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Three reasons UNC will beat Villanova

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1) Been there, done that

UNC is the only team from the 2008 Final Four in the 2009 Final Four. Experience counts, especially one as disappointing as UNC's last year in San Antonio.

So much of the '08 season was about erasing the tournament loss to Georgetown and getting to the Final Four. This UNC season has been geared, since the Kansas loss, towards winning the national title.

There's a big difference between just being happy to be there, which was the case last year, and trying to win the whole thing.

Also, UNC has already played at Ford Field, and had a successful experience there.

Last year, UNC went from Charlotte (ACC Tournament) to Raleigh (opening rounds) to Charlotte (regional) to the huge stage at the Alamadome and didn't handle the change in scenery.

This UNC team has a huge win at Ford Field, plus the experience of the ACC Tournament at a dome. Every extra bit of confidence for the UNC shooters helps.

Villanova, conversely, played on their home floor in the first round and in a garden-variety NBA building in the regionals. The adjustment to the dome setting will be a jolt, especially for the shooters, to Villanova.

2) Psyched-up Psycho T

Tyler Hansbrough scored eight points in the regional final. The two previous times Hansbrough scored eight points he responded with 31 and 27 points.

Now, both of those follow-up games were against N.C. State and Villanova is a superior defensive team to N.C. State but the Wolfpack actually had more size to deal with Hansbrough than Villanova does.

Roy Williams doesn't run a ton of set plays for Hansbrough, but he typically makes a concerted effort to get Hansbrough involved in the offense early after he has had a down scoring game.

3) Just like Duke

Villanova, in cased you missed the buildup to the East Regional, plays just like Duke. The Cats are a more talented version but in terms of a matchup and style of play, the team Villanova most resembles from UNC's schedule is Duke.

Just like Duke, Villanova relies on perimeter players and has an undersized, yet versatile, forward in the post.

UNC beat Duke 101-87 and 79-71.

Duke actually did a respectable job defending Hansbrough in both games (giving up 17 in each game). It was Ty Lawson, 24 in the first game, a near triple-double in the second, that gave Duke so much trouble.

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Just like Duke

This is exactly right, with one huge exception. You point out that the real reason UNC could consistently beat Duke is that they were completely unable to handle Lawson. Scottie Reynolds may be as close to Lawson's quickness as anyone will get on the college level. Without that big edge this is a challenging matchup for Carolina.

UNC

was not "happy to be in San Antonio" last year. they were the #1 seed overall and the favs. those aren't "happy to be there" teams.

I would also say UNC appears to get Deon Thompson the ball early to see what he can do. or, it's just conicidental b/c once he touches it, it is going up!

I would have thought one of th three points in here would have been, "We have Ty Lawson and you do not." I was wrong.

Wrong, Gatr

 

Everything UNC did in '08 was about getting to the Final Four. And, yes, they were just happy to be there. How else do you explain the first 10 minutes of that Kansas game?

This season, from Day One, has been about winning the title, not just getting there.

— JPG

 

agree to disagree ... again

everyone wants to be in the Final 4 every year.  UNC expects to be there every year.  no such thing as happy to be there for these guys in the way you mean it. 

More than 3

There are plenty of other factors that favor the Heels, but these three will do for now. Go Heels!

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About the blogger

J.P. Giglio covers the ACC for the News & Observer, where he has worked since 1997.

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