Summer Hoops Preview '11: Part II

2009-10 record: 20-17 overall, 5-11 ACC (10th)

Postseason: NIT (4-1, lost to Dayton)

Projected starting lineup: G Larry Drew II, G Reggie Bullock, F Harrison Barnes, F John Henson, F Tyler Zeller

Plus

• Instant offense

Freshmen Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock give UNC two players capable of scoring points and carrying a perimeter offense.

Barnes can create his own shot and Bullock can hit an outside shot, two big problems for last year's UNC team. UNC's perimeter options on last season's team were concisely summed up by Deon Thompson, who said after the Heels' home win over Virginia Tech:

"He's our best shooter; everybody on this team knows that."

Thompson was talking about Will Graves. When you're UNC and you just rolled out Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson and Danny Green in the same lineup, that's a major problem.

And that's not a knock on Graves, he's a perfectly acceptable player, but he's not the caliber of talent UNC previously featured. And, really, he was the only player on the roster who could hit an outside shot.

UNC scored less than 65 points in six ACC games last season. With Barnes and Bullock, and, yes, Graves, that's not going to happen again.

• Motivation

I wrote this last summer and it was a huge part of what went wrong with UNC last year. Picked to finish first in the ACC, and in the top 10 nationally, that team had too many people telling them how good they were before they ever played a game.

Instead of being motivated by a perceived media snub, like the 2006 team was, UNC had nothing to rally against last season.

After a 5-11 season that ended in the NIT, there's plenty of motivation for this UNC team.

Williams handled just about every peripheral aspect of last season poorly, but he's well-versed in stoking the motivational flames, certainly one that has been dissed as many times as the returning UNC players

Minus

• Defense

Just adding Barnes and Bullock won't solve all of UNC's problems. They were a poor defensive team last season, and worse, sometimes indifferent (hello, 32-point loss at Duke).

"I’ve never coached effort," Williams memorably said last February. "I always coached execution. But with this group I’ve had to coach effort."

That comment was meant to be a compliment to his former players at Kansas and UNC, but it made Williams sound pretentious. You don't coach effort? That's the essence of your job.

Defense is all about effort. Save for shot-blocking, defense is not about talent rather desire and the willingness to work hard and communicate with your teammates.

UNC needs to take a major step up from the league-worst 71.9 points per game it allowed last season.

Sophomore John Henson playing in the correct forward position, and protecting the rim, should help the cause, but this team needs to improve its mindset without the basketball.

• Clarity at the point

Junior point guard Larry Drew II took a lot of heat for what went wrong last season, some of it justified. Drew's not Ty Lawson or Ray Felton, and he shouldn't try to play like those championship point guards.

Now Drew has company at the point in freshman Kendall Marshall. Will Drew keep his job? For how long? Is Marshall a dynamic alternative to Drew or is he cut from the same pass-first mold?

For an offense that is so dependent on its point guard, those are unsettling questions.

Bottom line

That was Roy Williams' first and last 5-11 season. You can book that. The was the definition of an aberration in a 21-year career that has been nothing short of excellent. That being said, the Final Four is not calling this team either.

The Heels will be better on offense, they have no other choice but to be better on defense and they will be sufficiently motivated. Still, there are issues at the point, forward depth and team leadership (it's tough for any freshman to lead, particularly one that plays off the ball).

The ceiling looks like 10-6, maybe 11-5, but the basement's not going lower than 8-8.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Barnes: "Barnes conducts himself like a guy gunning for two things: a national title and the eventual top pick. Both could happen if the string plays out long enough. His competitiveness and talent are second to none in the league. Look out, ACC."

Marshall: "The future maestro of the attack. He's the guy who doesn't hunt his offense and knows what to do with his weapons."

Bullock: "He'll provide wing scoring pop right from the start. He needs to stay aggressive and if they coax him to take more shots, his production will be strong as a freshman. Unselfish and talented, when the game is on the line he steps up. "

2009-10 record: 20-13 overall, 4-12 ACC (12th)

Postseason: None

Projected starting lineup: G Durand Scott, G Garrius Adams, F DeQuan Jones, F Julian Gamble, F Reggie Johnson

Plus

• Pieces that fit together

Durand Scott, as he showed by scoring 29 points against UNC and 21 against Duke in the final month, is going to be a star in this league. He's a big guard who can create his own shot and get to the foul line.

Miami coach Frank Haith ran a lot of high, ball screens for Scott at the ACC tournament and basically gave him the freedom to run a freelance offense.

The reason Miami was successful in the ACC tournament, though, beating Wake Forest and Virginia Tech before pushing Duke in a three-point loss in the semifinals, is because other players learned how to fill in the roles around Scott.

Reggie Johnson, at 6-10 and 295 pounds, was born to set screens and rebound. He did both with consistency, which was a revelation compared to the enigmatic Dwayne Collins, who is more talented but also prone to disappear.

In Johnson and Julian Gamble the Canes have a pair of "WYSIWYG" forwards to complement Scott.

Junior wing DeQuan Jones also had a coming-out party at the ACC tournament, with a pair of 14-point games and using his athleticism to get to the basket and score easy points in transition. His maturation will be the determining factor in how far this Miami team goes.

• Senior guard Adrian Thomas, who led the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage, got an extra season of eligibility from the NCAA. He did so because of injury issues earlier in his career, but when it comes to the NCAA's Forrest Gump-injury policies, it's a bonus that Thomas was given another season.

Minus

• ACC schedule

The Canes have four games against Duke and Florida State, which could be four losses, and another four with Clemson and Georgia Tech, which have a 2-2 split written all over them.

That doesn't leave much wiggle room, although, with the right wins, the Canes could pull a "Georgia Tech" (the opposite of a Virginia Tech) and parlay a 7-9 ACC record into an NCAA bid.

• Summer break

One of the big mistakes we (the media) make in preseason predictions, in any sport, is thinking that the way a team ends a season is how they'll begin the next season, like nothing happens in between.

Miami played well in the final two weeks, for the most part, because it had been humbled by such a bad ACC showing (4-12 and last place, as correctly predicted only here).

Truth is, especially in college, a lot can happen in the offseason. Maybe Miami will miss James Dews and Collins? I don't know, maybe they were a good influence in the locker room. Every season is different, even if most of the parts are the same.

Bottom line

Miami has talent, and more than just Scott, but the question is how focused and cohesive will this group be?

Scott will provide leadership, and will get a boost in the backcourt by freshman Rion Brown, but it's up to Jones, Thomas and Malcolm Grant to provide consistent support.

For a team that won four ACC games last year, a 7-9 season would be a good sign of progress and enough to keep the likable, yet flawed, Haith employed for another year.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Brown: "Brown's the headliner who is fresh off a big season. He an athlete with a jumper and propensity to score. Sounds like a big-time Miami contributor to us."

Swoope: "Is this Frank Haith's second coming of P.J. Tucker or Adrian Thomas? Time will tell but he drew positive reviews for his toughness, especially in the lane."

2009-10 record: 21-11 overall, 9-7 ACC (sixth)

Postseason: NCAA Tournament (0-1, lost to Missouri)

Projected starting lineup: G Demontez Stitt, G Tanner Smith, F Milton Jennings, F Devin Booker, F Jerai Grant

Plus

• New perspective

Oliver Purnell was content to go into the 2010-11 season with basically the same roster that won 21 games and made a third straight NCAA trip. Oh yeah, with the exception of Trevor Booker, the team's best player who was taken in the first round of the NBA draft.

Then Purnell left for DePaul and his lone recruit, forward Marcus Thornton, opted to jump to Georgia. Point is, Clemson would have been stagnant this season without the coaching switch.

Of the three hires in the ACC this offseason, Brad Brownell is the youngest (41) and the one that will work out best in the short term. Brownell has already taken two different teams (UNC-Wilmington and Wright State) to the NCAA tournament and has a chance to take a third this season.

• Defensive credentials

Guard Andre Young (54 steals) and forward Jerai Grant (54 blocks) are two of the best defenders in the ACC. Demontez Stitt and Tanner Smith both understand the concept of team defense, although Brownell's will surely differ from Purnell's full-court schemes.

Not all players fit every offensive system but defense is defense and Clemson has the parts to win games with its defense.

Minus

• Outside shooting

Clemson had a glaring need for outside shooters last season, after the losses of Terrence Oglesby and K.C. Rivers from the 2008-09 team, and still does.

Sophomore Noel Johnson owns the best shooting stroke of the group but is inconsistent and was too one-dimensional to get more minutes.

Guards Smith and Stitt are also capable of hitting from the 3-point line but it's not their bread-and-butter. Young led the teams with 60 3s but one consistent shooter wasn't enough last season and it won't be this season.

• One less Booker

Brownell gets a Clemson roster with one Booker, sophomore forward, Devin, but not two. Trevor Booker led the Tigers in scoring (15.2) and rebounding (8.4), while adding 2.5 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.3 steals per game.

There's no one player on the roster who can pick up his production, not to mention his toughness and leadership.

Bottom line

Purnell won 25, 24, 23 and 21 games in his final four seasons with three trips to the NCAA tournament. Relative to other Clemson basketball coaches, he's a genius.

But an 0-3 record in the NCAA tournament will also be on his epitaph along with "he once started a season 17-0 and missed the NCAA tournament."

Purnell clearly prefers the chase (building a program), to the happily-ever-after (making a program great). He left the Tigers in good enough shape, though, for Brownell, who'll be expected to win 20 games and extend the NCAA streak to four.

An 8-8 record probably hits both marks.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Stanton: "The level is going to be an adjustment for him. The system will help him out but he's going to need to scrap and fight for everything. He's a strong kid who will go to the hole and make good decisions, so he's got that going for him.""

2009-10 record: 23-13 overall, 7-9 ACC (seventh)

Postseason: NCAA Tournament (1-1, lost to Ohio State)

Projected starting lineup: G Moe Miller, G Iman Shumpert, G Brian Oliver, F Glen Rice Jr., F Kammeon Holsey

Plus

• Pain in the ...

With a four-guard lineup, Georgia Tech's going to be the most annoying team in the ACC. The Jackets are going to present matchup problems, pressure the ball, hand check, knock off screeners and play as physical as any team in the league.

No one will want to play this group of gnats.

Yet, there's still talent on the roster despite the departures of Derrick Favors, Gani Lawal and Zach Peacock. Junior guard Iman Shumpert is the best of the veteran group but he's not always engaged. You figure he should be more focused considering this is his team and his ticket to the NBA.

Brian Oliver, Glen Rice and Moe Miller are all functional players, although Rice needs to work on his on-court demeanor. The sophomore guard's body language is off-the-charts irritating (although that's not necessarily a bad thing).

• ACC schedule

A year after playing the toughest schedule, GT gets one of the easiest with Wake and Virginia twice and Duke and UNC only once (with the UNC game in Atlanta).
 

Minus

• Where's the size?

A year after being the ACC's biggest team, the Jackets have turned into the smallest.

You can imagine coach Paul Hewitt weeping when Justin Knox chose to transfer to UNC over GT. At least UNC has Tyler Zeller and John Henson. GT, after losing Lawal and Favors early to the NBA, has nothing, at least in terms of experienced big men.

Kammeon Holsey, a top 80 recruit from the class of 2009, is the most talented forward but he hasn't played a game of college basketball after sitting out last season with a serious knee injury.

Daniel Miller also redshirted last season but that was by design.

That leaves Brad Sheehan, who may or may not decide to stay with the program for a fifth season. Given his career output, 1.6 points per game, it's telling that Hewitt cannot afford to lose Sheehan, who has already graduated and might choose to end his career.

And that's it at forward, unless you want to label Rice and/or freshman Jason Morris one but really, you're just talking about a wing playing the "four" because there are no other options.

Bottom line

Only Hewitt could find a way to win seven ACC games with a pair of studs like Favors and Lawal. Without those two, it stands to reason the Jackets will freefall back to the 2-14 days of 2009.

The problem with that logic is the schedule is too loose and their guards are too good. College ball will always be about guard play and there are enough parts, and enough breaks on the schedule, to float to 6-10.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Morris: "He would have fit in on the Final Four team Hewitt fielded a few years ago. He's a mega-leaper with major rise. His jumper is inconsistent but the athleticism is elite."