Regional rank: 2 (second-toughest)
Going sweet: UNC (1), Gonzaga (4), Arizona State (6), Oklahoma (2)
Dark horse: LSU (8).
No respect for the SEC regular-season champs, because they stumbled at the finish, losing three of four, but the Tigers have two veteran scorers in Marcus Thornton (20.7) and Tas Mitchell (16.3) and a savvy coach.
Don't touch: Butler (9) or Western Kentucky (12).
Both mid-majors have had recent tournament success but with different coaches and much more experienced teams.
If this was Herb Sendek at N.C. State against John Cheney's Temple, Sendek would be radioactive because he couldn't beat Temple (and its matchup zone) to save his life with the Wolfpack, but these are different circumstances.
Five-star players: G James Harden, Arizona State; F Blake Griffin, Oklahoma; F Tyler Hansbrough, UNC; G Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga; G Johnny Flynn, Syracuse
Did you know?: Roy Williams has never lost a first-round game (19-0) but has lost more games in the second round (seven: five at Kansas, two at UNC) than any other.
Underrated coach: Trent Johnson, LSU.
Took Nevada to the Sweet 16 in 2004 and Stanford in 2008.
Overrated coach: Herb Sendek, Arizona State.
Somehow a coach who has never been beyond the Sweet 16 is considered a genius by the national media.
Sendek's 5-5 NCAA record at N.C. State perfectly matches his overall coaching ability. Herb's good, especially when given time to prepare (hence the 4-1 record in the first round) but he struggles when he has to deviate from the plan either within a game (pick a second-half collapse from his Wolfpack tenure or the Sun Devils' last game — they frittered away a double-digit lead in the Pac-10 title game) or a weekend (1-3 in the second round).
The Pick: There's something askew with the Heels' mojo. They started the season without Tyler Hansbrough (injured shin) and finished it without Ty Lawson (injured toe) but location matters as does the draw. The Heels won't lose in Greensboro and the potential matchups in Memphis (against teams willing to run with them) are in their favor.
Danny Green has to shoot better than he did in Atlanta, though, or LSU will hand Ol' Roy his eighth second-round loss.
Comments
My South Picks
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 20:45 — jeromfitzare UNC, Illinois, Syracuse, and Clemson. UNC have get past the first game and if they face a team like LSU it will be a tight game but LSU(not seed properly for SEC Conference Division Champs) can be stiff competition. I know UNC can bring it with Lawson available if not it's going to hard work. Illinois is got good athletes that breakout sometimes to dominate an opponent with speed and quickness. Clemson can be anybody and have the overall talent( dangerous 3pt shooters) to do so. Syracuse is the hardest after UNC with their OT abilities to comeback to make it close from 20 points or more down.
Sendek
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 15:59 — chuckde424Sendek was a genius to have been able to take NCSU to the dance reliably. Now he has his new program there??? He's never had sweet 16+ talent. So it is no knock on him that he hasn't progressed furhter. Had he stayed at NCSU and been allowed to continue to develop the program, while consistently loosing to UNC, State might have gotten further than the 16, but ASU is not likely to make the mistake that State did. Now I like the big Red Coat and think he should be given a chance for a few more years, whetether or not he beats UNC. (No NIT is tough ... daayum ... no post season at all ... go state ... NOT ... TEE HEE)
Wrong
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 16:24 — jpg (author)>>He's never had sweet 16+ talent.
Wrong had talented teams (with an All-ACC guard and the ACC Player of the Year) in 2003, 2004, 2005 and in 2006 had a senior, experienced team (with a first-round pick) that rolled BC in January and then collapsed.
Also, Sendek recruited four-year players in an era of high school players either never getting to college or staying two years at max. His veteran teams, in 2005 and 2006, should have gone further in the tournament. He blew a double-digit second-half lead against Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.
>>Had he stayed at NCSU and been allowed to
continue to develop the program, while consistently loosing to UNC,
State might have gotten further than the 16
Maybe but the failure of 2006 — when UNC completely restocked their roster and Sendek had a veteran, tournament-tested team built specifically to take advantage of the talent void in the ACC that season — was just too huge to ignore 10 years into Sendek's tenure.
Sorry, you can't get away with revisionist Herb history on this site.
— JPG
More evidence
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 16:57 — JPDOhioMy son was living in Orlando in 2004, when State was placed there for the first and second rounds. They are playing Vanderbilt in the second round and are up by double-digits (I think) with only a few minutes to go. A guy in the seat in front of him turns around as says, "You have to be feeling pretty good right now". Jeff replies, "Not really."
Of course, Vanderbilt comes back to win the game. I still have a laminated photo in my office from Sports Illustrated that shows Matt Freije going up for a shot over Evtimov and Levi Watkins in that game. Painful as it is, I keep it because I can see my son in the crowd behind the action.
Anyway, keep fighting the revisionist history battles, JP. I suspect, however, it would be a full-time job in and of itself.
Lawson is not a five star player
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 15:55 — chuckde424You left the ACC player of the year off the list?? WTF
Well
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 16:14 — jpg (author)If he's healthy and actually plays, then I am in full agreement.
— JPG
Tar Heels' Chances
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 15:47 — heelsno1Thanks for the blinding glimpse of the obvious. You mentioned that Danny Green must shoot better than he did in the ACC Tournament. Yes, and Ty Lawson's big toe must recover. Please, give us a break from these types of insights.
Over the course of the regular season, Green has been as reliable as Ellington (often more so) with field goal accuracy. Plus, Danny plays tough D, gets steals and chases down a lot of loose balls. If Lawson returns as healthy as ever, Green may not need to shoot that much given that Ty Lawson is leading the ACC in shooting percentage behind the arc.
If 'ol Roy can remember to use his timeouts, I like the Heels chances to make a deep run and perhaps cut down the nets in Detroit.
Timeouts
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 16:16 — jpg (author)I forgot, if Roy had just called timeout, UNC would have beaten Kansas and then killed Memphis.
UNC lost last year because Danny Green and Wayne Ellington shot poorly in the last game. Ellington shot well during the ACC Tournament. Green did not.
But if it makes you feel better to blame Roy, by all means, knock yourself out.
— JPG
Timeouts
Wed, 03/18/2009 - 09:56 — heelsno1My comment is not about a blame game toward Roy, nor does any Tar Heel want to re-live the first half of last year's Kansas fiasco when our team and coaching staff performed poorly. Give Kansas all of the credit since they won it all, and took UNC out in the process.
No, my comment was about your article which in my opinion was about as shallow as the Yadkin River during an exteme drought. Rarely does any team win 6 consecutive games against quality opponents without having decent shooting performances from its starters.
LSU's coach has been there..
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 14:14 — UNC1998he'll get them past the first round, and no further. UNC really should have no problem until Oklahoma. OU can not outrun the Heels, so good bye Sooners.
LSU
Tue, 03/17/2009 - 14:06 — gvillegatrprolly wont win their first round game!
and all coaches (and teams) will lose a big lead from time to time. if you ahve been around as long as Herb, you will see more of those games. no one is immune.