Summer Hoops Preview: Part I

• Summer Hoops Preview: The Picks
• Part II: Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson
• Part III: Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia
• Part IV: N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Miami 

UNC

2008-09 record: 34-4 overall, 13-3 ACC (first)

Postseason: 6-0, beat Michigan State in national championship game

Projected starting lineup: PG Larry Drew II, SG Dexter Strickland, G/F Marcus Ginyard, F Ed Davis (left), F Deon Thompson

Plus

• Size. Here's a brutal reality check for the rest of the ACC — UNC lost Tyler Hansbrough, the leading scorer in ACC history, and will still have one of the best frontcourts in the country.

There are the returnees — Deon Thompson, Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller — and the additions of freshmen John Henson and Travis and David Wear. Given Roy Williams' propensity to play a deep rotation, they'll all be given a chance to make some hay.

And while Hansbrough will go down statistically as the most consistently productive player in ACC history, his defense lagged far behind his scoring and rebounding prowess. Between Davis, who led the team in blocks (30) in just 18.8 minutes per game, and the long-armed Henson, opponents will have to work for every square inch of the paint.

•  Leader. After redshirting last season with a foot injury, senior wing Marcus Ginyard says he’s healthy, which adds a much-needed dose of leadership and perimeter defense.

Minus

• Guard play. The Tar Heels have only one true point guard in Larry Drew II and the sophomore is more in the mold of Williams' Kansas point guards — pass first, pass second, score third (think Adonis Jordan or Jacque Vaughn) — as opposed to the two explosive, scoring, game-changing point guards (Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson), Williams won a national title with at UNC.

That's not necessarily a bad thing, particularly given UNC's frontcourt options, but it does change the dynamic of the offense, particularly in late-game situations or in prolonged scoring draughts.

Ginyard and freshman Dexter Strickland can handle the ball, but the onus will be on Drew to stay out of foul (and turnover) trouble.

•  3-point shooting. UNC lost 88.2 percent of the 3-point shooting off of last year’s title team, and the Heels are so thin on the perimeter, junior Will Graves, a reserve suspended midway through last season, will have the opportunity to shovel his way out of the doghouse and into the starting lineup, at least until Strickland finds his sea legs.

Bottom line

This team has already been compared to the 2005-06 squad, which lost its top seven scorers after winning the national title but went 12-4 in the ACC and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

The senior leadership of David Noel had a lot to do with the success of that overachieving '06 team (and Hansbrough).

This team does lose their top four scorers (Hansbrough, Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green), and its backcourt depth (Bobby Frasor), but they return a starter in Thompson, a future lottery pick in Davis and a leader in Ginyard.

In any other year, the lack of backcourt experience would knock the Tar Heels down a peg but with the attrition at Duke, and the parity around the league, you can count on the Heels going off as both the preseason favorite to win the league and open in the top-5 nationally.

The bigs will be outstanding but ultimately, just like '06, how the season ends depends on ability of the guards to save the team in tight situations.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Henson: "To me he will go down as one of the three best players ever recruited by Roy Wiliams. He's that good of a prospect. I toyed with making him No. 1 overall on a hunch that five years from now he could be that player. He has "Inspector Gadget" arms and a great demeanor. He and [Georgia Tech forward Derrick] Favors are the new order in the league."

Strickland: "The value comes in his versatility — he can be a backup handler, has shown the willingness and ability to score. For him, it'll be about stepping up and into a big role quickly."

McDonald: "He’ll take Ginyard’s place eventually and bring the same defensive intensity with a slightly more diverse offensive attack. He's a total team guy who sees himself as a part of something even bigger."

Wear, Wear: "You’ve got to figure that the twins will be in a dogfight for minutes as freshmen. It's a numbers game and they'll play more as the years go by but early on I think they'll receive sparse minutes because of depth. These guys are skilled, and are getting better inside but will it be enough given the level of players UNC has inside?"

BOSTON COLLEGE

2008-09 record: 22-12 overall, 9-7 ACC (sixth)

Postseason: 0-1, lost to USC in the first round of the NCAA Tournament

Projected starting lineup: PG Biko Paris, SG Rakim Sanders (right), F Corey Raji, F Joe Trapani, F Josh Southern

Plus

• Experience. In Rakim Sanders, Corey Raji, Joe Trapani and Josh Southern, BC has four players who started 34 games together last season. Given the value of timing and knowledge in Al Skinner's flex offense, BC has an enormous advantage over the other teams who are reloading their rosters.

• New star. Sanders, an oversized 2-guard, should step into Tyrese Rice's role as the No. 1 option on offense. He must improve his consistency but when you look back at BC last year, and it won 22 games and made the NCAA Tournament, the Eagles were at their best when Sanders was rolling.

Minus

• No more Tyrese Rice. The diminutive point guard absolutely carried the program as a junior and was the team's unquestioned leader for the past two seasons, both of which he led the team in scoring (16.9 last season, down from 21.0 in '08).

Rice could bail out the offense with his 3-point shooting but was still unselfish enough to have 117 more assists than anyone else on the roster. A true star in this league and had he played in this state, he would have been a three-time first-team All-ACC selection.

• No new blood. Curious to see a program stand pat in recruiting. UNC did it '08 but had five McDonald's All-Americans on the roster. The Eagles could have used some more size and interior help, which would have allowed the slight Trapani to work less on defense.

Bottom line

Skinner has won 34 ACC games since joining the conference, only Roy Williams (50) and Mike Krzyzewski (46) have won more. While not a great game coach, Skinner has knack for teaching his system — and getting his players to both buy into and execute — which gives BC an edge over the other teams chasing UNC and Duke.

Even without Rice's immense talent, there are experienced parts in place to improve on last year's unexpected 9-7 finish. If Sanders takes the next step, and either Biko Paris or Reggie Jackson can run the offense efficiently, then BC will win 10 games and push the big boys for the top spot.

New additions: none

FLORIDA STATE

2008-09 record: 25-10 overall, 10-6 ACC (fourth)

Postseason: 0-1, lost to Wisconsin in the first round of the NCAA Tournament

Projected starting lineup: PG Derwin Kitchen (left), SG Michael Snaer, F Chris Singleton, F Ryan Reid, F Solomon Alabi

Plus

• Defense. With 7-1 Solomon Alabi, a projected lottery pick, and his league-high 2.1 blocks per game last season, FSU led the ACC in scoring defense (allowing 64.9 points per game). The loss of guard Toney Douglas, and his ability to pressure the ball, will hurt that cause (and every other one) but Leonard Hamilton will always be a defense-first coach and FSU's raw athletic ability is right up there with any team in the league.

• Head start. With an exhibition tour in Spain next month, the Noles had their first practice of the season on Friday – a welcome test for a team trying to get a jump start on the rest of the league.

Minus

• Offense. FSU was at the bottom of the league standings in scoring last season (68.3 points per game), and the loss of Douglas’ league-high 21.5 ppg hurts. The addition of shooting guard Michael Snaer, a McDonald’s All-American, should help, but the inconsistent combo of guards Luke Loucks, Deividas Dulkys has to make progress to round out the backcourt.

• With all that size, the Noles ranked 11th in the conference in rebounding margin (+0.9) and one of their hardest workers, forward Uche Echefu, is gone. Alabi, Chris Singleton, Ryan Reid and raw sophomore Xavier Gibson all have to improve on the glass.

Bottom line

Derwin Kitchen is not Douglas, but with the presence of Alabi and Singleton, he doesn't have to be.

The ending, a two-point loss to 12th-seeded Wisconsin in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, was a complete and utter failure but the Noles have the pieces, and a low-pressure situation, to build on the parts of last year — 10 ACC wins for the first time in 15 years, the first ACC Tournament title game appearance — that were a success.

Douglas' leadership, more than his on-court skills, will be missed. After winning 10 conference games, the Noles will take a half-step back but should still be an NCAA Tournament team.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Snaer: "He will have the responsibility of turning the numbers on the scoreboard. He is ahead of the curve athletically and can strike from deep or finish with a dunk. He should have an immediate impact."

Shannon: "He’s a big question mark because of a severe knee injury he suffered last July. Just as he was on the cusp of a breakout event in Las Vegas, he went down and needed surgery. When healthy he’s a live-bodied guy inside."

— By Robbi Pickeral and J.P. Giglio