News & Observer | newsobserver.com | 2008 NCAA Men's Bracket

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I love it when game previews tell you "Turnovers will determine the game." Really? Thanks, Captain Obvious.

But in the case of UNC, it's true. The Tar Heels are plus-18 in their six wins over I-A teams and minus-6 in their three losses.

Think about it — UNC lost its quarterback (T.J. Yates) in the third game and its best playmaker (Brandon Tate) in the sixth game but still found a way to get to 7-3.

How? Easy. Plus-4 against Rutgers, with a pick six; plus-2 against Miami; plus-2 against UConn, with a pick six; plus-5 against Notre Dame with a pick six; plus-2 against BC with a pick six; and plus-3 against Georgia Tech.

And in the losses, where they haven't produced the turnovers to overcome the talent drain? Minus-2 against Virginia Tech, the game Yates got hurt; minus-3 at Virginia and minus-1 at Maryland. 

Note: Two of those games were on the road.

UNC's 4-1 at home against I-A teams this season, and 7-3 under Butch Davis with a two-point loss to Virginia ('07), six-point loss to South Carolina ('07) and a three-point loss to VT ('08).

Those are two factors working against N.C. State on Saturday. On the positive side for the Wolfpack has been the play of Russell Wilson. The freshman quarterback hasn't thrown an interception in 175 attempts and only one in six ACC games (at Clemson, the first game back from a concussion on Sept. 13).

The improvement of State's offensive line, which has adjusted with two converted defensive linemen, has been a big reason Wilson has played essentially mistake-free.

He will need to continue to do so if State's going to win consecutive games over UNC. Remember, the only reason last year's game, 31-27 State, in Raleigh was even close was because UNC scored two defensive touchdowns — a pair of pick sixes off of Daniel Evans.

Actually, if you want another obvious key, keep an eye on UNC's running game.

Without Tate, UNC has essentially morphed into a running team. Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston combined for just 56 yards on 17 carries in the loss at Maryland. The previous game, a 28-7 win over GT, Draughn and Houston combined for 164 yards on 30 carries.

In back-to-back wins over Duke and Wake Forest, State has allowed just 94 and 98 rushing yards, respectively.

Turnovers and the running game, yep, it's brain surgery. Occam's Razor exists for a reason.