Summer Kickoff: Part I

Part II: Wake, Maryland, BC
Part III: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, UNC
Part IV: Miami, Virginia, Duke

In predicted order of finish:

N.C. STATE

Record: 6-7 overall, 4-4 ACC (sixth, Atlantic)

Bowl: lost to Rutgers, 29-23 in Papa Johns

They're here: QB Russell Wilson, DE Willie Young, WR Owen Spencer

They're gone: RB Andre Brown, TE Anthony Hill, CB Dominique Ellis

Plus

• Scary thought for the rest of the ACC: quarterback Russell Wilson led the conference in total offense (213.0 yards per game) and passing efficiency (133.9 rating), without a real grip on the offense.

"He knew the first read and to run if it wasn't there," State coach Tom O'Brien said.

In his third year with O'Brien and offensive coordinator Dana Bible, Wilson's understanding of the offense, and its nuances, will only go up. Given Wilson only threw one interception in 2008, as a first-time starter no less,  he didn't leave himself much room to improve.

From his first day on the job, O'Brien stressed taking care of the ball. State was an abysmal minus-16 (which was 116th in the country) in O'Brien's first season and then jumped to plus-8 (which was 22nd) last year. The difference, on the giveaway side, can be attributed to Wilson's uncanny ability to take care of the ball.

And that's not to paint Wilson as a caretaker. He accounted for 21 touchdowns (17 passing, four rushing) in what essentially turned out to be nine full games.

Wilson's the best offensive player in the ACC and he gives State a puncher's chance to win the division, whether injured linebacker Nate Irving plays a snap this season or not.

• The schedule starts with four home games outside the ACC. In the previous two years, State played Boston College in Week 2 and Clemson in Week 3. The Pack lost both conference openers and began the conference race in a hole.

This year, if there's a missed step without Irving or the secondary's as leaky as predicted, adjustments can be made by Oct. 3 when State travels to Wake Forest for its ACC opener.

A schedule with eight home games, a first in the program's 117-year history, is also a bonus. So is the Week 8 bye, which gives the team a break on Oct. 24 before a five-game finish against what could be four of the best teams in the league.

• Back in '07, O'Brien ran his first team through end-game scenarios — 2-minute drill, 4-minute drill, you-name-the-minute drill — in practice. The players admitted they had never been through such drills, which are essentially the basics of game preparation. It showed in the opener, a loss to Central Florida, when a receiver set tried to substitute during an end-game scramble and cost the offense a penalty.

Those type of mental errors should be history in their third season together. The players know what to expect from O'Brien and vice versa. They know his drills, and more importantly, they've been schooled in how to play the game.

Steve Spurrier likes to call it "coaching 'em up," whatever you call it, in Year 3, State's players will be more comfortable with O'Brien and his staff.

Minus

• There's no way around the fact the absence of linebacker Nate Irving, who broke his leg in a car accident on June 28, will affect the defense. Despite missing three games in '08, the junior linebacker made 80 tackles and led the team with four interceptions.

His ability to read the play, particularly in pass coverage, will not be easily replaced, especially on a team that needs all the help it can get in pass defense.

Young linebackers like Dwayne Maddox, Terrell Manning and Sterling Lucas might be sufficient replacements for Irving but it will be difficult for anyone to step in and provide the leadership and playmaking that Irving did last season.

• Speaking of pass defense, nobody in the ACC gave up more yards through the air than State (248.7) and it wasn't because their run defense was so dominant, teams had to pass.

O'Brien and coordinator Mike Archer specifically play a bend-but-don't-break scheme, which works to prevent the big play, but also allows receivers to catch the ball and make plays underneath.

Archer knew he was losing seniors J.C. Neal, a safety, and Jeremy Gray, a corner, but then lost Dominique Ellis (transfer) at the other corner.

Safety Clem Johnson has been good when healthy, which hasn't been often, and safety Justin Byers showed some promise, but of all the attrition the program has gone through the past two seasons, the secondary has been hit the hardest. There's just a shortage of capable bodies.

Schedule

What went right

• An alleged five-quarterback race in the spring and August camp, produced redshirt-freshman Russell Wilson as the starter. All Wilson did was become the best quarterback in the ACC.

• After another injury-filled, slow start (2-6), State finished 4-1 and identified leaders on both sides of the ball in Wilson and Irving.

• State thrashed UNC 41-10 in Chapel Hill, giving O'Brien a 2-0 start against the Tar Heels and Butch Davis. The Pack went 4-0 against in-state foes sweeping Duke, Wake Forest and ECU as well.

What went wrong

• The offense was lost without Wilson, who threw one pick in 275 attempts. His backups, both since departed, combined to throw 12 interceptions in 47 attempts.

• The defense no-showed in consecutive home losses to South Florida (41-10) and Boston College (38-31).

• After such a strong finish — the only ACC team to win its final four regular-season games — State couldn't hold a 17-6 halftime lead in the bowl game when Wilson went out with a knee injury. Wilson did a lot last season but he didn't play defense.

Leaders

FLORIDA STATE

Record: 9-4 overall, 5-3 ACC (second, Atlantic)

Bowl: beat Wisconsin, 42-13 in Champs Sports

They're here: QB Christian Ponder, LB Dekoda Watson, C Ryan McMahon

They're gone: K Graham Gano, RB Antone Smith, S Myron Rolle

Plus

• For the first time in at least three (maybe four) years, the Seminoles have the overall most talented group of offensive players in the ACC.

Even if junior quarterback Christian Ponder never develops into the world-beater once predicted, the offensive line has enough experience and skill to finally restore consistent punch to the ground game.

• There are more defensive questions than usual, but cornerbacks Patrick and Jamie Robinson (no relation) and all-star linebacker Dakoda Watson will provide strong leadership.

Minus

• Graham Gano's graduation means the program's oldest and costliest nemesis — kicking — could resurface as a problem and at a time when the opening game is against Miami.

Rookie Dustin Hopkins will probably handle placements, but the punting picture is cloudy. Returnee Shawn Powell lost the job to Gano midway through '08.

• The back side of the schedule isn't friendly by FSU standards. Three of the final four games will be on the road, including Atlantic Division dates against Clemson and Wake Forest, followed by a Nov. 28 closer against Florida on Tim Tebow's senior day.

Schedule

What went right

• Without great quarterbacking, the Seminoles still averaged 33 points. Almost 120 of those points were piled up against Chattanooga and Western Carolina, but 30 were posted against Virginia Tech, 39 against Colorado and 42 in a bowl win over Wisconsin.

• A virtually decimated offensive line from 2007 was quickly rebuilt by assistant Rick Trickett around then-sophomores Rodney Hudson (guard) and Ryan McMahon (center), who made it possible for senior runner Antone Smith to gain 868 yards on the ground.

• Gano was remarkable, converting 24 of 26 field-goal chances and punting 22 times for an average 42.7 yards.

What went wrong

• With Ponder throwing almost as many interceptions as touchdown passes, the offense sputtered to no end in key losses to Wake Forest and Boston College.

• The 45-15 loss to Tebow and the Gators was the latest indication of how far the Seminoles have retreated in the state championship race. Jimbo Fisher’s offense — 102 yards rushing, 140 passes, three interceptions — came across as sterile and timid.

Leaders

Note: x-returning, y-injured

CLEMSON

Record: 7-6 overall, 4-4 ACC (fifth, Atlantic)

Bowl: lost to Nebraska, 26-21 in Gator

They're here: RB C.J. Spiller, G Thomas Austin, DE Da'Quan Bowers

They're gone: Coach Tommy Bowden, WR Aaron Kelly, RB James Davis

Plus

• The Tigers have seven starters back on defense, plus end Ricky Sapp, who is recovering from a knee injury. That's a lot of talent for new coordinator Kevin Steele to work with.

Steele, fresh from Alabama and Nick Saban's 3-4 scheme, should have some creative ideas. Plus, head coach Dabo Swinney has said he's going to stay out of Steele's way and let him earn his reported salary of $350,000.

Also, in senior corners Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, the Tigers have the best pair of cover men in the conference.

• The options on offense are down from four gamebreakers to two but C.J. Spiller (629 rushing yards) and Jacoby Ford (55 catches) are two good options to have.

Without James Davis, Spiller won't have to worry about sharing touches or not seeing the ball. If he can play injury-free, which has been a challenge, he could lead the ACC in rushing.

Ford's smallish (5-10) at receiver but quick and can break the big play, which Clemson will need with a young quarterback, either Kyle Parker or Willy Korn.

Minus

• The Wall Street Journal wrote an interesting piece on the correlation between experience on the offensive line and success. That has led everyone with a wireless connection to deduce that Clemson, with four starters back on the O-line, will have great blocking in '09.

The problem with the WSJ report is it doesn't take into account quality, just quantity. Clemson's line was awful last year. It was so bad, the coach (Tommy Bowden) got fired after six games.

The Tigers averaged 3.4 yards per carry, only Duke (3.0) and Wake (3.1) averaged less — and without the benefit of two NFL running backs.

The 33 sacks allowed were the second-most in the ACC, behind Virginia Tech (42, also another WSJ favorite).

They ranked 99th nationally in rushing offense (111.5 yards per game) despite the benefit of playing two games against Division I-AA teams. 

Clemson's line was universally accepted as garbage in '08 yet somehow, it's magically going to turn into the Seven Blocks of Granite in '09.

Why?

It should also be pointed out that Clemson still has three sophomores starting. In '11, if everyone's still there, then the line will be a strength, not in '09 though.

• That's a tricky schedule for the Tigers with four days between the opener and a road game against Georgia Tech. That smacks of an 0-1 ACC start and then TCU comes to town on Sept. 26, intent on proving it's a BCS-worthy team (the Horned Frogs could be going for an ACC sweep, they open at Virginia).

• The end of the Little Bowden Era (and gratefully the Bowden Bowl) was long overdue but the choice of Swinney was uninspired, if not primarily motivated by the lack of cashflow from Bowden's buyout ($3.5 million).

(Note: If one Clemson fan emails me, "It's because he beat South Carolina," please ask yourself the following the question — Is beating South Carolina in football, or in anything but gold Hootie records, really justification for hiring your coach? If so, raise your standards.) 

It's a difficult leap to go from receivers' coach to head coach and it's tough to learn on the job. As other ACC teams have found out the hard way, when you don't hire an experienced coach, there's a steep learning curve.

Swinney not only has to overcome everyone thinking of him still as a subordinate but he also has to figure how to be the head coach at a major program with major expectations.

With his youth (39) and lack of experience, some Clemson fans are dubbing Dabo the next Danny Ford, who led the Tigers to the national title in 1981.

He'll have to be, otherwise Clemson will be looking for a new coach in three years.

Schedule

What went right

• Won four of the final five games to get to 7-5 and qualify for a bowl game.

What went wrong

• The Tigers opened the season as the favorite to win the league and ranked No. 9 in the country but the bottom fell out hard and fast.

From the opener, a 34-10 loss to Alabama, to the truncated finish, a 12-7 loss to Wake Forest on Oct. 9,
Tommy Bowden's 10th season was a flat-out disaster.

The quarterback (Cullen Harper) was terrible, the offensive line was worse and the defense never recovered from the beatdown by Alabama's offensive line on national television.

With the Wake loss — a Thursday night catastrophe, a clinic in how not to block — Bowden was forced to resign.

• The strong finish was somewhat muted by a 26-21 loss to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl.

Leaders 

Note: x-returning

— By J.P. Giglio and Caulton Tudor