Regional analysis: Midwest

Regional rank: 3 (second easiest)

Going sweet: Michigan State (2), Wake Forest (4), Ohio State (8), Dayton (11)

Dark horse: Ohio State (8)

Thad Matta has a history of making moves in this tournament with good guards — Butler in 2001, Xavier in 2004, Ohio State in 2007 — and he's got a good one in Evan Turner (17.1 ppg) and a good shooter in Jon Diebler.

The Buckeyes caught the biggest break in the tournament by getting placed 70 miles down the road in Dayton. Why on Earth would the committee give a No. 8 seed such an advantage?

Louisville coach Rick Pitino, who had to play UNC in Charlotte last year (at least UNC was a No. 1 seed), can't be pleased with this development.

Don't touch: Kansas (3)

As UNC proved in 2006, you can reload after a national title, even make hay in your conference, but the NCAA Tournament is a different stage.

And this new Kansas group just doesn't have the same talent level from last year or the same urgency. Throw in a tough draw (North Dakota State) on a neutral site (Minneapolis) and Gus Johnson assigned to the game by CBS and you have Princeton-UCLA 1996 all over again.

Five-star players: G Tyrese Rice, Boston College; G Jeff Teague, Wake Forest; F Jordan Hill, Arizona; F Earl Clark, Louisville

Did you know?: Arizona has made the tournament 25 straight years, two short of UNC's record 27 (1975-2001)

Underrated coach: Al Skinner, Boston College

Few coaches get more out of their talent, have a better eye for talent or develop their players as well as Skinner.

Overrated coach: Bob Huggins, West Virginia

Took Cincinnati to the Final Four in 1992, has underachieved in the tournament with just about every team since, except last year's West Virginia team (Sweet 16).

The Pick: Louisville never played at UConn or Pitt during the regular season and then didn't have to play either No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Whatever luck Pitino had with that route was scotched with this draw. I also don't like the personnel trade of two senior forwards — David Padgett and Juan Palacios — for one freshmen — Samardo Samuels.

That really leaves only one other choice because Kansas (3) is a year late and Wake Forest (4) is just too unpredictable.

The process of elimination leads us to Michigan State (2), which has rebuilt its season after being embarrassed by UNC at Ford Field. Tom Izzo's team has that "under the radar" feel of a national power that has been ignored this season but has the experience to provide a tournament surprise (a relative surprise in this case since everyone loves Louisville).