To follow up on the Utah debate (and I'm in awe of the volume of Utah fans), if you've followed my AP ballot on this site, you know that I rank the top 25 teams based on the quality of wins and the location of the wins.
I vote based on actual results, giving more weight to the "best" wins. I make no effort to predict fantasy outcomes (would Utah beat Texas/USC/Florida/Oklahoma on a neutral field?) I'm not saying that's the wrong way to do it, just that I don't. Quite frankly, my predictions don't matter (and are often wrong).
I'll run the complete ballot on Thursday after the BCS title game, but here's a comparison between Utah, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas based on wins over Top 10 teams (projected in the final AP ballot), Top 25 teams (projected) and teams with a winning record.
Utah fans have been adamant in their e-mails that the Utes would walk away with the No. 1 spot if we just looked at their resume and not the name of the school or its conference affiliation.
I've got to disagree.
Look, Utah, USC, Texas and the BCS title game winner all have a legitimate argument for No. 1. In my opinion — and according to the methodology I've used as an AP voter since 2005 — I'm going with the Florida/Oklahoma winner.
Look at the resumes:
Utah
Top 10s (2): Alabama (31-17, Sugar Bowl), TCU (13-10)
Top 25s (2): Oregon State (31-28), BYU (48-24)
Winning record (2): @ Air Force (30-23), Colorado State (49-16)
Florida
Top 10s (2): Oklahoma (BCS title game), Alabama (31-20, SEC title game)
Top 25s (2): Georgia (49-10 @ Jacksonville), @ Florida State (45-15)
Winning record (4): LSU (51-21), Miami (26-3), @ Vanderbilt (56-6), South Carolina (56-6)
Oklahoma
Top 10s (2): Florida (BCS title game), TCU (35-10)
Top 25s (5): @ Oklahoma State (61-41), Cincinnati (52-26), Texas Tech (65-21), Missouri (62-21 Big 12 title game), Nebraska (62-28)
Winning record (1): Kansas (45-31)
Texas
Top 10s (1): Oklahoma (45-35 @ Dallas)
Top 25s (3): Oklahoma State (28-24), Missouri (56-31), Ohio State (24-21, Fiesta Bowl)
Winning record (2): Rice (52-10), Florida Atlantic (52-10)
Or in chart form:
| Team | Quality wins |
Top 10s |
Top 25s |
+.500 |
Home |
R/N |
| Florida | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Oklahoma | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Utah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Texas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Notes: R/N is road or neutral site wins; Nebraska (9-4) was not in the final regular-season AP Top 25.
• • • •
Of Utah's six quality wins, four were on its home field (both Oklahoma and Florida have/will have more).
Of Utah's best wins, Florida shares the Alabama win and Oklahoma shares the TCU win. By winning Thursday, Florida or Oklahoma will have a better "best" win that trumps Utah's unique best win.
To put that in English: Florida's best wins would be Oklahoma and Alabama, that's better than TCU and Alabama. Oklahoma's best wins would be Florida and TCU, that's better than Alabama and TCU.
Texas has the fewest "best" wins. That's the fault of the BCS (why didn't Texas play Utah in the Fiesta Bowl?), not theirs, but combined with their performance against Ohio State, there's just not enough for me to put the Horns No. 1 over the BCS winner, even if it's Oklahoma.
Utah's counter-argument would be it did not lose a game. If we were talking about 2007 and a two-loss BCS winner (LSU), I'd factor that in the vote but we're not.
One loss or not, Florida and/or Oklahoma will have a better body of work than Utah. At least, that's my opinion based on the above numbers.
Comments
losses
Wed, 01/07/2009 - 19:35 — masloopso losses don't matter at all?it sounds like you're saying that quantity of quality wins is the only important factor.Since Florida and Oklahoma both played 2 more teams with winning records than Utah did, how does that mak them more deserving?If they had each lost games against teams with losing records, would they be irrelevant. Also, shouldn't win percentage vs teams with winning records matter:
Utah 6-0 1.000
Florida 8-1 .888
Oklahoma 8-1 .888
Texas 6-1 .857
Margin of victory
Wed, 01/07/2009 - 13:32 — tarheelfanblogUtah: 10.5
Texas: 21
FL: 30
OK: 36
Margin of victory
Wed, 01/07/2009 - 13:18 — jpg (author)Should have pointed that out.
Gracias.
— JPG
Don't try to frighten us
Wed, 01/07/2009 - 13:06 — tarheelfanblogDon't try to frighten us with your statistical ways Joe Giglio! Your sad devotion to the numbers has not helped you to come up with a better system for determining a national champion or given you clairvoyance enough to explain why the ACC sucks in football...
Seriously, that makes sense to me, especially when you look at the margins of victory both FL and Oklahoma racked up against all of those teams.