Summer Hoops Preview: Part IV

• Summer Hoops Preview: The Picks
• Part I: UNC, BC, FSU
• Part II: Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson
• Part III: Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia

N.C. STATE

2008-09 record: 16-14 overall, 6-10 ACC (10th)

Postseason: none

Projected starting lineup: G Julius Mays, G C.J. Williams, F Richard Howell, F Dennis Horner, F Tracy Smith

Plus

• Addition by subtraction. With the exits of Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells, the last ties to former coach Herb Sendek are all but severed. Every coach deserves a chance to be judged by the talent he brings into a program and how he manages that talent. Sidney Lowe gets that chance this season, his fourth.

In his first three seasons, Lowe had to work with someone else's players, fit for a different system. Lowe no longer has to fulfill promises he didn't make on the recruiting trail. They're his players and they should be working from a common ground.

That's not to make Costner, McCauley or Fells out to be the scapegoats for Lowe's 15-33 ACC record, just that they were brought in under a different set of circumstances.

Clearly, after two inconsistent underachieving seasons, the Sendek Three and Lowe and were never on the same page. Yet their talent was such, particularly compared to what else was left in the program, that Lowe had little choice but to rely on Costner, McCauley and Fells for the start of his tenure. When Lowe did mix in his recruited talent (J.J Hickson in 2008), the results were disastrous.

From the jump on Year 4, those problems are behind Lowe.

• Tracy Smith. One of the biggest mistakes media-types make in projections is we forget to factor in improvement. For example (and bear with the UNC reference, State fans), but Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington were miles better as juniors than they were as sophomores.

Players get older, they get more experience, they learn and they get better. We lose sight of that in college basketball because there are so many prospects that leave after one or two years or we downgrade the ones that stick around because of some bizarro NBA-potential stigma.

The point of that preamble is Tracy Smith is going to be a mile better as a junior. The power forward went from averaging 3.3 points as a freshman to 10.0 last year. In his third season, don't be surprised if Smith's numbers jump another seven points.

He's a no-nonsense player around the basket and he understands how to score points, either by attacking the rim or getting to the foul line (his 123 free-throw attempts were second on the team despite only starting 12 times and playing an average of 18.2 minutes per game.)

Minus

• Not enough new blood. The key to Lowe starting over in Year 4 was bringing in better talent. If Lorenzo Brown had qualified, Lowe would have had a new guard to go with two ACC-ready big men and a promising shooter.

With Brown's detour to prep school, Lowe's only bringing in the aforementioned big men — who either play the same position as each other or the best player on the roster — and a promising shooter who just went from being asked to specialize to possibly being asked to be both Scott Wood and Lorenzo Brown.

Lowe and Lee Fowler's expectation for the '09-'10 season is progress. That's code for "We don't expect to make the NCAA Tournament."

It would have been a lot more palatable for State fans to sit through a rebuilding season if Lowe was able to develop Brown, Richard Howell, DeShawn Painter and Wood together, won-loss record be damned, as a down payment on a future NCAA Tournament run.

Without Brown, Lowe's trying to start over with many of the same parts — Julius Mays, Javi Gonzalez, Smith, C.J. Williams — that he either mishandled or ignored for long stretches of last season. It's tough to sell a fan base on a restart when really the cards are being reshuffled in a transparent game of three-card monte.

• Defense. State ranked last in the ACC in steals and blocks. They have to create more turnovers to create more easy points to take the pressure off the point guards and the halfcourt offense.

Bottom line

If you've read the first three installments of the Summer Hoops Preview, you know that we've included Dave Telep's analysis on all of the incoming freshmen. Since Brown won't be here, I'll share Telep's scouting report on Brown — before he knew Brown would be going to Hargrave — in this space:

"Key to the season, in my opinion," Telep said. "If he can take care of the ball, be the scorer that he has shown he can and forge chemistry with the other guys in the backcourt then it will be a success. He has got the biggest expectations of maybe any freshman coming into the league."

That should give you an inkling to Brown's importance.

In a wide-open league, with a new start, maybe Lowe could have made a move this season. After all, that 6-10 record easily could have been 8-8 last season with the right breaks (or the proper officiating in the case of the loss at Virginia Tech). Throw in three major prospects in Brown, Howell and Painter and it's sunny-side up for the program.

But Brown's absence starts the re-start campaign with a kidney punch. Maybe Mays and Williams can grow as a productive backcourt. Maybe Wood and Gonzalez, who emerged as their best 3-point shooter, can relieve some of the pressure on Smith, whose staring at a season of zones and double-teams. Maybe Lowe will develop a rotation earlier in the season and get a better grip on his personnel.

If all of those scenarios break right, State still only maxes out at eight wins.  The program needs a shot of life, and maybe the five remaining freshmen can add that, but it's impossible to lucidly predict anything but another bottom third finish for the Wolfpack with the way the season has effectively started.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Howell: "Blue collar special. Howell works hard for points inside and has shown enough perimeter to keep you honest. Pack will need him to be a man on the boards."

Painter: "Big expectations for him this kid who has fought hard to get to where he is. Long-bodied, can face to mid-range and has a great attitude."

Wood: "The better the Pack is, the better Wood will be. If he can get looks off the drive-and-kick, he'll make them count. He has got size and should he add a mid-range element that would be huge. He's a specialist with a high level stroke."

Davis: "A young man who wanted to wear the Red and White and will scrap. He's a program guy with super grades and is proud to play for Pack."

VIRGINIA TECH

2008-09 record: 19-15 overall, 7-9 ACC (eighth)

Postseason: 1-1, lost to Baylor in the second round of the NIT

Projected starting lineup: G Dorenzo Hudson, G Malcolm Delaney, F J.T. Thompson, F Jeff Allen, F Cadarian Raines

Plus

• Malcolm Delaney. For all the heat Seth Greenberg took for passing on Steph Curry, he found an acceptable alternative in Delaney.

Delaney has the rare ability to score predominantly from outside yet still get to the free-throw line. His 225 free-throw attempts were second-only to Tyler Hansbrough (249).

• Good coaching. Virginia Tech basketball was a clown show the first half of this decade, missing the Big East Tournament — not NCAA, but their own conference tournament — in the final three years under Ricky Stokes.

For Seth Greenberg to have won 38 games in his first five ACC seasons, with three seasons at .500 or above, is the equivalent of Duke's football team playing in three bowl games in five years.

Minus

• Momentum. As good as Delaney, Jeff Allen, A.D. Vassallo and Greenberg were last season, it wasn't enough to get the Hokies back to the NCAA Tournament. A fluke halfcourt shot by Xavier in the season-opener practically doomed their tournament bid before it started.

The season before the team came up just short of an NCAA bid, too, also due to some dubious early losses. Greenberg has the January and February parts down, he needs to be as good of a coach in November.

Instead of what should be a program coming off three straight years in the Tournament, the Hokies haven't been since '07, and have no momentum to show for what were relatively successful seasons.

•  Help. Without Vassallo, the Hokies are a two-legged team in a four-horse race. A healthy J.T. Thompson should support Delaney and Allen but that still only brings the equation back to last year's not-good-enough level.

Maybe after an uninspired freshman season Victor Davila can chip in or one of the four freshmen will pan out, otherwise, this is a team that will only go as far as its two stars.

Bottom line

Greenberg has definitely outkicked his coverage before but the tax of missing the tournament the last two seasons is overdue.

Between Delaney and Allen, they can win another seven games, but even if the stars align, there's not enough talent in the program to push much further up the ACC ladder.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Raines: "So much improvement from season to season, I went out on a limb and ranked him high based on upside, late blooming status and immense physical/athletic ability. He is a go-to move away from impacting as a freshman. Loves to block shots."

Atkins: "A wing guy who has character and will find himself chipping it at SF and SG."

Green: "Tough to really figure him out at times but he has shown to be a team guy who has the ability to score. Can he distribute the ball in the ACC at a high level? That’s the question."

Boggs: "He'll be Tech's answer to former Clemson sniper Terrence Oglesby."

MIAMI

2008-09 record: 19-13 overall, 7-9 ACC (ninth)

Postseason: 1-1 lost to Florida in the second round of the NIT

Projected starting lineup: G Malcolm Grant, G James Dews, F DeQuan Jones, F Cyrus McGowan, F Dwayne Collins

Plus

• Athleticism. Frank Haith as an eye for talent. Dwayne Collins, DeQuan Jones and James Dews certainly all look the part, and at times, can also play the part.

Haith added another top 25 recruit in guard Durand Scott and top 75 recruit in forward Donnavan Kirk.

Minus

• No more Jack McClinton. Jack McClinton meant as much to his team as any player in the country. Consider the Canes won seven ACC games with McClinton. What will they do without him?

• More Frank Haith. He plays way too much zone for the talent he has. He changes lineups — early and often. He ignores his best post player for long stretches during both the course of an individual game and the season. He buried his best freshman on the bench.

The guy can recruit, and he's personable, but he completely mismanaged last year's team.

Bottom line

McClinton delayed the predicted flop for this program (picked last in '08) by two seasons. With just a little coaching, Miami would have been back in the NCAA Tournament last season.

Without McClinton and with a roster of players who have no clue what their roles are and/or spent the previous season trying to get Haith's attention, the Canes are in the path of a Category 5 disaster.

They have no home-court advantage and no hope of out-coaching anyone, even in a wide-open ACC that equals last place.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Scott: "To me, he's the best defensive guard to come into the league. His offense will come in spots but he's a winner."

Kirk: "The reason why I liked him so much was that he demonstrated an ability to get traffic rebounds and be a presence above the rim and on the glass."

Allen: "They love him for his Baltimore toughness and let's face it, Miami has killed it with late bloomers like McClinton in the past."

Adams: "Has all the tools to be a big scorer in time. He will need to adjust to playing at a high level each time out."

— By J.P. Giglio