Summer Hoops Preview '11: Part I

Part I: Duke, FSU, VT, Md
Part II: UNC, Clemson, GT, Miami
Part III: State, UVa, BC, Wake

2009-10 record: 35-5 overall, 13-3 ACC (first)

Postseason: NCAA Tournament (6-0, national champions)

Projected starting lineup: G Kyrie Irving, G Nolan Smith, G Seth Curry, F Kyle Singler, F Mason Plumlee

Plus

• More scoring options

Duke won a national title with three consistent, viable scoring options. This team returns two of those parts, in seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, and adds two more in freshman point guard Kyrie Irving and sophomore transfer Seth Curry.

Plus, sophomore forward Mason Plumlee, who missed the preseason and six games with a wrist injury last year, is healthy. The younger Plumlee has NBA tools and the potential to provide consistent interior scoring, which Duke has lacked for the better part of the last five years.

While departed guard Jon Scheyer was tremendous, particularly his decision-making, Irving is a more dynamic point guard. Add Curry, a shooter's shooter, to that mix, and Duke's got more octane in its offense.

The last four Duke teams have labored, particularly late in the season, to score points. They wanted to grind out wins in the 60s. This Duke team will be more like the 2001 and 2002 versions, which routinely cranked the tempo into the 90s and 100s.

• Experience

Talent goes far (see Kentucky), but only so far (see Kentucky). You want talent that has played together and has a shared experience.

I picked Duke last summer (when other people were picking UNC) because the familiarity Singler, Smith and Scheyer had with each other. UNC had more talent on paper, but the Tar Heels had never fought together. This Duke group has undergone a transformation from an also-ran to UNC to national champions.

Duke's got a real team, not just a collection of talent. True, there are valuable parts missing from last year's team but the experience of Singler and Smith together — with the Plumlees — is invaluable.

Minus

• Dirty work

Duke was built like a good hockey team last year with top-line scorers and third-line plumbers. Forwards Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek not only understood their role as rebounders, defenders and screeners, but embraced that role.

Mike Krzyzewski will be pliable with his personnel, and won't attempt to plug different parts into the same template, but the selfless element that Thomas and Zoubek contributed to the Big Three will still need to be present.

Junior forward Miles Plumlee has hard-hat credentials, as does freshman forward Josh Hairston, who is cut from the Lance Thomas mold, but will they be as effective as Thomas and Zoubek?

• Hunter > hunted

There was no shortage of motivation for last year's Duke team. It was easy to get lost in all the UNC hype, and no doubt Krzyzewski played that to the tilt, but the "No respect" card is gone, that's what happens to national champions.

Their motivation — and let's face it, Krzyzewski's is the master of this — will have to come in the form of a pursuit of history. That can be complicated carrot to dangle in front of team that has every right to be satiated.

As Urban Meyer learned at Florida last college football season, keeping a champion motivated isn't easy, no matter how talented.

Bottom line

This Duke team has the talent, experience and right-place, right-time alignment to match the 1999 team's 19-0 ACC exacto.

At some point, Scheyer's poise and late-game, shot-making will be missed but the down moments will be few and far between for this team.

Singler and Smith will take so much pressure off of Irving and Curry that those two young players will have the luxury of merely playing their games. And they both have the opportunity to be exceptional.

And this team will have more flexibility, in terms of going big or small, and finding a mismatch for Singler, instead of leaving him in one spot.

The trips to Virginia Tech and Florida State could be dicey, but either way, 14-2 looks like the worst-case scenario.

Anything less than a return to Houston, where Duke won the South Regional last year, for the Final Four would have to be considered a disappointment.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Irving: "He's a game-changer and at Duke that means you alter the national landscape. He has improved every facet of his game and he'll be tough off the bounce, ready to lead and his talent doesn't come around often."

Hairston: "His game took a step up last season as he polished up his perimeter play to mid-range. Think Lance Thomas with more offense."

Thornton: "He could have wavered once they got Irving but he never did and that speaks to his character and team play. He's a defensive specialist, four-year player and a coach on the floor."

2009-10 record: 25-9 overall, 10-6 ACC (fourth)

Postseason: NIT (2-1, lost to Rhode Island)

Projected starting lineup: G Malcolm Delaney (left), G Dorenzo Hudson, F Terrell Bell, F Jeff Allen, F Cadarian Raines

Plus

• Top-end talent

In guard Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech has the top scorer (20.2 points per game) in the ACC and one of its best 3-point shooters.

In forward Jeff Allen, the Hokies' have one of the best defenders (one of two returning players to rank in the top 10 in both steals and blocks) in the ACC and one of the most active post players.

In guard Dorenzo Hudson, the Hokies have one of the top role scorers (15.2 ppg) in the ACC. Hudson has great size for an off guard who can handle the ball and he's capable of carrying the offense if Delaney or Allen's not on their game — as he showed in a 41-point outburst against Seton Hall.

• Experience

Like Duke, VT has both talent and experience. The starting lineup, which returns in tact — although, Victor Davila could be replaced at forward by either Cadarian Raines or Allan Chaney (if he's healthy) — played together for 31 games last season.

Teams that have played together, particularly successful ones, have an advantage over teams that haven't. It's that simple.

• Toughness

The Hokies aren't the biggest team but they might be the most aggressive. There's a general toughness that permeates the program, which starts in the recruiting process.

That an All-ACC talent like Delaney is at Virginia Tech is certainly a testament to Seth Greenberg's recruiting acumen but it's also an indictment of the Washington-Baltimore area schools who overlooked him.

Virginia Tech's roster (save for Allen) is filled with players who were ignored elsewhere and are intent on proving their worth.

Minus

•  Momentum

Greenberg has out-kicked his coverage at Virginia Tech, where the facilities and remote location would be twin anchors for a lesser coach.

Greenberg has won average of 21 games and nine ACC games over the past four seasons but only has one NCAA tournament appearance to show for it.

At 10-6 in the ACC, there's certainly an argument to be made that VT belonged in the NCAA tournament last year, or for that matter in 2008 after going 9-7, but there's an inconsistency that's holding this program back.

The combination of myopic scheduling, poor out-of-conference results and the propensity to flop on an annual basis in the ACC tournament have all hurt Greenberg.

VT hasn't taken advantage of the limited chances, created by both weak nonconference scheduling and an easy ACC draw. This program should be coming off its fourth straight NCAA trip, instead it's searching for its first berth since 2007.

• Florida transfer Allan Chaney, who's expected to provide inside help for Jeff Allen, collapsed during an April workout and had to be hospitalized.

Dehydration was the cause of the scary episode but how that incident affects Chaney, both mentally and physcially, going forward is a wild card.

Bottom line

This team has the talent, experience, depth and motivation to prove it's better than every ACC team this side of Duke.

With an upgraded nonconference schedule (with high-profile games against Kansas State and Purdue) the list of excuses has been reduced.

Now it's on Greenberg to make sure the team starts *and* ends the season at a high level. Greenberg's the ACC's best coach in February but there's no trophy for that.

His 3-6 ACC tournament record is a blight on an otherwise outstanding resume at one of the toughest places to win in college basketball.

This season will go a long way in determining if Greenberg is merely going to be good at VT or something more.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Garland: "Exactly the kind of guy V-Tech wins with — moderately recruited at the highest level but definitely a high-major player, Garland will roll into Blacksburg with a chip on his shoulder the size the one Malcolm Delaney carried to stardom. Garland is tough, quick and plays with a Hokie-style edge."

Eddie: "Could be the replacement for Deron Washington, minus the elite bounce. Eddie's a solid athlete with a jump shot that is his calling card. He'll play as a freshman and start later in his career."

2009-10 record: 22-10 overall, 10-6 ACC (third)

Postseason: NCAA Tournament (0-1, lost to Gonzaga)

Projected starting lineup: G Derwin Kitchen, G Deividas Dulkys, G Michael Snaer, F Chris Singleton, F Xavier Gibson

Plus

• Defense

The Noles led the ACC in scoring defense (60.4 points per game), field-goal percentage defense (.377) and blocked shots (6.3 per game) last season.

Even with the loss of forward Solomon Alabi, the ACC's leading shot-blocker, FSU will still be one of the ACC's best defensive teams.

Coach Leonard Hamilton has led the Noles to consecutive 10-win ACC seasons and trips to NCAA tournament because of his ability to recruit top-end talent and teach those players how to defend.

Junior forward Chris Singleton, who led the ACC in steals (2.2 per game) and ranked fifth in blocks (1.5 per game), was the ACC's best defender last season and will be again this season.

Guard Derwin Kitchen and forward Xavier Gibson are also capable of being exceptional defenders but have to be more consistent.

• Guard play

Between Kitchen, Michael Snaer, Deividas Dulkys and freshman Ian Miller, the Noles have a variety of versatile backcourt options.

Kitchen, a senior, played better off the ball as a sophomore with Toney Douglas than he did last year as the primary ballhandler. He's too talented to average less than 10 points per game and maybe with the addition of Miller, a true point from Charlotte, he'll have the opportunity to score more.

Dulkys is the team's best 3-point shooter and had two of his best games in the final three of the season, including a team-best 14 in the NCAA tournament loss to Gonzaga.

Snaer's the best athlete of the group and has NBA size (6-5, 200) but also NBA shot selection. If the sophomore learns that his scholarship is not dependent on the number of shots-per-minute, he will be more popular with his teammates and a more productive player.

Minus

• Offense

There's no more frustrating exercise in the ACC than watching Florida State play basketball in person. The roster oozes with NBA talent (and still does without Douglas or Alabi) yet Hamilton insists on taking the air out of the ball and dragging every game down to the 50s and 60s.

Teams without talent, like in the Ivy League or service academies (or Tempe, Ariz.), want to limit possessions and shorten the game, not teams with a conspicuous talent like Chris Singleton, whose scoring average (10.2) would be double at say Kansas or Maryland.

Ken Pomeroy, the rockstar of basketball mathematicians, measures offensive and defensive efficiency. Not surprisingly, FSU ranks first in the country on defense but 130th on offense.

The number of teams from a major conference that ranked behind FSU in Pomeroy's metric? Six. The number of those teams that had a winning record? Zero.

The point is FSU has been a bad basketball team on offense. But here's the frustrating part, the quality of the parts is not commiserate with the level of production.

Which inevitably leads us to Minus No. 2 ...

• Coaching

Leonard Hamilton can recruit and coach defense and he is humble enough to get out of assistant Stan Jones' way and allow him to handle the Xs and Os during the game.

Hamilton took an FSU program, which will always been an afterthought to football, to the NCAA tournament (twice!) after a 10-year drought.

Those are his positives. The negatives are he just doesn't understand how to use the talent on his roster.

Mike Krzyzewski isn't a great coach because he has won four national titles (although obviously that helps), he's a great coach because he adjusts the way his teams play based on the available personnel.

The majority of coaches (in all sports, really, not just college basketball) are too dogmatic to divert from what they do because that's "what they do."

You can't always drive a Ferrari, but if you have one, you owe it yourself to drive it as often as possible.

With this FSU team, Hamilton has a chance to crank the gas. He can take the next step from "just happy to be in the NCAA tournament" to legitimate Final Four threat but he needs to give this team more freedom to, for the lack of a better term, just "out-athlete" everyone else.

Bottom line

With Alabi gone, Singleton needs to take ownership of this program the way NBAers Douglas and Al Thornton did before him.

Hamilton and Jones also need to put the spectacularly talented, yet inconsistent, Singleton, in a position to carry this team and fulfill his vast potential.

There's good backcourt depth and enough frontcourt options to win 12 ACC games. You get the sense, though, that Hamilton's going to take safe route and pull the Prius out for a 10-6 spin, while the Ferrari sits in the garage.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Miller: "This is the biggest steal for a team outside Tobacco Road. Hamilton waltzed into North Carolina and landed a potential All-ACC point guard. Miller's a stud, he can score and his point-guard play has improved with each season."

White: "Like Miller, he finished high school on a high note. This guy has bounce, skills in the lane and he should be college ready."

2009-10 record: 24-9 overall, 13-3 ACC (second)

Postseason: NCAA Tournament (1-1, lost to Michigan State)

Projected starting lineup: G Adrian Bowie, G Cliff Tucker, G Sean Mosley (right), F Dino Gregory, F Jordan Williams

Plus

• Gary Williams

If your own life depended on winning a basketball game and you only had two hours to put a team together and coach them up, Gary Williams should be your first phone call.

Mike Krzyzewski has a more complete resume and Roy Williams is a better recruiter, but as Gary Williams proved (again) last year with a 13-3 ACC record with an undermanned, overachieving lineup, he can out X-and-O anyone in the ACC.

One of the reasons Williams, who has won a school-record 442 games at Maryland, including 185 in the ACC, is he's not afraid to play at a fast pace.

It's Maryland that has been the hare under Williams while majority of the ACC — especially after Williams established the program among the ACC's best in the late 1990s — have willingly chosen the role of the tortoise.

In this case, slow and steady definitely does not win the race. Maryland led the ACC in scoring (79.7 points per game), field goal percentage (.471) plus turnover margin (plus-3.52), which suggests there's a method to the madness.

At this point in his career, entering his 22nd season at Maryland, Williams is just showing off. Thirteen ACC wins with a Venezuelan point guard, a bunch of 3-point shooters, an undersized forward and a freshman big man? No problem.

A return to the NCAA tournament after losing the guts of said ragtag group? Why not?

• Simplicity

Most coaches work better with fewer options. There are fewer egos to massage and fewer substitution mistakes to make when you have no choice but to play the same seven guys.

In losing three senior starters — Greivis Vasquez, Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes — the hierarchy of Maryland's program is fairly clear.

This offense starts with junior wing Sean Mosley and ends with sophomore forward Jordan Williams. Those are options "1" and "1A."

The other returning parts are filler with a six-man recruiting class that's sure to produce a star but also sure to lose a transfer sooner than later.

Players make the biggest advancement in their games between their sophomore and junior seasons and Mosley, who averaged 10.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game last season, is in line for major jump in production. (Take what I wrote last year about N.C. State's Tracy Smith and apply it to Mosley this year.)

Williams goes from a supporting part to the lead role in his second season. A true back-to-the-basket big man (and he's big at 6-10 and 260 pounds), he came on at the end of his freshman season, putting up 21 and 17 in the NCAA tournament win over Houston. Expect his numbers, 9.6 ppg and 8.6 rpg, to soar as more of the offense flows inside-out.
 

Minus

• Lost a lot of lumber

Vasquez led the Terps in scoring (19.6) and the ACC in assists (6.3) while also adding 4.6 boards and 1.7 steals per game. That's just his statistical impact. The ACC's player of the year was the heart-and-soul of the program for the past two years.

Hayes, a fine 3-point shooter who added 4.0 apg, and Milbourne (12.7 ppg), who played out of position for most of his career, were both good ACC players.

All three will be missed, Vasquez obviously the most, but that type of production and leadership will need to be offset somehow and it can't just come from Mosley and Jordan Williams.

• Schedule

The Terps have a potential "Virginia Tech" problem. With six games against Virginia, Boston College and Wake Forest, they could get halfway to 10 ACC wins without making much of an impression on the selection committee (see VT's padded 10-6 mark last season).

With a lot of filler, comes the reduced opportunities for resume-building wins. The Terps go to UNC, get FSU at home and have four games against Duke and VT. They're going to have to win three of those to offset the built-in inflation to their ACC schedule.

Bottom line

Maryland won't win 13 ACC games again but the Terps aren't going to fall of the map, either, even in a quasi-rebuilding season. The rest of the ACC (save for Duke, FSU and VT) is either bad, in transition or both and you know Gary Williams is worth an extra win or two.

Mosley and Jordan Williams must step up, and some combination of the freshmen (likely Mychal Parker, Terrell Stoglin and Pe'Shon Howard) need to make an impact, but another NCAA tournament trip and a 10-6 ACC record is there for the taking.

Recruiting analysis by Dave Telep, scout.com:

Parker: "The highest-rated guy has a big ceiling. He's a load off the bounce and in the lane where he finishes with flair."

Stoglin: "This is the one guy we may have underrated. What position is he? Who knows but he has swagger and he gets buckets. We may need a mulligan on this one."

Howard: "He's the guy who can pass with flair, wants to be good and has size for his position. If he takes good shots and cuts down on his turnovers, you'll see him on the floor early."

Palsson: "He hails from Montverde which cranks out college prospects. Think a JV version of FSU's Deividas Dulkys."

Photo credits: Getty Images (Duke, Virginia Tech), AP (FSU), Baltimore Sun (Maryland)