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Pre-preview: Coastal Division

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In predicted order of finish:

1. VIRGINIA TECH

2007 record: 11-3, 7-1 ACC (Coastal champs, ACC champs)

Returning starters: Offense 7, Defense 4

Quarterback?: Yes. Sean Glennon (12 TDs, 5 INTs) and Tyrod Taylor (5 TDs, 3 INTs)

Avoid in the ACC: N.C. State, Clemson, Wake Forest

Coaching situation: Frank Beamer has won 167 games in 21 years at his alma mater and, if he wants, he can coach the next 21 years there.

Spring issues: Defense is usually the last of Virginia Tech's concerns but with the loss of four starters to the NFL, including end Chris Ellis and linebacker Xavier Adibi, the Hokies have to take a step back from last year's unit, which ranked third the country in scoring defense (16 points per game) and fourth in total defense (296 yards per game).

Safety Kam Chancellor and corner Macho Harris will keep the secondary the best in the conference but there are legitimate concerns at linebacker and on the line.

On the other side of the ball, Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor made an awkward quarterback rotation work in the second half of the season after Glennon was benched for his part in the 48-7 pummeling by eventual national champion LSU.

Will Beamer stick with the combo or let Glennon, a fifth-year senior, control his final season? They're so different — Glennon, the passer, and Taylor, the scrambler — it just might work for a whole season.

The bigger issue on offense is running back. Branden Ore was kicked off the team after academic and legal problems. With Ore, who led the team with 992 yards, Tech ranked seventh in the conference and 82nd nationally in rushing offense, averaging 133 yards per game.

An inexperienced and average offensive line contributed to the poor running game as much as anything else.

Interestingly enough for a team that ranked 85th nationally in passing, the Hokies had three receivers taken in the NFL Draft, including Josh Morgan, who led the team with 46 catches. So someone will have to catch the ball, too.

Fall outlook: The Hokies have been by far and away the best team in the ACC since joining the conference in 2004, winning 27 of 32 conference games. The Coastal Division is so bad, it's Virginia Tech's to lose, even in a transitional year like this.

The defense will find talent and coordinator Bud Foster will know what to do with them. The offense will find someone to run the ball, probably freshman Ryan Williams but maybe Garner's Josh Oglesby, and the quarterbacks will do enough to win the games they are supposed to. Given Tech's schedule, that's at least 10 wins for a fifth straight season.

The opener against ECU in Charlotte will be tough, and could be a loss, but after that the challenges will be at Florida State and at Nebraska.

The ACC title game is Dec. 6 in Tampa. It wouldn't be wrong for VT fans to buy their tickets now.

 

2. MIAMI

 

2007 record: 5-7, 2-6 ACC

Returning starters: Offense 4, Defense 6.

Quarterback?: No. Kyle Wright (12 TDs, 14 INTs) exhausted his eligibility

Avoid in the ACC: BC, Maryland, Clemson

Coaching situation:
Miami expects more than 5-7 and Randy Shannon understands that better than anyone. The problem for Shannon is it could take more time than he has to fix Miami's free-falling program.

Spring issues: For once, the Canes aren't dealing with a mass exodus to the NFL. In fact, eight freshmen enrolled in January to give The U an influx of talent.

When, or will, that group get The U get back to being The U? When they find a quarterback. For whatever reasons — injuries, lack of confidence, lack of coaching — highly-touted Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman never lived up to their potential.

Robert Mavre, a redshirt freshman and another highly-touted recruit, attempts to replace Wright and Freeman, who tag-teamed the starting spot the past two seasons to the tune of a 12-13 record.

Miami was an unbelievably awful 110th in total offense in 2007 and 101st in scoring offense. This from a program that once didn't have room on its depth chart for Willis McGahee.

The Canes will improve when the offensive line does. Both tackles return, which is a start, but the group needs an attitude adjustment.

Fall outlook: For some reason, Miami fans are optimistic for Randy Shannon's second season and first out of the Orange Bowl and at Dolphin Stadium. Maybe it's because it can't get much worse than 2007, when Miami — freakin' Miami! — went 2-6 against the ACC.

Or maybe it's the new recruiting class, but every Miami recruiting class is considered great. What Shannon needs is for the Canes to feel the embarrassment from last season, especially the disaster against Virginia in the final game of the Orange Bowl (a 48-0 loss), and start walking the walk instead of just talking the talk.

Given Miami's schedule — with consecutive September road dates to Florida and Texas A&M — a quick fix is not forthcoming. Unless Ray Lewis, Jeremy Shockey, Ed Reed, Bernie Kosar and Andre Johnson are among the eight freshmen, the Canes are staring at another .500 season, which only in the Coastal Division, is good enough for second place.

 

3. UNC

 

2007 record: 4-8, 3-5 ACC

Returning starters: Offense 10, Defense 8

Quarterback?: Yes. T.J. Yates (14 TDs, 18 INTs)

Avoid in the ACC: Florida State, Wake Forest, Clemson

Coaching situation: Butch Davis didn't make a lot of friends in his first season by angling a raise out of a four-win season but he made a lot of money. Davis' job is as far from danger as possible but there is pressure to prove he's worth the renegotiated $2 million-plus salary.

Spring issues: Yates, a sophomore, missed the entire spring recovering from shoulder surgery. Given his relative inexperience in the sport, that's valuable practice time.

Besides Yates, safety Trimane Goddard (wrist), tackle Kyle Jolly (foot) and linebacker Chase Rice (ankle) missed the spring sessions, which doesn't exactly foster continuity, especially for a young team with so many players back.

The good news is those players will be ready for August and a year removed from the lame-duck finish with John Bunting, the Heels are the only Coastal Division program, besides Virginia Tech, not breaking in a new coach, new quarterback or both.

The Heels need better to play on defense and while they only lost three starters, two were big — DT Kentwan Balmer (first-round pick, San Francisco) and leading tackler Durell Mapp. Mapp made just about every play for a weak linebacking corps, that was often reduced to just two LBs in favor or nickel package. UNC needs Bruce Carter to offset Mapp's absence.

On offense, the passing game will be strong as Yates becomes more consistent, and with the help of junior receiver Hakeem Nicks (74 catches), but the running game still has issues. Just because Greg Little, who played the first 10 games at receiver, rushed for 158 yards against Duke in the season-finale, it doesn't mean the running game, which ranked 107th nationally, is fixed. Little has to hold up over a full season and sophomores Anthony Elzy and Ryan Houston also have to be more productive.

Fall outlook: It's possible UNC could start 1-3 and still finish 8-4. That's indicative of both how good the Heels' could be in Butch Davis' second season and just how bad the Coastal Division is.

After a I-AA opener, UNC goes to Rutgers, gets Virginia Tech at home and then goes to Miami. There's no reason they couldn't win at Miami — they beat the Canes at home last season — but until UNC proves it can win on the road, those coin-toss games have to be considered losses.

The Heels went 0-6 on the road in 2007 and have lost 13 of 14 road games overall and 20 straight outside the state of North Carolina. The Heels play Miami, Virginia, Maryland and Duke on the road in the ACC.

After Notre Dame, which also won four games in 2007, visits on Oct. 11, the Heels close with six ACC games they'll have a chance to win, even at Virginia where they never win, not since 1981 anyway.

The Heels also avoid what could be the top three teams in the Atlantic Division so the schedule sets up for Davis to make a big improvement, at least to 7-5. If not, the Rams Club should ask for a refund.

 

4. DUKE

 

2007 record: 1-11, 0-8 ACC

Returning starters: Offense 6, Defense 9

Quarterback?: Yes. Thad Lewis (21 TDs, 10 INTs)

Avoid in the ACC: Florida State, Maryland, BC

Coaching situation: Former Ole Miss head coach and Tennessee assistant David Cutcliffe replaces Ted Roof, who went 6-45 in four and half seasons.

Spring issues: Cutcliffe brings a new playbook and philosophy to Duke football. Cutcliffe may not fully understand the situation he has gotten himself into, but his optimism should be contagious for a program that desperately needs a proven, experienced coach to fix what has been the worst in Division I-A football.

The players had to learn Cutcliffe's offense — which he says it will be as varied as the New England Patriots — and his coaching style in the spring. There will be an adjustment period, moreso on offense with only six starters back, and it's going to take more time than spring practice — as the 14-3 Blue-White game score showed — to catch the players up to Cutcliffe's speed.

Other than teaching the offensive line how to block, Cutcliffe's most pressing issue in the spring was the kicking game. The Devils missed eight of 11 field goal attempts in 2007. Both kickers, Joe Surgan and Nick Maggio are back, but neither impressed the new coach.

"I've thought about going for it on fourth down and going for two," Cutcliffe said. "I'm not kidding."

Fall outlook:
There's a natural "getting to know you" phase with a new coach but Cutcliffe has a real chance to make do on his promise to rebuild Duke football.

With a good quarterback, who could be great with Cutcliffe's guidance, a declining ACC and the easiest schedule Duke is ever going to face, Cutcliffe could match the Devils' combined win total since 2003 (four).

Or, Duke could lose the opener to James Madison and never get out of the batter's box.

Either way, the first four games are at home with Northwestern, Duke's lone win in 2007, after JMU and rebuilding Navy and Virginia after that. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Duke could start 4-0.

Being Duke, the Devils probably won't, but there's a real chance for progress, especially if whatever Manning Magic can be rubbed off on Lewis.

5. VIRGINIA

2007 record: 9-4, 6-2 ACC

Returning starters: Offense 6, Defense 5

Quarterback?: No. Junior Jameel Sewell (12 TDs, 9 INTs) is academically ineligible

Avoid in the ACC: N.C. State, Florida State, BC

Coaching situation: Al Groh (51-37) made his seventh season his best at UVa, winning nine games and matching his best ACC record at 6-2. The success of 2007 should buy Groh more time, even if 2008 turns out to be as bad as it looks on paper.

Spring issues: Virginia knew it was going to lose the best defensive player in the ACC and the St. Louis Rams made senior defensive end Chris Long the second overall pick in the NFL Draft.

The Cavaliers also planned for life without its best offensive lineman, junior guard Branden Albert, who left early and went 15th overall in the draft.

What Groh wasn't counting on was the loss of junior quarterback Jameel Sewell, who would have been starting for his third straight season if not for academic issues.

Academics also claimed defensive end Jeffrey Fitzgerald, who didn't make as many big plays as Long, but was a great fit in UVa's 3-4 scheme, and starting corner Chris Cook.

Those personnel losses make it nearly impossible for UVa to match last season's win total.

The Hoos need to find playmakers on defense and a quarterback, sophomore Peter Lalich was shaky at best in relief of Sewell, whose talents the spread-option offense were tailored to, especially after Cedric Peerman's midseason injury.

Fall outlook: While bleak, it's not all bad news. Peerman, who was the best running back in the ACC before his ankle injury, returns and so does Mikell Simpson, who rushed for 570 yards in relief of Peerman and led the team with 43 catches.

For all of Groh's personality faults, he knows how to coach and develop offensive linemen. UVa should be able to run the ball if Lalich, Scott Deke or Mark Verica are merely competent.

Residing in the Coastal half of the ACC gives them a chance to win four games but their nonconference schedule couldn't be much tougher, particularly the opener against USC.

Don't be surprised if Virginia's picked to finish behind Duke in the Coastal at the ACC Media Kickoff this weekend but I think Virginia's running game will keep them out of the cellar.

 

6. GEORGIA TECH

 

2007 record: 7-6, 4-4 ACC

Returning starters: Offense 4, Defense 4

Quarterback?: No. Taylor Bennett (7 TDs, 9 INTs) transferred to Louisiana Tech

Avoid in the ACC: N.C. State, Maryland, Wake Forest

Coaching situation: After winning seven games for the fifth time in six seasons, Chan Gailey got the boot. He was replaced by Navy's Paul Johnson. At Navy, Johnson turned one of the worst programs in the country into a consistent winner (45-29 in six seasons). Plan B in the coaching searches at both UNC and N.C. State in 2006, Johnson was Plan A for both Georgia Tech and Duke in 2007. He chose to return to the state of Georgia, where he coached I-AA power Georgia Southern for five seasons in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Spring issues: Georgia Tech hit the restart button after six seasons of mediocrity under Gailey. Gone is Gailey's pro-style offense and Jon Tenuta's hyper-blitzing defense.

Johnson's Navy teams ran the triple-option and led the NCAA in rushing for three straight seasons from 2005 to 2007. He's being coy about how much Georgia Tech's offense will look like Navy's. The Jackets will almost certainly throw more than Navy did last season — 804 running plays to 136 passing — and they'll do it with a new quarterback.

Senior Taylor Bennett didn't fit Johnson's system so he graduated and transferred to Louisiana Tech, where he'll be eligible to play this season, thanks to an NCAA waiver.

Not that Bennett was great. Hardly. He was almost as productive in the Gator Bowl, with Calvin Johnson, as he was in an entire season without the stud receiver.

Sophomore Josh Nesbitt would be a more logical choice than Calvin Booker, a senior, to start at quarterback because if Nesbitt works out, Johnson wouldn't have to repeat the process next spring.

Three of the returning starters are on the offensive line, which gives Johnson hope that a running game can be established. The major missing piece of the offense is Tashard Choice (fourth-round pick), who led the ACC with 1,379 rushing yards.

Johnson's offense uses three running backs — a fullback, or B-Back, and two slots, or A-Backs. Jonathan Dwyer (B-Back) and Jamaal Evans and Roddy Jones will get plenty of chances to run the ball in Johnson's offense.

Defensively, Dave Wommack, most recently of Southern Miss but also coached at South Carolina and Arkansas, inherits a group with just four starters, albeit one very good one in defensive tackle Vance Walker. Junior linebacker Shane Bowen is in line to pick up for tackling machine Philip Wheeler.

Fall outlook: Johnson is an excellent coach who knows how to prepare and motivate his players. He deserves full credit for taking Navy from 1-20, in the two seasons before he got there, to 17-8 in his final two seasons.

But ...

Navy annually played the easiest schedule in college football. And by the looks of GT's 2008 schedule, not a lot has changed for Johnson. There aren't seven wins in Johnson's future but there's at least four, half against I-AA teams Jacksonville State and Gardner-Webb, and both Duke and Virginia visit Atlanta.

The rest of the schedule is uphill, especially the season-ender against Georgia, who would have to forfeit not to extend their seven-game winning streak in the series.

 

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Easiest Schedule?

"Navy annually played the easiest schedule in college football. And by the looks of GT's 2008 schedule, not a lot has changed for Johnson."

J.P.

Can you explain these statements?  They seem pretty "factually challenged" to me.

 During Johnson's tenure, Navy played 6, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 5 BCS opponents.  No other non-BCS school played as many major conference opponents, so it is impossible for Navy's schedule to be the "easiest" schedule.

Georgia Tech did settle for a second I-AA team this year when Army cancelled, but quite frankly I wish everyone scheduled like Tech. 

 Playing Georgia and Mississippi State this year will make 18 BCS regular season non-conference opponents in the past 8 years, and 27 BCS opponents are on the schedule for the next 14 years. 

With road games at Georgia, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and North Carolina already on the schedule, Tech needed the seventh home game.  The first real opening for a road game is in 2017, so Tech's scheduling options were limited.

 

I don't think it's going to be *that* bad...

A .500 Miami team in second place? From this pack, someone besides Virginia Tech will find their way to 8 wins--I'm not even sure the math works out otherwise. GT may surprise a bit depending on how the conference reacts to their first exposure to whatever sort of offense Johnson creates. Duke is so miserable in terms of personnel that I'd be stunned if they won more than 3 overall and more than 1 in-conference.

Duke? Serioulsly?

Ok, I think it would be great for the ACC and for Duke to finish where you placed them, but I just don't see it. Virginia, perenial underachievers, cannot let Duke finish ahead of them and Georgia Tech would be equally embarassed.

The school that SUCCESSFULLY argued in court that they are so bad that ANY team would be of equal stature for the Louisville schedule cannot finish ahead of UVA and GT, and if they do, those programs need to really think about where they are.

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