Barksdale anchor an impressive recruiting haul.
6. Clemson (9-7, 22-12): Tigers coach Brad Brownell had an impressive first year.
But even with Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant, the Tigers barely averaged 66 points in ACC games.
Next season's likely starters will be Andre Young, Milton Jennings, Devin Booker, Tanner Smith and maybe freshman forward Bernard Sullivan.
7. Virginia (7-9,16-15): Forward Mike Scott may come back as a medical redshirt, but Tony Bennett’s third team will be small again, and it’s probably too late for center Assane Sene to add much bulk.
Sammy Zeglinski, K.T. Harrell, Joe Harris, signee Malcolm Brogdon and Jontel Evans will provide some quickness. Recruit Paul Jesperson is listed as tall as 6-7, but he isn’t like to throw much weight around inside at 180 pounds.
Redshirt freshman forward James Johnson is an X-factor.
8. N.C. State (5-11, 15-16): No matter who winds up as coach, the roster should still include C.J. Williams, Scott Wood, Ryan Harrow, Richard Howell, Lorenzo Brown, Jordan Vandenberg and DeShawn Painter at its leanest.
The upside would be decent without Leslie, but Brown would need to become more consistent on offense.
9. Georgia Tech (5-11, 13-18): Working on the assumption that new coach Brian Gregory will get the usual bump from beginner’s luck, the Yellow Jackets will move up at least a spot or two even without Shumpert.
10. Maryland (7-9, 19-14): Losing Jordan Williams in the middle would leave Gary Williams with almost no hope to win seven games again. A 5-11 finish would be more likely.
11. Wake Forest (1-15, 8-24): There should be some improvement, but more than four ACC wins is a long shot.
12. Boston College (9-7, 21-13): Without Reggie Jackson, the Eagles would be completely lost for an offensive option.