Preseason rewind: Genius or idiot?

The most popular post on ACC Now in 2008 was the Summer Hoops Preview. With the ACC season in the books, let's go back and see how well your resident ACC Now expert (ha!) did.

This exercise is the result of multiple requests from Florida State fans (for obvious reasons). Let it be known Noles — I can admit when I was wrong.

FSU (picked 11th), Miami (fifth) and Georgia Tech (seventh) were the three teams I missed on. I either hit exactly or was plus-or-minus one spot on six teams. The other three teams I was off by two spots. 

Note: Predicted order was based on the regular season; Actual finish reflects the seeds for the ACC Tournament (also based on regular season). 

UNC

Predicted finish: 1st
Actual finish: 1st

Bottom line: No points awarded for obvious picks.

DUKE

Predicted finish: 2nd
Actual finish: 3rd

Giglio's a genius: (Quoted text from the preview) "They have to find a way to diversify their offense this season — more drives from [Gerald] Henderson, a post game from Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas or Miles Plumlee — some way to consistently add some 2s to all the 3s."

Duke took 111 fewer 3-pointers this season and was significantly more diversified on offense, especially during ACC play, with Henderson, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler taking the ball to the basket.

Bottom line: Good call, borderline exacta because Duke and Wake finished tied for second. 

WAKE FOREST

Predicted finish: 3rd
Actual finish: 2nd

Wish we had known: Ish Smith and Jeff Teague would have so much trouble playing together.

Thought placating all of the forwards would be Dino Gaudio's big challenge but it turned out to be the two point guards. With Smith recovering from ankle surgery, Teague ran the offense in the first three months of the season and authored Wake's biggest wins (over BYU, UNC and Duke).

With Smith playing more minutes — and taking the ball out of Teague's hands — the Deacs lost the rematch to Duke in February and flamed out of the ACC Tournament in March.

Bottom line: Good call considering Duke and Wake both won 12 ACC games.

CLEMSON

Predicted finish: 4th
Actual finish: 5th

Wish we had known: Demontez Stitt wasn't ready to take the next step.

Giglio's a genius: "Coach Oliver Purnell will miss Cliff Hammonds and James Mays, two exceptional defenders who created easy transition points, but in K.C. Rivers, Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt, the foundation is there for a return trip to the NCAA Tournament."

Well, Clemson's back in the tourney but I thought Stitt would be a force. The addition of freshman Andre Young reduced Stitt's minutes and perhaps stunted his development.

Bottom line: Another reasonably good call.

MIAMI

Predicted finish: 5th
Actual finish: 9th

Wish we had known: Big man Dwayne Collins would be so inconsistent and freshman DeQuan Jones would be anchored to the bench.

Giglio's an idiot: "The good news is James Dews developed last season as a consistent outside threat to keep defenses honest with McClinton. Dews' game should take the next step, which will make Miami a tough out for ACC foes and in March."

One of Miami's bigger problems was Dews took a step back with both his scoring average (10.3 to 8.2) and shooting percentage (42.8 to 39.1) dropping.

Bottom line: Wrong about the Canes. Maybe it's the state of Florida?

VIRGINIA TECH

Predicted finish: 6th
Actual finish: 8th

Wish we had known: J.T. Thompson's injury.

Giglio's a genius: "[Coach Seth] Greenberg takes a lot of heat for screwing up with Stephen Curry but in [Malcolm] Delaney he found a legitimate All-ACC combo guard. ... He should blossom as a scorer as a sophomore as he gets more touches with the absence of [Deron] Washington."

Delaney's scoring average almost doubled from 9.6 to 18.2.

Giglio's an idiot: "Plus, they'll be hungry after what they perceived as being a snub from the NCAA Tournament selection committee. It might be impossible to keep them out next March."

Despite the return of four starters, there was no carry-over from last year's NCAA snub, particularly with a 5-4 start. And it's a second straight NIT for VT.

Bottom line: Thompson's absence in the first month, with a hernia, set the team back in terms of chemistry and momentum. Without Thompson, the team developed a three-pronged identity with Delaney, A.D. Vassallo and Jeff Allen and when the trio wasn't clicking the Hokies were just ordinary.

Still, a decent call standings-wise.

GEORGIA TECH

Predicted finish: 7th
Actual finish: 12th

Wish we had known: Three-fourths of the roster would tune Paul Hewitt out before New Year's.

Giglio's a genius: "Actually, 2007-08 was coach Paul Hewitt's second losing season in three years. ... This season looks like more of the same for Tech. ... Even Hewitt's best teams have never won more than nine ACC games. That won't change this season, even if the Jackets are better."

The Jackets finished 12-19 overall and 2-14 in the ACC.

Giglio's an idiot: Wrote that and still picked them to finish seventh. I liked their schedule, especially early, but this team was cooked when it lost its winnable opener to Virginia on Dec. 28.

Bottom line: Bad call. At least I had company on this one (the voting ACC media sent GT off at No. 8).  

BOSTON COLLEGE

Predicted finish: 8th
Actual finish: 6th

Wish we had known: Joe Trapani was the second coming of Mike Dunleavy Jr.

Giglio's a genius: "This might look too high for a team that won four games and basically adds one recruit but at this point, Al Skinner deserves the benefit of the doubt."

Genius may be strong but solid intuition to trust Skinner.

Giglio's an idiot: "Inside, the Eagles are thin with the transfer of Shamari Spears ... but Spears would have been better than the alternatives this season. ... The NIT is probably the best BC can do."

Can I have that paragraph back? Trapani averaged 13.5 points and a team-best 6.6 rebounds.

Bottom line: Not as bad as the voting ACC media, which tabbed BC at 11.

MARYLAND

Predicted finish: 9th
Actual finish: 7th

Wish we had known: Landon Milbourne would be the forward to emerge.

Giglio's a genius: "[Greivis Vasquez's] assists might come down without James Gist or Bambale Osby to feed in the post, but the scoring numbers should go up."

Vasquez averaged 5.1 assists, down from 6.8 in 2007-08, and his scoring went from 17.0 to 17.2 (technically an increase).

Giglio's an idiot: "Look, Maryland fans are restless. It seems like an eternity since that 2002 national title, especially when the Terps have missed the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. They might want to come to grips now that it's going to be four of the past five."

Is it $5 a mulligan?

Bottom line: Didn't get the NCAA bid right, but the final slot wasn't that off.

N.C. State

Predicted finish: 10th
Actual finish: 10th

Wish we had known: Nailed this one.

Basically wrote the Wolfpack would be better than 4-12 because Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner would be better than they were in 2007-08. True.

Also wrote that seven wins was their ceiling. State finished 6-10.

Bottom line: Could have used some of that State knowledge with the other State.

Florida State

Predicted finish: 11th
Actual finish: 4th

Wish we had known: Solomon Alabi was healthy and that good.

Giglio's an idiot: "The Noles did not make the NCAA Tournament in [coach Leonard] Hamilton's first six seasons and won't get there in Year 7. ... On another team, in another season, Douglas could have been All-ACC with his 15.4 scoring average, but the Noles are stuck in a 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 pattern and they can't get out of it. ... This season promises to be more of the same, if not a step back from the 7-to-9 win range."

Just in case I wasn't clear enough before — I was wrong FSU fan, I'm sorry.

Giglio's not a total idiot: "Part of [the problem] is Hamilton, who appears to be picking the bench rotation out of a hat before every game and maybe even at halftime."

At least I got one thing right about the Noles.

Bottom line: Awful. Should let my 4-year-old write the FSU capsule next year. It will be miles better.

Virginia

Predicted finish: 12th
Actual finish: 11th

Wish we had known: Georgia Tech was going to be that bad.

Giglio's a genius: "As bad as the football season promises to be for the Wahoos, the basketball season will be even worse. ... That leaves the immortal Mamadi Diane, who averaged 11.8 points per game, but was as likely to score six points as he was 20. You never know which Diane you're going to get. ... Of course, UVa didn't collect $191 million for a new arena for a never-ending rebuilding cycle. [Coach Dave] Leitao, despite an inspiring start to his tenure, is officially on the clock."

After a 10-18, 4-12 season, Leitao "resigned" on Tuesday.

Bottom line: Please read this preview FSU fan, see the sun  occassionally shines on my knowledge.