Pick Four: Thursday's third round

When the top 12 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time in history, you know my contrarian bracket is going down in flames.

I hate all this chalk. Hated it last year with all four No. 1s in the Final Four and really hate it this year with all the No. 1s, all the No. 2s and all the No. 3s still alive. I'm begging the basketball gods for just one surprise tonight (or tomorrow).

First round: 25-8. Second round: 13-3.

All games on CBS (digital cable 1051 and 1052)

East Regional

Xavier (4) vs. Pitt (1)
@ Boston
Time: 7:27

While UConn, Memphis, Louisville or Carolina (in the first round) racked up style points, Pitt beat 16th-seeded East Tennessee State by 10 points and eighth-seeded Oklahoma State by eight.

Pitt, by Jamie Dixon's design (which is actually a copy of Ben Howland's blueprint), doesn't win pretty. My preseason and pre-tournament pick should be due for a stronger effort against an Xavier team with a weak interior.

What ultimately might cost Pitt is the number of options outside of forward DaJuan Blair and shooter Sam Young, but Xavier's not the team to send them home. Pick: Pitt

Villanova (3) vs. Duke (2)
@ Boston
Time: 9:57

Nova looks at Duke and Duke looks at Nova and they should each see the same things — a guard-heavy lineup that plays physical defense, although in Nova's case, it defends more of the court.

There's no doubt playing at home helped Nova in the first round, a game they likely would have lost at another location. They responded with a strong win over UCLA in Round 2, though.

Duke stayed in its home state, but it had no such advantage in Greensboro. The Blue Devils out-lasted Texas in Round 2 and did so with 73 percent of its offense from its (I hate to use the overused moniker but) "Big Three" of Kyle Singler, Gerald Henderson and John Scheyer.

Whatever talent advantage Nova has is offset by Duke's coaching advantage. That means it comes down to perimeter shooting (again) for Duke. If they can get into a halfcourt set — i.e. break Nova's halfcourt and three-quarter traps — they'll likely find the shots to win.

If Nova disrupts Scheyer and makes Duke the "Big Two," the Cats will advance. I think Scheyer is up to the task. Pick: Duke

West Regional

Purdue (5) vs. UConn (1)
@ Glendale, Ariz.
Time: 7:07

Unless the rules have been changed, UConn can't carry over any of those points from a 103-47 win over Chattanooga or the 92-66 whipping of Texas A&M. So while everyone's so impressed with UConn's big wins, the Huskies are still the same flawed team that entered the tournament with three losses in the previous six games.

Now, will Purdue (not to be confused with Will Perdue) be able to take advantage of UConn's missing parts on offense (the injured Jerome Dyson)?

Why not? Purdue is an experienced tournament team (the Boilers were really the only team to challenge Florida in 2007) and they beat Washington in difficult circumstances (in Portland) just to get here. Come on, Purdue, this tournament needs an upset. Pick: Purdue.

Missouri (3) vs. Memphis (2)
@ Glendale, Ariz.
Time: 9:57

This game should be the anti-FSU/Wisconsin matchup. Two teams with exceptional athletes that will get up-and-down the floor and produce a ton of points.

Memphis slept-walk in the first round and got away with it and then pounded Maryland in the second round.

Mizzou throttled Cornell and then got lucky against Marquette.

You have to admire John Calipari's ability to motivate his team. Every year they win 30 games and should be a favorite, but every year they get disrespected (by people like me) who don't understand how they can lose so many top-end players to the NBA and still be great.

I think Cal's a better coach than Mizzou's Mike Anderson, and his experience will be the difference in a tight game. If we've learned anything in the first weekend, coaching matters in this tournament. Pick: Memphis