With the outcome of an NCAA investigation still months away, North Carolina football coach Butch Davis, his staff and players are basically in the same situation as a year ago.
Barring an unusually quick resolution of the case, the Tar Heels will have to separate off-field from on-field issues as they go through preseason camp and the schedule.
Considering a long list of player suspensions, 2010 went reasonably well — 4-4 in the ACC, 8-5 overall and a bowl win over Tennessee.
With Louisiana State off the 2011 slate, Davis’ team should go 4-0 outside the conference. Three non-league games — James Madison (Sept. 3), Rutgers (Sept. 10) and Louisville (Oct. 8) _ will be in Chapel Hill. The only road non-leaguer will be at ECU (Oct. 1), which the Heels have easily defeated the past two seasons in Kenan Stadium.
The conference road schedule will be difficult — Georgia Tech (Sept. 24), Clemson (Oct. 22), N.C. State (Nov. 5) and Virginia Tech (Nov. 17).
But in Kenan, the Heels will be favored against all four league foes — Virginia (Sept. 17), Miami (Oct. 15), Wake Forest (Oct. 29) and Duke (Nov. 26).
As always, there’ll be surprise outcomes pro and con for the team, but an 8-4 overall, 4-4 ACC finish, or better, should be for the taking.
With a 28-23 record (15-17 ACC without a win over State) through four seasons and given the off-field turmoil, Davis could pad his firewall substantially by winning the Coastal Division title and taking the Heels to their first championship game appearance.
With both Tech games on the road, claiming the Coastal will be a long shot, particularly behind a new quarterback, Bryn Renner, and an uncertain running back situation.
But in the midst of an ongoing run of distractions last season, Davis and his staff managed to keep the players focused on the games.
That part of the preparation equation should be easier with the 2011 team.
Columnist
Comments
"Davis could pad his
Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:55 — bppack"Davis could pad his firewall substantially by winning the Coastal Division title and taking the Heels to their first championship game appearance."
so in other words, winning is more imprtant than running a clean program. at least Tudor statedd the obvious. and not one unc-ch fan came on here to dispute it. that's a sad state of affairs over there, one condoned by the chancellor and the Board of Governors. where is Claude Sitton when you REALLY need him?
Night and Day
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 17:50 — Heels20The situation coming into this season is incredibly different than the situation going into last season. Michael McAdoo, Marvin Austin, Robert Quinn, Kendric Burney, Charles Brown, Deunta Williams and Da'Norris Searcy were all at the top of the depth chart throughout the spring. NONE of them played in the first game of the season. We've had a season to break in players who are younger or less experienced. They also got a spring practice under their belts. As far as preparation goes, there are little to no parallels to the situation the team was in last July/August.
The 8-4 prediction doesn't seem to be a bad one. I don't know if we'll be favored over Miami when they come to Chapel Hill. For whatever, reason, most national writers seem to give the U a ton of love. I think Duke will be better, at least offensively, than most anticipate. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has a lot to figure out, and I think we match up very well against them (great D line, very athletic LBs).
While there are several question marks heading into this season, the team is much farther ahead from a preparation standpoint than they were going into last season.
da u
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 09:24 — SurferAgree, don't know if we will still be favored when Miami comes to town, but correct me if I am wrong, I don't think that they have ever won in Chapel Hill. Of course we all know that past performance has no bearing on future outcomes, unless you are TOB, of course.
You are correct
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 10:29 — Heels20Miami has never won in Chapel Hill, and actually has a losing record against UNC since entering the conference.
If Renner works out, then I really don't see why so many national writers give love to Miami. They still haven't figured out their QB situation. Their O-line is great, but they just lost one of their top runningbacks to UCF. Their receiving corps doesn't match that of Carolina. They have a solid, but not outstanding D line. Linebackers are very good, but the secondary, just like UNC's has question marks. They also lost Matt Bosher, which is pretty much the equivalent to when State lost John Deraney; he covered all kicking duties. They also have some very tough road games. Doesn't make much sense to me why they are over-hyped every single year.
Miami is stacked at RB
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 14:18 — gvillegatrThats why he transferred to UCF.
Stacked
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 14:50 — Heels20They're stacked depth-wise, but there's not a lot of proven talent. Storm had a shot at being their top back.
Let me rephrase
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 22:46 — gvillegatrThey have as much talent at RB than any other team in the conference. Also, there was some discrepancy as to him being suspended for the 1st game against Md.
Too soon
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 23:07 — Heels20I think it's way too soon to say that. Most every school in the ACC is returning the majority of its starting offensive line, and Montel Harris is arguably the best RB in the conference. FSU has two proven backs, also, and we know Georgia Tech is always going to bring something. Miami's backs are way too much about potential and high school ratings. Ryan Houston, who I don't even consider to be an outstanding back, is far more proven than any of the Hurricane RBs.
Also, as much as I hate to say it, I like Mustafa Greene a lot at RB. If Glennon is worth anything, it could really open things up for the running game and Greene could be a big threat.
Miami has one of the best o-lines in the country
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:05 — gvillegatrTop to bottom, the U has as much talent at RB as anyone in the ACC. Whether it translates to the field, top to bottom, we'll have to wait and see. But I'd take my chances with Lamar Miller breaking the big one and Mike James bruising you.
Just saying
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:35 — Heels20Still way too soon to jump to that conclusion about a backfield of totally unproven running backs. Their offensive line is definitely among the best in the conference, but with some of the other great backs in this conference, it's way too soon to label their backfield as the most talented in the ACC. Especially when there are such major question marks surrounding the QB position.
I hear ya
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:06 — gvillegatrBut Lamar Miller avged 6 yds a carry on 110+ carry's and six teeders last year. His QB situation last year was worse than it will be this year and the o-line was younger. Mike James didn't play that bad last season either. The U is gonna pound the ball this season. You can book that. Jacory has been a disappointment to say the least and the other fella was just so-so.
Its good to be able to talk about another team besides UNC and ncsu at a place named after a conference made up of twelve teams.
That's a fair argument
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:14 — Heels20Not gonna knock on Miami's running game because it'd be even more of a premature conclusion to say their backs are no good. It's just going to be tough to grind it out if there is uncertainty at the QB position and a new offensive coordinator in town. At the same time, there's uncertainty at the QB position for almost every ACC school, so that could help the growing pains for the U.
Definitely makes sense to discuss other teams around the conference because I really don't think we should count on seeing any team from NC playing in the ACC championship game.
greene and glennon
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 09:59 — JPDOhioThe year both of these guys have will pretty much depend on how State's O-Line develops. There is talent on the line, but it still is somewhat lacking in experience. If TOB can develop these guys like he did with his lines at BC, Glennon and Greene could have great years.
O Line
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:41 — Heels20State has an opportunity at a 10+ win year if they can get it done in the trenches. Obviously, Glennon will also have to work out, but with a manageable schedule they will have a shot at doing big things this year if they can block well and stop the run of opposing teams.
10+ wins? Hell...I,
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:09 — mad_max10+ wins? Hell...I, myself, will coordinate the parade in downtown Raleigh if that happens!
While State does have an easy OOC schedule this year, I would have to be in a very optimistic mood to predict 10 wins (I know that's not your actual prediction). Some people have been quick to talk about a 6-0 start, but I think that is nonsense. I think a reasonable prediction for the first 7 games is 5-2...not bad really, and Pack fans should be content with that. However, the final five games on the schedule look brutal. I can see us playing very well and still EASILY losing 3 of the last 5; @FSU, UNC, @BC, Clem, Mary. Most agree we probably lose at FSU. TOB has been back to Chesnut Hill twice since taking the job here...neither one of those visits went very well. Clemson and Maryland have completely owned State in football for quite some time...could be wrong but I think TOB is winless against them (while at State).
Still very early, and I'm not making an official prediction yet, but 7-5 is unfortunately a very real possibility IMHO. I guess the good news is that the ante has definitely been upped...It's been a while since I've used "unfortunately" and "7-5" in the same sentence while predicting State's season lol!
hey max
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 20:54 — JPDOhioI'll come down for that parade! 10 wins is obviously a huge stretch and even I wouldn't predict that, but why not aim high. If I am TOB, I'm preaching that as a possibility. You gotta believe before you can do.
Really, I think TOB has high expectations for his O-Line this year. Although I have no inside info to base this on, I believe one of the reasons he was willing to cut Russell loose is that he thinks his line will be good enough to open the holes needed to establish a running game and protect Glennon long enough for him to pick apart defenses without running for his life (like RW so often had to do).
Bottom line, as I said before, a good O-Line can make an average QB and running back look real good. And, Glennon and Greene are better than average at their positions, at least potentially. With guys like Crisp and Mattes on the line and with TOB well-earned reputation for developing NFL lineman, I wouldn't bet against it happening.
Please do! We'll have a
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 23:05 — mad_maxPlease do! We'll have a float just for ACCNow posters!
I didn't mean to sound pessimistic. Truly, anything is possible for the Pack this year, and I'm sure the coaching staff is preaching that.
You're absoutely right about the O-line. TOB does have the reputation for building strong lines. We have enough talent in the backfield, that if the O-line plays well, we will definitely win a good amount of games.
What makes me anxious, is the fact that the offense this year is going to look completely different from the offense of last year IMO. RW was one of those rare college QBs that could succesfully play the position in such an unconventional way. It's hard for me to predict how the O-line will be this year, because we will most likely run a more traditional type of offense, and we haven't seen these guys on the line play in a system like that yet.
All in all, I think the defense is going to be even better than last year, and the offense could potentially be very good too. Hoping for the best. Two more months!
Possibilities
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:50 — Heels207-5 is definitely a possibility, but I would think a lot would have to go wrong for State and at least some to go right for everone on their schedule for that to happen. I think 10 wins is definitely a possibility, but as you said, that probably won't be my prediction. I've seen Glennon live, on tape, and read the stat sheets. I'm simply just not sold on him yet.
State did beat Maryland in the last match up in Carter Finley. They nearly beat Clemson in Death Valley last year. When analyzing the ACC, I think a lot of people forget that most teams are rebuilding at the QB position, and many are changing up offenses. Clemson will have a new guy calling signals, while also adjusting to a new offense. How quickly they adjust will be very important in determining how big of a shot they have against State.
As you said, FSU can go ahead and be marked down as a loss. That's not a knock on State nearly as much as it's a sign that I'm a huge fan of what Jimbo Fisher has done in his short time as head coach. Most of the offense returns, and the defense made tremendous steps last season. They are most definitely my pick to win the ACC.
To avoid the longest post in the history of this blog, I'll refrain from breaking down everyone on the schedule. To sum it up, most teams in the conference are entering the season with questions at the QB position. If Glennon shows up and State's line blocks for him, considering the amount of talent the team will have on both sides of the ball, the Pack will have a large advantage over most of the conference.
You're right
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 22:51 — mad_maxOh yeah, I forgot about the 2009 win. Really ugly game if I remember correctly. Maryland ended up going 2-10 that year, and State had the worst defense I've ever seen (I'm still waiting for revenge against Duke, as sad as that sounds).
NC State should be pretty good
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 22:51 — hokiedudeI was gonna comment on the UNC situation, since that was what the article was about. But you NC State guys have taken over! Fair enough. Here's my take. We have won the ACC a lot since we joined, but I will say this: NC State has generally been among our toughest games. We lost to you guys in '04, even though we won the conference that year. The '05 game was close too (didn't win the conference that year), and so was last year (did).
Tom O'Brien is a great coach, and he was tough to beat in the Big East. I'm pretty sure he has a better roster at NC State, so he could have some nice teams there. It will hurt a lot to lose Russell Wilson, there's no doubt. He was a bad dude at QB. Glennon went to HS about 5 miles from me, and I'm pretty skeptical about him. He seems like a poor-man's version of Sean Glennon (who was underrated at VT).
But overall the talent at NC State should be pretty good, and you guys are well coached (unlike Butch, who can recruit but can't coach on game day--check our record against him at Miami and UNC). In my opinion NC State made a good long-term investment with O'Brien, and UNC made a terrible long-term choice in Davis: John Blake, John Blake, and more John Blake. Enjoy the John Blake albatros UNC fans.
By the way, I watched some of last year's ACC title game on ESPN a couple of days ago. I honestly can't figure out why I'm supposed to be scared of FSU.
65-16 since 2004. Peace.
Eh
Mon, 06/27/2011 - 00:10 — Heels20Agree with some things and disagree with others.
I was at the VT-NCSU game in '05. Lack of discipline lost that game for the Pack. Marcus Hudson's roughing the kicker (roughing or running into? Can't remember) ultimately made the difference.
I'm also skeptical about Glennon, but IF he is good, then I expect NC State will have a very good record.
Not really seeing Butch as a bad long term investment. I guess we'll know for sure after the investigation, but his teams have shown continuous progress each year. The records may not show it, but what he did this year with guys who would have been back-ups is pretty remarkable. That speaks volumes to the depth and talent he has put together since inheriting a 3-9 team.
FSU can't be judged by one game from last season. They made showed tremendous improvement on the defensive side of the ball between '09 and '10. The offense is about to be as experienced as its been in a long time. If I remember correctly, EJ Manuel is 4-2 as a starter, and two of those wins came in bowl games against quality opponents. They certainly aren't my pick for a national title, but they seem to have all the right pieces to go along with a coach who has the program heading in the right direction.
credit where credit is due
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 10:19 — JPDOhioMan, you are certainly consistent to a fault.
adversity
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 16:13 — izzykareemNo bunch can overcome adversity like Butch's kids.
No player was more intense than Tyler Hansbrough.
The Carolina Way: We are intense and overcome adversity (even if self-induced).
Something Rotten in Chapel Hill
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 16:11 — lrollinsAs a very ashamed UNC grad, I am severely disappointed with the way the university has dealt with this mess. Either Davis just turned a blind eye to what was going on or was totally incompetent. The same can be said of Baddour. I was really hoping they would both resign gracefully at the end of last season, but they are clinging to their jobs. Thorpe, who I believe is basically honest and wants to do the right thing, is being misled by these two. I hope he is just inexperienced and being fooled and not complicit. I really feel bad for the good football players on this team (and most are) who will have this hanging over them all season. And what about all the other student athletes being dragged through the mud?
TIME TO CLEAN HOUSE !!
So...
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 17:54 — Heels20Baddour, who has worked for the university for over 40 years, making integrity a priority the whole way, suddenly turned evil?
last year vs. this year
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 13:06 — JPDOhioHard to argue with Tudor's conclusions in the article. I would think that most UNC fans would be pretty happy with 8-4, considering the question marks going into the season (especially at QB) and the fact that the distractions will continue (albeit to a lesser extent) until the results of the NCAA investigation are finalized.
Last year was a missed opportunity for UNC, the likes of which they may never see again. Nobody knows what the results would have been if everyone had been allowed to play. But, given the sheer volume of NFL-level talent on the squad, I would not have bet against an ACC Championship for the Tar Heels, as a minimum. The question now is how effective can Butch be in the future, assuming he survives the controversy.
How many scholarships will be lost? Can Butch continue his recruiting success without John Blake greasing the skids? How short a leash will UNC's administration have around Butch's neck and how will that effect his ability to effectively run his program? How many players will remain eligible without tutors do their work for them for free? How will the players get to practice if they can't park their cars next to Kenan Stadium?
So many questions.
This year the emphasis is on
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:44 — unc098This year the emphasis is on the results of the investigation and the propable penalties that will ensue. This will be a distraction, but with the young talent and the leadership of Renner on the field, these players ( who are not involved directly with the investigation) will have a different mindset. I see 8-4 as the celler and hopefully 10-2 or better as a possibility. The key will be the severity of the penalties and how it will effect BDs statis. I am not sure he will be around at the end of the season.
I for one...
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 18:37 — UNC1998will not call 8-4 a success on the upcoming season. Regardless of when the penalty comes... one thing we know is that the players will be available, as the ones who weren't are now gone. Davis has to see this as his opportunity to try and soften the blow by putting out a winning product. Anything less might leave some asking questions. Personally I do not expect 11-0. I do not think this team capable. I do, however, expect them to win atleast 9 games.
I'm still curious
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 14:51 — gvillegatrHas the amt of work the tutors actually did come out yet ?
142 hours
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 15:05 — JPDOhioFree tutoring done for 9 players, as self-reported by UNC. Violation #2 in the NCAA letter.
No
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 18:49 — gvillegatrWhat kind of work was done. Not the "billable" hrs, JPD !!
No
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 18:48 — gvillegatrWhat kind of work was done. Not the "billable" hrs, JPD !!
With all due respect
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 23:45 — JPDOhioYou did say "amount", not "type" or "nature of". Still I should have known better. That was too simple.
Besides, you know it's only the amount of hours that counts. Right? :-D
situation
Fri, 06/24/2011 - 12:32 — SurferOkay, I will say it. This article makes no sense: "Similar Hurdle" and "the same situation as a year ago"? Then it concludes that the preparation equation should be easier this year. I will add one more nugget and that is, this year, there should be no ongoing drama regarding "well, who can play this week?" saga.
Furthermore, what we had in leadership, under difficult circumstances, with T.J. last year, is unproven at this point this year. I expect that the team will be good this year, but perhaps not as good as they could have been last year. Yes, I am over that now, so that is the last time I will mention it, unless in a ncessary rebuttle, of course.