Staff photo by Robert Willett
UNC will be more experienced in Butch Davis' third season but will the Tar Heels be better in 2009?
The short answer is no.
Given Davis' track record, that's not the logical answer. After all, Davis flipped 4-8 into 8-5 in one season and 17 starters are expected to return. It's the one that won't that could leave UNC struggling to get back to a bowl next season.
Hakeem Nicks doesn't have the speed of a first-round pick, but the junior receiver has everything else, including a big future in the NFL.
Nicks wasn't UNC's entire offense this season — quarterback T.J. Yates, running backs Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston and three starting linemen all helped and will return in '09 — but he was close, certainly after Brandon Tate's injury and certainly in superhuman performances against West Virginia (217 yards, 3 TDs), Boston College (139 yards, 3 TDs) and Notre Dame (nine catches, 141 yards).
Personnel turnover is part of college football and Davis, from his experience at Miami, understands that better than anyone. Losing players early to the NFL is a reality for the game's best programs.
But to think there's another Nicks in the UNC pipeline (Dwight Jones, Greg Little?) is a pipe dream. That's like N.C. State saying in 2003, "We'll be fine without Philip Rivers."
Nicks accounted for 1,222 of UNC's 2,584 receiving yards (43 percent) in 2008 and 12 of the 21 TD receptions.
He's the only player in UNC history with more than 1,000 yards in a season.
Logically, UNC will become a running team in '09 but like Georgia Tech the year after Calvin Johnson left, the dynamic changes when defenses don't use an extra defensive back in pass coverage.
Even more troubling for UNC than Nicks' imminent departure is how the Heels' finished the '08 season.
Good teams, as a product of good coaching, get better as the season progresses. UNC did the opposite, starting 7-2 and closing 1-3.
That's not to say there wasn't a reason for the false finish, namely injuries, but Davis bungled the quarterback situation when Yates returned — paying for it with a 41-10 home loss to N.C. State — and the defense was reduced to rubble after shutting down Georgia Tech on Nov. 8.
Nine starters return on defense, including the entire line, but the wheel will have to be re-invented in spring practice.
The same deep routes N.C. State and Owen Spencer singed UNC's secondary with, cropped back up against West Virginia. That was not by accident, it's called scouting.
West Virginia quarterback Pat White played 47 college games before Saturday, in only five did he throw for more than 200 yards, and not one more than 222 yards.
He scorched UNC's defense — which was already playing a nickel for most of the game because of the injury to linebacker Mark Paschal — for 332 yards.
To be sure, everyone on the '09 schedule will dissect the same tapes.
You can mark down home games with Duke, Virginia, The Citadel and a yet-to-be named I-AA team as wins but the other eight games (FSU and ECU at home with GT, VT, N.C. State, Boston College and UConn on the road) are a coin toss.
If Davis fixes the defense and pushes all the right buttons on offense, UNC will win eight games again but a step back to 6-6 is more of a reality.







Comments
Carolina, Davis, Yates & the future
Fri, 01/09/2009 - 12:36 — eskinn44_40UNC lacks what it has lacked since they began playing football in Chapel Hill, save for the five years they had Ronald Curry (who the various coaching staffs completely mishandled) on the roster: a big-time quarterback. Until Davis brings in a game-changer at the position - as opposed to the mediocre game "managers" currently on the roster - UNC will not consistently compete for anything of importance. It is the nature of the college game - unlike the NFL - that your QB needs to be able to put the team on his back and win games with charisma, athleticism and will. Look at the this year's top teams and you will see a slew of QB's that put their teams in a position to play in meaningful post-season games: Colt McCoy, Graham Harrell, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow & Sam Bradford. Alabama was probably the exception, but their 5th-year senior QB simply couldn't match Tebow's heroics when his team needed it most, leaving the Crimson Tide out of the National Title picture. No one on the current UNC roster appears to have what it takes to one day be mentioned in the same breath as the QB's listed above. As a result, UNC can hope for 8, 9 and maybe the occasional 10-win seasons under Davis, who seems to be putting all the other pieces in place. Carolina, however, will never dominate the ACC - much less become a major player on the national scene - without a big-time QB leading the way.
read my name
Wed, 12/31/2008 - 15:08 — UVAOwnsUNCI wouldn't be so quick to lump UVa in the easy W column just yet....UVa has dominated, let me repeat, dominated the series in the last 25 years (18-6-1).
One more point on "stirring the pot"
Wed, 12/31/2008 - 13:39 — twhittentonHere are Mr. Giglio's own words:
"You can mark down home games with Duke, Virginia, The Citadel and a yet-to-be named I-AA team as wins but the other eight games ... are a coin toss."
So, assuming for a moment that his assessment of these games is accurate, that would mean his 6-6 prediction would require Carolina to go 2-6 in those "coin toss" games. If I didn't know better, I'd say that sounds like he's being overly negative to generate hits and comments.
Yates is and will always be the problem
Tue, 12/30/2008 - 13:05 — cardreaderYates has not won a big game since he has started at UNC. He will never take UNC where it wants to go. Butch & Co have missed on player after player since they have been there. And Yates is the biggest mistake. Sexton had to come off the scout team to took UNC thru the teeth of their schedule only to be benched for Butch's boy. When Yates faced touch comp in NC State and W VA.......well you know what happened. If not for Nicks in the W VA game, it would have been a INT laidened rout.
Let the coaches share the blame
Tue, 12/30/2008 - 12:54 — tony_kPeople are a little to quick to throw players under the bus. Mark Paschal isn't an excuse for anything as he got hurt at the end of the season. Tate was a huge lost but he isn't the reason our "D" looked so inept. JP was on the money with the QB situation.Our loses stemmed from bad coaching. The genius that thought rushing 3 men was a good idea. That incredible scheme gave us 2 lucky wins at the end of the games we were dominating for the most part (UM and ND). Maryland and UVa just LOVED IT. WVU LOVED IT so much that they gave BD a bonus for using it, I think they put his name somewhere on the trophy. For all the NFL experience we have on the sidelines, I have yet to see a bump and run by our corners on the blitz. If you drop 8 guys and still can't cover, WHY KEEP DOING? They all claim NFL experience, play bump and run with the corners, let our safeties play over the top and patrol the middle, drop one (or 2) of the extremely athletic LBs and bring the other one (or 2) on the blitz and put some pressure on the QB so he have to make quicker decisions. No you don't do this every play but you don't rush 3 and just let the QB sit in the pocket for a hour until someone down field finally get beat on a route. This team only plays with a sense of purpose when it is behind. The minute we get up on a time, we start playing like very timid and conservative football and that is on the coaches.
No spped and no depth
Tue, 12/30/2008 - 13:39 — festerYou will not see man cover and bump and run until the Heels get the speed and depth needed to play that style defense. I am not a fan of the zone and prevent defenses we saw thru 90% of UNC's games this season and especially late in the game. But it's going to get better fast. Butch took a team that was winning 3-4 games a year thru most of the decade and saw 1 bowl game in 7 years. You just don't turn that around in 1 season. Butch has had 1 true recruiting class and is about to bring in his second. Let's let him get his players and speed on the field before we call them out. As mentioned, the Heels have some big names and future NFL players on the roster but too few of them at the moment they are very young. I often wondered about some of the play calling this season but Butch did a fabulous job of using his stregths and and hiding weaknesses. Much of what frustrated us fans on gameday was just reality at the end of the day. The Heels overachieved this season. Most picked them to win 6-7 games pre season, they won 8.
UNC in 2009
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 21:12 — rbl1944Injuries were primarily responsible for the decline at season's end. The injury to Brandon Tate cost us 200 yards a game, and the late season loss of Mark Paschal took away one of our top defenders. We just didn't have enough horsepower to overcome these and other injuries along the way, although Cam Sexton filled in admirably for Yates.
I consider the season a success, and was delighted with the spirit of the home crowd this past year. I can't address the bowl game, as I was home in Ohio watching it on TV and don't have a feel for the fans' cheering.
The Fans
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 20:24 — joeThe heels fans at home were great this year. Other than the second half of the NC state game, the home fans were much more intense this year (especially the late start home games). The problem is the price of the tickets made it hard for younger louder UNC fans to attend the bowl game and the Wine and cheese Heels fans were the majority. I will say watching on TV it was obvious UNC had the advantage in the fans both in color of the stands and noise. I don't know how it was in the section AshevilleHeel was in but seemed like the Heels fans were louder overall thru the audio feed. I doubt Butch or the players would blame the fans for the loss on saturday or any other day. UNC had great attendance this year and has great traveling fans as well.
how 'bout the fans???
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 17:49 — heelfaninashevilleIt would be nice to see the wine and cheese fans that come out and support the Heels get out of their seats and make some noise for a change. I've been going to UNC football games for 20 years and I have to tell you I was embarrassed this past Saturday in Charlotte- but not by the football team.
I had a wonderful time and enjoyed a great game but while I witnessed a very supportive and loud group in the West Virginia fans the the Heel fans that sat in our section rarely got off their butts.
That's not how you support a football team. Even before the game, WVU fans were geared up, loud, in unison, all we heard tailgating was "Let's Go....MOUNTAINEERS..."
Folks in light blue sipped their toddies and kept their heads down. During the game WVU fans chanted in unison after every first down- first down, W - V- U! They represented, that's for sure.
I'm just saying.
If you were there you saw it too. Us fans need to man up and support the boys on the field.
Deadicated, but frustrated---
amen man. UNC needs to
Tue, 12/30/2008 - 19:40 — JPMajoramen man.
UNC needs to start a 12th man program or somthing.. it's really frustrating..
When need the basketball atmosphere in football also
If JP Talked About
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 17:25 — festerThe heels REAL problems like Offesnive line and Defensive depth and speed instead of skill positions I would listen and probably agree. The fact is JP didn't mention any of the Tar Heels actual problems. For what it's worth, the Heels season was better than 90% of the Fans, media and others felt they would. I thought they would win 7 games total this year with a bowl win, so the fact they won 8 games without a bowl win speaks volumes. The Heels are right on schedule for next year where they will do about the same as this year give or take a win. The offensive line is 2-3 years away from being legit as is the defense. there is 0 depth on either side of the ball on the O-line and D-line. the D line was filled with Sophs and a True-Freshman. butch has needs coming in all areas of the team but the overall talent of the team will increase across the board proving JP is a Homer wolfpack fan trying to stir the pot.
As a matter of fact
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 20:33 — jpg (author)I mentioned the offensive line (as a strength) and defensive line (as a strength).
The crux of my argument is Nicks is a once-in-a-generation talent. He will be missed.
And the defense, while strong at the start, was picked apart at the end. That's a bad sign, one of other teams adjusting to what you're doing and you not adjusting back.
These are called points in an argument, not "pot stirring."
— JPG
As a matter of fact
Tue, 12/30/2008 - 13:33 — cardreaderThe crux of my argument
It should be Yates; I don't know why this QB is always getting a pass from the TH nation.
The fact is
Tue, 12/30/2008 - 10:40 — festerUNC will return 60 players next season, 17 starters and have the #6 recruiting class in the nation and many are forecasting another top 10 recruiting class in 2010. The fact that you said the O-line will be or was a strength shows you aren't paying close enough attention. The O-line had it's moments this year but was slow and lacked any help off the bench. Some injuries in the season plagued an already thin depth chart. There is no reason there can't be an improvement with added depth and speed on the O-line next season.
UNC lost 4 games late in the 4th quarter, many of which the Heels held a late lead. As mentioned Depth, youth and overall team speed was UNC's problem this season and it showed late in games, which was more of a problem for the coaching staff then as you say (other teams figuring out what the heels were doing). The starting defensive line and Linebackers are fantastic, some of the best in the league but they had zero depth to back them up and as the season progressed the team wore out. UNC will be just fine and I expect them to be overall improved. Hakeem is without a doubt a huge loss but UNC is not going to take a step back.
I also like UNC's top 10
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 16:54 — NewEnglandHeelI also like UNC's top 10 recruiting class coming in. Looks like a top 6 or 7 class is brewing for the class of 2010 as well! The Heels will be just fine!
I am looking forward to JP
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 16:57 — NewEnglandHeelI am looking forward to JP telling us with his "crystal ball" how the Woof pups will do in 2009. That will be interesting to read....
For the record
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 20:27 — jpg (author)Called 8-4 for the Heels in 2008, so maybe I know what I'm talking about. We'll see.
— JPG
The record huh?
Wed, 12/31/2008 - 13:29 — twhittentonNice selective memory there, JP. You've made more bad predictions than any of us could count, starting with ranking a Big East team #1 for a few years there just because they had a weak schedule. But I guess because you can point out one thing you got right you're an expert now.
I think you do a reasonably good job of pointing out strengths and weaknesses, but predicting 6-6 really is "stirring the pot." I don't think you'll find too many other "objective" observers who even come close to agreeing with you.
Nicks is a great player, but "once in a generation," while actually conservative based on UNC football history, is probably not accurate based on Butch Davis' record. WR is one of the easier positions for young players to step right in and star, and there's plenty of talent there both on the current roster and in UNC's recruiting class.
They won't have one WR as good as Nicks, but they'll have a good group. Combine that with likely improved play at nearly every other position group (OL might tread water) and you can see why everyone else sees Carolina as a team on the rise, not on the decline.
What a poor excuse for a
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 16:49 — NewEnglandHeelWhat a poor excuse for a sports writer "JP" to stir up the pot so to speak. There is no reason to think that the Heels won't be equally as good next year. In the Coastal division, they should be better than Miami (H), Virginia (H), and Dook (H). VT (A) and GT (A) could arguably be better than the Heels especially on the road. Against the Atlantic division, the Heels should be better than NC State College (A), and BC (A), but will have a tough game against FSU (H). The Heels should win Non Conference games against the Citadel (H), East Carolina College (H), and Connecticut (A). A 4th non conference game will be scheduled which will probably be a "gimme" home win. With all of that said, the heels should finish the regular season with a 9-3 season. Hopefully, a few losses by other Conference teams will advance UNC to a first ever ACC conference championship game.
Go Heels!!!
Sarcasm alert
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 18:26 — mikbarrettWell said, New England (A$$) Heel.
God forbid a newspaper columnist should "stir up the pot" and talk about North Carolina College's outlook on football field next year, especially if it contends that the team will do anything less than go undefeated or win an ACC title. How unthinkable, given Butchy's godlike presence and 0-3 record against State and ECU, that his pre-pubescent little light-blue boys will not complete their program's inevitable conversion to something similar to Florida, LSU or USC in more than another year.
Go Heels! ... back to the Meineke Car Care Bowl, where you'll lose to Connecticut.
Brilliant!
Fri, 01/02/2009 - 16:53 — tjfooseCouldn't have said it better. That's a helluva lot of assumptions to be making about a team that struggled against McNeese State and couldn't beat a pitiful Virginia squad, not to mention your aforementioned reference to 0-3 vs State and ECU... ingnorance is bliss, I guess.
ESPN mentions BD as Dallas replacement?
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 14:47 — googleIf Dallas is BD's dream job, the stars look to be aligned for this move. It could be very appealing to BD with the new one billion dollar Cowboys Stadium and another hefty pay raise.
Dallas doesn't have a job opening.
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 15:03 — UNC1998Jones has said all coaches will return next year. That was on Sunday night. I think any contrary reports are speculation at this point. I do think that is one of the jobs Davis would leave for, though. Then again, he has said he likes it in North Carolina.
1-3 finish
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 14:20 — gvillegatrwas attributed to the QB position. Cam is the guy who hit the wall and it forced Butch's hand to out Yates in when it was obvious he was not ready to come back. If this does not hapen again, UNC will win at least 8 games next season. it will be OK.
Just as this season had some new players step up...
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 13:24 — UNC1998Next year will, too. Right now UNC's recruiting class is rated as top 10. No doubt, some of those players will play. While what's written above is plausible, it isn't a certainty. As an aside, I'm interested to see what Womble can do at RB. Also, 2nd string qb may be a question. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.