Summer Hoops Preview: Part IV

Part I: UNC, Duke, Wake

Part II: Clemson, Miami, Va. Tech

Part III: Ga. Tech, BC, Maryland

Part IV: N.C. State, FSU, Virginia

N.C. State

2007-08 record: 15-16, 4-12 ACC (12th)

Postseason: none

Projected starting lineup: G Farnold Degand, G Courtney Fells, F Tracy Smith, F Brandon Costner, F Ben McCauley

New additions: G Julius Mays, F C.J. Williams

Dave Telep's recruiting analysis: "These are two guys who are going to provide depth at their positions. They are not immediate impact players. Mays could possibly give them some scoring and steal some minutes at the point. ... Williams adds depth at the 3."

Outlook: A year after picking N.C. State to finish third in the ACC, there's going to be some over-correcting by the media with the Wolfpack this season, starting right here. I picked State to finish fourth last season. They're going off at 10th this time.

The reason? Point guard is the obvious answer but there's more. N.C. State, which lost the final nine games of the season for the first time in the program's history, was an inept offensive team, ranking last in the ACC in scoring (67.3 points per game) and a bad rebounding team, last in the ACC in rebounding margin, in 2007-08. There's no reason to believe either category will dramatically improve this season.

What made State so bad on offense was not only the lack of point guard — although even when Farnold Degand was healthy there were flaws — to make the other players in the offense better, notably Brandon Costner, but the counterproductive decision to stop and setup a halfcourt offense. Counterproductive in the sense that the team could not execute a functional halfcourt set yet insisted on running one, even when the only option was J.J. Hickson, who was double-teamed for nine-tenths of the season.

State refused to run last season. Coach Sidney Lowe said Thursday that would change this season. That's a smart move, assuming Lowe wants to see the end of his contract.

Transition points are free points and State has athletic enough players, Courtney Fells of note, to at least attempt to push the tempo.

Of course, a big part of transition is defense, which State — by choice — doesn't extend its perimeter pressure beyond the 3-point line. There's an element of daring-slash-allowing teams to shoot from the perimeter in Lowe's scheme because he doesn't believe the 3 is a high-percentage shot. There's a kernel of wisdom in that philosophy but it only works if you can rebound and don't allow second-chance points. Despite a conspicuous size advantage — particularly early in the nonconference schedule — State was out-rebounded in 18 games.

The good news is rebounding is a function of hustle and desire. Properly motivated, and conditioned, State's rebounding could vastly improve next season.

With all of their faults, State will still be a better team next season. Ostensibly, it has to be, certainly with a better, more consistent effort. There's a real possibility, despite the limitations and overpopulation at point guard, that Fells, Costner and Ben McCauley can find their form from the 2006-07 season. Production from those three alone would ensure a better record than 4-12 in the ACC.

The question is how much better can State really be? Seven ACC wins? Anything above four, or the five Lowe won his first season, is an improvement, which the coach needs to show in Year 3, not so much for the fan base but for recruiting.

The truth is there's going to be a gap between the top and bottom half of the league but not much difference between the last six teams. N.C. State will be huddled right there with Maryland and Boston College and the other flawed teams fighting for a spot at the grown-up table.

Florida State

2007-08 record: 19-15, 7-9 ACC (ninth)

Postseason: NIT (0-1) lost to Akron in the first round

Projected starting lineup: G Derwin Kitchen, G Toney Douglas, F Chris Singleton, F Uche Echefu, F Solomon Alabi

New additions: F Chris Singleton, F Xavier Gibson, G Deividas Dulkys, G Derwin Kitchen, G Luke Loucks, G Pierre Jordan

Dave Telep's recruiting analysis: "Singleton is a talented, talented player; he can shoot. If he puts everything together, he can make a living playing basketball. ... Gibson is a long, angular guy, who's going to benefit from a college strength and conditioning program. ...Luke Loucks is a quarterback with the ability to blend in and be part of the team. He's an old-school guard. ... Dulkys is a 3-point specialist."

Outlook: The big surprise of the 2007-08 ACC season wasn't N.C. State's nosedive but FSU's decision to extend Leonard Hamilton's contract through 2011-12. The Noles did not make the NCAA Tournament in Hamilton's first six seasons and won't get there in Year 7.

The Noles have size and talent but a lack of experience in the backcourt beyond Toney Douglas. Juco transfer Derwin Kitchen takes over at the point. The Noles will miss the talented perimeter trio of Isaiah Swann, Ralph Mims and Jason Rich.

Up front, the Noles have some prospects, despite the transfer of promising forward Julian Vaughn. Soloman Alabi, a top-25 recruit from the Class of 2007, missed all but nine games of his freshman season with a foot injury. If completely healthy, he allows Uche Echefu to play the 4 and not have to defend the opponent's biggest player.

On another team, in another season, Douglas could have been All-ACC with his 15.4 scoring average, but the Noles are stuck in a 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 pattern and they can't get out of it. Part of it is Hamilton, who appears to be picking the bench rotation out of a hat before every game and maybe even at halftime. The former Miami coach consistently recruits top-100 talent but has not been able to parlay it into anything more than the NIT.

This season promises to be more of the same, if not a step back from the 7-to-9 win range. College basketball is about guards. Douglas is good, but the missing pieces from last year's competitive team will adversely affect this one.

Virginia

2007-08 record: 17-16, 5-11 ACC (10th)

Postseason: CBI (2-2) lost to Bradley in the fourth round

Projected starting lineup: G Sammy Zeglinski, G Calvin Baker, F Mamadi Diane, F Mike Scott, F Laurynas Mikalauskas

New additions: F Sylven Landesberg, F John Brandenburg, F Assane Sene

Dave Telep's recruiting analysis: "Landesberg is the definition of the sum is better than the individual parts. He contributes with the pass, he can score as a 2 or a 3. He's a winner and it's a mentality he's going to bring to Virginia. ...Brandenburg is a rebounder with good size but he's never been a big scorer. They're going to have to hope that his offense improves."

Outlook: As bad as the football season promises to be for the Wahoos, the basketball season will be even worse.

Sean Singletary carried Virginia to five ACC wins last year — a year after the Hoos won 11 and shared first place with UNC in the regular season. Singletary, and his 19.8 points and 6.1 assists, are gone.

In his place comes Sammy Zeglinski, whose freshman season was derailed by ankle injuries. So not only did Dave Leitao waste Singletary's senior season with a pedestrian supporting cast, he didn't even have the chance to groom Zeglinski, who went to the same high school as Singletary. Leitao better hope Zeglinski has the same playmaking skills, not that the Hoos are a point guard away from the Final Four.

UVa needs better players. Period. Sylven Landesberg, a McDonald's All-American, is only the third top-100 recruit on UVa's roster, joining sophomore guard Jeff Jones — who should displace William & Mary transfer Calvin Baker as the starter but who knows with Emperor Leitao — and junior forward Jamil Tucker.

Jones and Tucker averaged 15 minutes a game last season, so Landesberg, even with his reputation, may want to get comfortable with the seating arrangements at John Paul Jones Arena.

Virginia's frontcourt is functional but hardly overwhelming. Mike Scott had a nice freshman season, averaging 5.2 boards a game, but the next time he creates his shot will be the first.

Laurynas Mikalauskas missed 13 games with a shoulder injury but when he returned he scored in double-figures in six of the final 10 games.

That leaves the immortal Mamadi Diane, who averaged 11.8 points per game, but was as likely to score six points as he was 20. You never know which Diane you're going to get.

This Virginia team will be more predictable. There's a chance here — if Leitao takes it — to develop the younger players and maybe build for the 2009-10 season. Of course, UVa didn't collect $191 million for a new arena for a never-ending rebuilding cycle. Leitao, despite an inspiring start to his tenure, is officially on the clock.