Note: J.P. Giglio is one of 60 voters in the AP Top 25.
11. Alabama
2008 record: 12-2
Key games: Virginia Tech (Sept. 5), @ Ole Miss (Oct. 10), LSU (Nov. 7)
Bottom line: A Sugar Bowl flop diminished what was otherwise a remarkable season for the Tide in Year 2 under Nick Saban. It jumped from seven wins to 12, took the SEC West title and were a quarter away from playing for the national title before getting Tebowed.
The defense is essentially the same while the offense starts over with a new quarterback, new line and new featured back. Receiver Julio Jones, who had 58 catches for 924 as a freshman, should create room, and big plays, while the rest of the group learns on the go.
12. Ohio State
2008 record: 10-3
Key games: USC (Sept. 12), @ Penn State (Nov. 7), @ Michigan (Nov. 21)
Bottom line: There's no doubt the Buckeyes shrink on the biggest stage but there's also no denying when 10-3 is a "down" season, Jim Tressel has a good thing going in Columbus.
It remains to be seen if the creativity in which they used QB Terrelle Pryor in the bowl game carries over to the regular season but Pryor's talent is such that if he's just running and passing the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten title outright for the third time in four years.
Just don't expect much when USC comes to town on Sept. 12.
13. Boise State
2008 record: 12-1
Key games: Oregon (Sept. 3), @ Tulsa (Oct. 14)
Bottom line: Boise State had the unfortunate timing of going 12-0 the same season Utah did, leaving the Broncos out of the BCS mix. They didn't exactly acquit themselves, losing a 17-16 clunker to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl. (Perhaps being relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl had something to do with their effort.)
The Broncs keep on humming at quarterback with Kellen Moore (3,486 yards, 25 TDs) carrying on the gunslinging tradition set by Ryan Dinwiddie, Jared Zabransky and Taylor Tharp.
14. Penn State
2008 record: 11-2
Key games: Ohio State (Nov. 7), @ Michigan State (Nov. 21)
Bottom line: Penn State makes no apologies for its sad-sack schedule — which includes Temple, Eastern Illinois and Akron this season — as they cushion Joe Paterno's win record like Mickey lining up tomato cans for Rocky.
The problem is, when the Nittany Lions do face Clubber Lang, they get pummeled. Only the grace of Pete Carroll prevented USC from running Paterno and PSU right out of the Rose Bowl after opening up a 28-7 halftime lead. They were completely outclassed in every way. The good news is USC's not on the schedule (but Syracuse is!).
QB Daryll Clark is Big Ten-good, and RB Evan Royster (1,236 yards) can move, but like its conference brethren, the Nits just aren't ready for primetime.
15. Oregon
2008 record: 10-3
Key games: @ Boise State (Sept. 3), Utah (Sept. 19), USC (Oct. 31)
Bottom line: Nobody knows if these cockamamie coach-in-waiting transitions work, but Oregon's going to find out with the elevation of Chip Kelly, Mike Bellotti's offensive coordinator and groomed successor.
Bellotti left Kelly with more uniform options than starters but the overall talent of the Ducks' program is undeniable. RB LeGarrette Blount ran for 1,002 yards while sharing reps with the departed Jeremiah Johnson and QB Jeremiah Masoli (718 yards, 10 TDs).
The schedule might be the toughest in the country but the Ducks will find a way to win nine or 10 games, at least they always seem to under Bellotti.
16. Georgia Tech
2008 record: 9-4
Key games: @ Miami (Sept. 17), Virginia Tech (Oct. 17), Georgia (Nov. 28)
Bottom line: Paul Johnson out-kicked his coverage in winning nine games in his rookie season in the ACC. Even with two wins over lower Division I opponents, the Jackets surprised with road wins over Boston College, Clemson and their first win over Georgia in seven years.
Johnson couldn't create a better fit for his flex option offense than QB Josh Nesbitt (693 rushing yards) or RB Jonathan Dwyer (1,395). The addition of Louisville transfer Anthony Allen will only make that unit, which ranked fourth nationally (272.2 yards per game) in team rushing, more dangerous.
A late bye in the schedule (Nov. 21) doesn't help injury issues — which have already sprouted — or team morale, but the pieces are there for Johnson to pull off an encore.
17. BYU
2008 record: 10-3
Key games: Florida State (Sept. 19), TCU (Oct. 24), Utah (Nov. 28)
Bottom line: The Cougars have won 32 games since 2006 under Bronco Mendenhall. That's 13 more than Miami, nine more than Michigan and one more than LSU.
With QB Max Hall (35 TDs) and leading rusher Harvey Unga (1,132 yards) returning, a fourth straight double-digit win season and a third MWC title in four years is in reach.
How the Cougs handle the opener, win or lose against Oklahoma in Arlington, Texas, will determine the tone of their season.
18. TCU
2008 record: 11-2
Key games: @ Clemson (Sept. 26), @ BYU (Oct. 24), Utah (Nov. 14)
Bottom line: The Horned Frogs are the rare team that prefers to win with defense, which is even rarer among teams outside the six major conferences. TCU held five Mountain West opponents to seven points or less and two more outside the league. Even the 35 points they gave up to Oklahoma in looked good by the end of the Sooners' five-game, 60-point run to close out the regular season.
The defense loses its top three leading tacklers, and seven starters, but Gary Patterson's philosophy remains the same in Fort Worth. The offense, with three-year starter Andy Dalton at quarterback and WR Jimmy Young (988 yards), should be improved.
19. Oregon State
2008 record: 9-4
Key games: Cincinnati (Sept. 19), @ USC (Oct. 24), Oregon (Dec. 3)
Bottom line: Injuries, and Oregon, prevented the Beavers from making their first Rose Bowl trip since 1965 after they stunned USC in Corvallis and then ripped off six straight Pac-10 wins. They collapsed in the finale against the Ducks, losing 65-38 — putting USC in the Rose — only to slightly recover for a bizarre Sun Bowl win, 3-0 over Pitt.
The defense starts over, and after getting gashed by Oregon, that's not a bad thing. The important parts on offense — QB Lyle Moevao and RB Jacquizz Rodgers (1,253 yards) are healthy and Mike Riley continues to some of the best coaching west of the Mississippi (28 wins since 2007).
20. Utah
2008 record: 13-0
Key games: @ Oregon (Sept. 19), @ TCU (Nov. 14), @ BYU (Nov. 28)
Bottom line: As the original BCS-crasher in 2004, Utah had a hot-shot coach (Urban Meyer), hot-shot quarterback (Alex Smith) that blinded teams with a funky offense. Last year's team, just plain beat people, as evidenced by the 48-24 whipping of SEC runner-up Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
There are significant parts missing from that team, starting with QB Brian Johnson and CB Sean Smith, but the track record of coach Kyle Whittingham, Meyer's defensive coordinator before replacing him in '05, suggests that the Utes won't fall too far.
21. ECU
2008 record: 9-5
Key games: @ UNC (Sept. 19), Virginia Tech (Nov. 5), Southern Miss (Nov. 28)
Bottom line: The Pirates have talent at quarterback, receiver, offensive line, defensive front, safety and coach. They have the experience of beating Virginia Tech, West Virginia and winning Conference USA.
They also have the lessons of '08 — putting the cart before the horse, letting one loss turn into two — which should serve as a motivation for '09.
The schedule's no greased wheel, including the opener against Appalachian State, but there's no reason ECU can't repeat as C-USA champions and knock off one or more of their BCS conference opponents.
22. Pitt
2008 record: 9-4
Key games: @ Rutgers (Oct. 16), @ West Virginia (Nov. 27), Cincinnati (Dec. 5)
Bottom line: Somebody has to win the Big East and despite the loss of their entire offense — RB LeSean McCoy (1,488 yards, 21 TDs) — and an average coach, the Panthers qualify as the favorite.
The line that cleared the way for McCoy returns four starters and the defense has been the one constant under Dave Wannstedt, who broke through with his first winning season in '08.
23. Iowa
2008 record: 9-4
Key games: @ Penn State (Sept. 26), @ Michigan State (Oct. 24), @ Ohio State (Nov. 14).
Bottom line: Normally I don't like teams that lose the one player that carried their offense, but in the case of Iowa, the loss of running back Shonn Greene (1,850 yards, 20 TDs) should be offset by the return of three of his blockers, the quarterback (Ricky Stanzi) and a capable replacement at featured runner in Jewel Hampton (463 yards, 5.1 yards per carry).
The return of virtually every meaningful defender also means the Hawkeyes have the experience to unseat Penn State, or Ohio State, in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, the schedule sends the Hawks to both Happy Valley and the Horseshoe so they'll have to settle for another top-25 finish (No. 20 in '08).
24. N.C. State
2008 record: 6-7
Key games: South Carolina (Sept. 3), @ FSU (Oct. 31), UNC (Nov. 28)
Bottom line: The Wolfpack was the only ACC team to win its final four conference games in '08. With the best quarterback in the conference (Russell Wilson, 17 TDs-1 INT), a favorable home schedule and a coach (Tom O'Brien) whose teams always improve as the season gets longer, State has a legitimate chance to win the Atlantic Division and play for its first ACC title in 30 years.
25. Cincinnati
2008 record: 11-3
Key games: @ Rutgers (Sept. 7), @ Oregon State (Sept. 19), @ Pitt (Dec. 5)
Bottom line: Of the Bearcats' 11 wins, nine came when they scored at least 24 points. So? Losing 10 starters off the defense is not going to send Cincinnati spiraling back to woebegone days of Ralph Straub.
Coach Brian Kelly's ingenuity on offense, with the return of quarterback Tony Pike (19 TDs), receiver Mardy Gilyard (1,276 yards) and the top three rushers, will keep the Bearcats near the top of the Big East.
Kelly, with a 22-6 record and one Big East title, is not long for this job.
The next five: Nebraska, Florida State, Michigan State, UNC, Southern Miss
Comments
Panties in a wad
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 18:15 — mad_maxThis argument regarding UNC and NC State is getting annoying. How can any UNC fan be so upset about NC State being picked higher than them by one person in a pre-season poll? The only argument UNC fan has is overall record, and trust me, they've beat that into the ground almost as much as "41-10". But is it really a valid point? Just compare the schedules...Rutgers, UConn, and ND against SC, USF, and ECU. Really? That right there could easily be a two game swing. Of course, we will never know, but that's why you can't base EVERYTHING off of an overall record of two teams that weren't really that different. I mean according to the logic of UNC's only argument, Tulsa would be considered a better team than UNC last year. Do you agree with that? I don't...they may of had more wins in their overall record, but they played a weaker schedule. See how that works?
State fans
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 18:40 — Heels20are the ONLY ones that see it that way. ESPN, Sporting News and really any un-biased poll has Carolina above State. Your strength of schedule was NOT tougher last year. Fighting over whose was tougher is like two midgets fighting about who's taller. I brought up many other points for why Carolina should be ranked higher. We blew out more teams than State last year, and got blown out by fewer teams than State. We look at the season as a whole, while State fans look at just ONE GAME. And any time a State fan looks outside of that one game, they only take the positives. No State fan mentions getting blown out by a mediocre South Carolina team, or losing by a large margin to a Clemson team with absolutely no identity.
As far as your Tulsa argument goes, did you really try to make that comparison? They aren't in the same conference. But I guess that's the most I can expect from a State fan trying to put together a rational thought. I know that some of you struggle with that (how many false statements has awdracer made in an attempt to make an argument?). Try to come up with something other than "41-10!" or "frisbee!" and maybe I'll respect what you have to share.
Actually...
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 13:15 — bradleyb123State's strength of schedule WAS tougher than Carolina's. It one point, it was 3rd in the nation. I think we ended the season with the 9th ranked strength of schedule.
Funny, you mention SC and Clemson (our first two D-1 opponents. Russell and about half the team missed a good part of those games. And Russell was but a Wolfpup. I guess how a team starts compared to how they finished means nothing to you. State was the only ACC team to win their last four regular season games. That shows where we started, and where we were at the end. Funny how all those wins coincided with the return of several key starters from injury.
NC State was ABSOLUTELY better than Carolina last year, no matter how you try to spin it. (You won't write it here, but you know it, just like the rest of us...) A deluge of injuries is the only thing that prevented State from winning a paltry two more games that would have tied our win total with Carolina's. And win total is the only thing that Carolina has over State last year, a meaningless stat. And before you try to say Carolina beat Rutgers and we didn't, just know we were cruising right along until we lost our only QB to injury at halftime. We win that one easily if Russell stays healthy.
State was better than Carolina last year. They're better than Carolina this year. Only this year, you should see the all-important win total. And maybe Carolina will be better than Tulsa this year. Hard to say.
NC State's SOS was 10,
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 17:41 — Heels20NC State's SOS was 10, while Carolina's was 21. If you think 11 spots is significant enough, then I find it much more signifcant that we were ranked 25 spots ahead of State in the final rankings. So it sounds as though USAToday doesn't agree with you one bit.
You talk about how your injuries made a difference in 2 games. Cool man, we were 9 points away from 12-1, and injuries were the difference (2 TD lead on VT when Yates went down, loss to UVA the week after Tate was injured, etc.).
Russell Wilson is the best player in the conference. I'll repeat, Russell Wilson is the best player in the conference. He's also the most valuable. Why? Because your team is AWFUL when he goes down. Last time I checked, football requires 11 guys, something that is a painful truth to the Pack when Wilson goes down. You won your last 4 conference games, but two of those wins were over teams we beat, and one of them over a team we didn't even play. If State had lost their best player, Wilson, halfway through the season as we lost Tate, they would have crumbled and been lucky to finish the season with 3 wins. So how does that make you better?
You keep saying that State
Sat, 08/22/2009 - 14:47 — mad_maxYou keep saying that State fans are only looking at one game, but that's certainly not true. Like JP has pointed out over and over, how did the two teams finish the season? It's not how you start, it's how you finish. Teams get more experience as the season goes on, and usually teams get better as the season goes on. So yes, while State had a lousy start including some blowout losses, they finished the year on a hot streak with impressive wins, not just over the mighty Tar Heels. For UNC, it was quite the opposite...they started the year very strong and ended up crumbling at the end. You think that might of had anything to do with their weak OOC schedule early on? Probably. Of course Tulsa is in a different conference, but I brought them up for the sake of showing you what happens when teams play different schedules. You can't just look at the overall record and determine team A is better than team B (which unfortunately is what happens most of the time in preseason polls). I'm not saying State is definitely better than UNC right now, but I am saying that you can't definitively say that UNC is better. So if JP picks the Wolfpack 5 spots ahead of UNC in the pre-season poll, what's the big deal? I don't understand anyone's beef with that, other than the fact that they feel insulted because they are biased and don't think State should ever be ranked ahead of UNC.
I was making an argument for
Sat, 08/22/2009 - 17:55 — Heels20I was making an argument for how it was somewhat biased that he points out all of State's positives and all of Carolina's negatives in determining his decisions. And UNC did not have a weaker OOC schedule. As I said before, it's like two midgets fighting over who is taller. Each played a I-AA opponent and 3 decent other opponents. That reasoning won't work.
Actually...
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 13:18 — bradleyb123State's strength of schedule was tougher than Carolina's. I believe our schedule strength finished ranked 9th. I also think our OOC schedule was tougher, with USF, SC and ECU being on the schedule.
Fair enough. At least JP
Sun, 08/23/2009 - 18:30 — mad_maxFair enough. At least JP posted comments to talk about UNC a little more.
Are you saying that all midgets are the exact same height?!? lol just kidding.
Only time will tell I guess. In a few weeks we'll have plenty more to debate, I'm sure. And despite what TOB has said, I'm kinda glad we play at the very end of the season...gives us longer to discuss who's better until the actual judgement day. Looking forward to it.
Can't wait
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 17:42 — Heels20It should be a good year for both schools. Maybe we'll meet again on December 5.
Right on. As much as I
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 20:49 — mad_maxRight on. As much as I love to root against UNC in every contest, nothing would be finer than to meet up with Carolina on December 5th.
Boo Hoo, Heels 20. Don't
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:04 — awdracerBoo Hoo, Heels 20. Don't take it so hard, man.
I know enough about UNC. I know that they were dead last in the conference in sacks. I know that they gave up more yards than they gained and that they were pretty darn terrible on 3rd down. I also know that you were able to beat teams that outgained you by forcing turnovers. If that trend doesn't continue your lack of WR, OL, and overall coaching will come back to haunt you. Turnovers are a fickle thing.
You guys were good when the other team was turning the ball over. But when you had turnover problems what did you get? 41-10. That's what.
As for our OL. I would put it up against UNC's ANY day. We had trouble early in the season LAST year but by the end we were doing fine. Don't forget, after we got our feet under us we absolutely embarassed Miami. You should be worring about your own patchwork OL.
Regardless, I can assure you that you will be hiking your skirt up for the third time in a row when you play the Pack this year.
awdracer
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:41 — Heels20I've already caught you twice with inaccurate approaches (you claimed Nesbitt was injured in the GT game and that we had the worst defense in the ACC). Even State fans recognize that the O-line sucks. The only reason it may have looked good toward the end of the year is because Wilson is a scrambling QB. Please watch his highlights. He is constantly throwing on the run, creating his own space.
By the way, our lack of WR? Do your research, dude. Greg Little, Jheranie Boyd, Joshua Adams and Dwight Jones were all considered better WRs coming out of high school than ANY ONE that State has (except Jay Smith, maybe?). They didn't get to showcase their ability because they were either playing behind the best receiving corps in the ACC, or still in high school. When Jheranie Boyd picked us over so many SEC schools, that should say something. Open your eyes. Just because we don't have Nicks, Tate or Foster doesn't mean we're out of talent. We could be (and most likely) are re-loading with guys who will make for a smooth transition.
Lack of overall coaching? Are you a turf grass management major at State? How are you in college? Butch not only has a better record than TOB since he got to Carolina, but he had a better record before, also. He put together the greatest team in college football history (2001 Miami, and yes, Larry Coker was the one who actually won the title). The season before, Butch went 11-1 with a Sugar Bowl victory. What are you talking about lack of overall coaching? Are you a real person? That's the dumbest thing I have ever heard.
Finally, be my guest. Go right ahead and guarantee victory. That's my favorite thing about a State fan, if it's a 50-50 game, then they are certain they'll win it!
Heels20, please. NC State
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:09 — awdracerHeels20, please. NC State has pulled up your skirt and had it's way with you for the last two years. And no amount of quarterback ratings, or recruiting rankings (which UNC fans are so fond of) is going to change the outcome this year.
Rant on, my friend. It won't help. Austin might have a breakout year and actually get TWO sacks. It won't help. Yates might actually recover to be as good as he was as a FR. It won't help. As long as Davis is there all the recruiting stars in the world won't help. Your defense won't live up to the recruiting hype because the fact of the matter is that Black Santa can't coach either. Your offensive line is paper thin and you are one twisted ankle away from having to give the keys to your offense to "The Ringleader". BWAHAHAHAHA
Also, thank you for showing the world YOUR lack of bias. It was refreshing. Truly.
Hook. Line. Sinker.
How am I showing bias when
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:43 — Heels20How am I showing bias when I give NC State the head-to-head edge next year? It's like you don't even read my posts. I simply don't understand how an overall season record means less than ONE GAME, that just so happened to be our worst game of the season and your best. Many State fans make EVERY SINGLE JUDGMENT off best case scenario for State and worst case for Carolina. That is the definition of bias.
awdracer, weren't you the one that said you only watched one UNC game last year? You lack all credibility after the inaccurate statistics you've provided, such as Carolina having the worst defense in the conference. You also talk about Yates' injuries when Wilson suffered 3 or 4 different injuries last year. You talk about our O-line being paper thin, but your starters are already terrible. You want to argue that? Then why did Andre Brown, a significantly more talented runningback than Shaun Draughn, have few yards than Draughn last season? Why is it that a pocket passer hasn't survived in your offense since 2003, despite your highly-touted QBs such as 4-star players in Marcus Stone and Harrison Beck? YOUR OFFENSIVE LINE IS GARBAGE.
As someone who watched every single Carolina game, and at least a half of every single State game (was even at the W&M, FSU and Wake games), I can tell you that UNC was the more consistent team throughout the season. We get blown out one time the entire year, while the Pack getting blown out seemed to be a regular thing the first half of the season. State fans look at the schedule and assume Carolina will go 6-6, even though there's really only 6 games that we could possibly lose. But when you look at State, well oh, they'll win every game that's 50-50.
I respect the comments of guys like JPDOhio, and occasionally willncsu and mad_max. You should learn something from then before you go running your mouth about a team you know nothing about.
Of course
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 13:21 — bradleyb123Of course Carolina was more consistent. You didn't have the crazy degree of injuries at skill positions that we had. We had the fourth-highest injury total of any team in the nation last year. It's kinda hard to win when your best players are on crutches on the sidelines.
A healthy NC State was better than a healthy Carolina without a doubt last year. And will be again this year.
I don't understand...
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 17:44 — Heels20Our injuries made the difference between an 8-5 record and a 12-1 record. Take away Wilson and Irving's injuries, and you still lose many more than 2 games....
Skill Positions
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 14:59 — SurferYep, it is a good thing that UNC did not have any injuries at the skill posiions.....Oh wait, Yates, Tate and Pinalto were out, but I guess they don't count for skill positions?
Actually, I think that these
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:52 — awdracerActually, I think that these Heel fans have convinced me.
1) The WORST defense in the conference will suddenly become the best because of recruiting rankings.
2) Yates is better than Wilson because of his QB rating.
3) The team with the fewest sacks in the league last year is finally going to start getting to the QB.
4) Hakeem Nicks and the entire rest of the receiving corps can be replaced because that is the "easiest" position to fill in.... even though we're talking about a program with ONE 1000 yard receiver... IN....ITS....HISTORY. I guess Little is going to have to lead this charge instead of playing LB where he belongs.
5) The "chemistry" problems at the QB position will be resolved. Oh, OK. Unfortunately those problems will be resolved because the best QB in your program decided to roll. If Yates gets a hangnail, you guys will be down to "The Ringleader". Good luck with that.
But, like I said.... I believe you.
Why awdracer would be
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 09:15 — Heels20Why awdracer would be better off keeping his mouth shut:
1. We were 6th in scoring defense and 32nd in the nation. I said we would have one of the best defenses. Considering we were close to the top in the nation last season in interceptions, I don't know where you came up with us being the worst defense...
2. I never said Yates is better. I said he had a better passer rating to prove to Wolfpack fans that he's not nearly as bad as they say he is. You throw all this stuff out there like "oh you at your frisbee throwing QB!" That's straight up classless. It's not like Carolina fans come on here saying "State might be okay as long as their LBs don't go out driving!" And what about Wilson's 4 injuries last year? It's not like he's the most durable QB.
3. Well, Donte Moss steps in as the #8 overall recruit in the country and looks EXACTLY like Manny Lawson. Even then, our defense made up for lack of sacks last year with the number of interceptions.
4. Wow you really have trouble reading. I straight up said that Nicks CANNOT be replaced. Leave it to a wolfpacker to put words in my mouth. I said that we have a lot of young talent stepping in at WR that will adjust and keep our offense from slipping, as our running game will improve.
5. Have you ever played or coached football? You sound like a drunken moron in the Carter-Finley parking lot rambling about how Carolina will go 3-9, with absolutely no reasoning to back it up. Chemistry problems come when you switch from a QB that throws on the run to a QB that's a pocket passer. Remember how the Pack did last year with their pocket passers? And explain to me how Sexton was better than Yates when Yates had the better passer rating?
Sorry, bud. The Valvano curse still exists. I haven't been around long enough to know if the stupidity came with the curse or if it was already there. But keep on walking around with that undeserved sense of accomplishment. 6-7 is clearly better than 8-5 and the three blowouts you suffered last year meant nothing, even though our one blowout last year meant everything. Biased much?
All bias aside
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:25 — wolfpackcaniacThis is how I see the '09 season:
Heels with a 7-5 record. But possible 1 game swing either way (6-6 or 8-4).
Pack with 8-4 record with range of 9-3 (best case) to 6-6 (worst case).
Just hard to predict with so many bounces and injuries that could make or break a season, but it comes down to a team game and thats just the way I feel it shaking out.
Overall 2 very even teams, with the Pack having the advantage on potential for over-achieving.
Maybe this is bias now, but I stongly believe that Heels fans should not get their hopes up and expect to win in Carter-Finley however. At Chapel Hill its a toss up, in Raleigh odds are on Pack. UNC can still have a good (maybe great) season without a win in Raleigh, but I just can't see a win there for the blues.
We as fans probably can't reach an agreement on much of anything at this point, but is has been semi-enjoyable to read the bantering.
Yep, that's about how I see
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:53 — HeHateMeTooYep, that's about how I see it.
Some have problems with stating predications and/or expectations as emphatic statements of truth.
When challenges are provided with reasoned thought and facts, wildly flung reactionary acquisitions start spewing forth attacking claims that were never made.
Amazing.
Toughest place to play
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:52 — Heels20Yes, we know about that hostile environment at Carter Finley that yielded a 3-3 record last year against D-1A opponents. Hasn't State only beaten Carolina twice at Carter Finley since 1991?
I look at our schedule and see 6 possible losses: ECU, GT, FSU, VT, Miami and NCSU. We have the potential to win them all, or lose them all. So the most fair way I see it is to go 50-50. 9-3 is a realistic expectation. Except with "all bias aside," we should lose 5 of the 6. Explain that to me.
I look at State's schedule, and there are 7 games that State could lose ASSUMING Russell Wilson stays healthy. 8-4 or 9-3 is realistic. Still don't see how that makes State a much better team than Carolina, or even a better team...
Hey, we agree! However...
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:27 — HeHateMeTooHey, we agree!
However... the atmosphere at C/F really has changed a great deal since the 'bowl' was completed.
I've been going to games since the 80's - the current version of C/F (facilities and atmosphere) is in a different world than what is was... it's what got us TOB, as he and Bobby Bowden both pronounced that year that the atmosphere in C/F, post upgrades, was at or better that than of any stadium either had ever played.
But darn it, if only we could get more pine trees. Heather, can you help?
If I remember correctly...
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:46 — Heels20The stadium was bowled in before the 2006 season. State's home record since then (Division 1-A opponents):
2006: 2-4
2007: 2-4
2008: 3-3
Yes, your fans get drunk and yell loud. Sometimes they even open fire in the parking lot before a big game against Richmond. The noise doesn't help when your fans are too dumb to know not to scream when your offense is on the field. But hey, looks like that bowling in really helped out.
Meaningless
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 13:27 — bradleyb123You presented numbers from Amato's LAST year (2006), and TOB's first two years (2007, 2008), both of which are considered rebuilding years, and both of which were marred by tremendous injury losses.
Talk about viewing State in a worst-possible scenario situation. Like someone said above, that's the epitome of bias.
btw, as bad as 2007 was, we had no problem beating Carolina up and down the field. The score was MUCH closer than the game was actually played, which happens sometimes. btw, the 41-10 score last year could have been even worse, too. We blew several early scoring opportunities. As bad as 41-10 sounds, Carolina should probably be glad that was the final score.
Congrats, you beat a 4-8
Mon, 08/24/2009 - 17:46 — Heels20Congrats, you beat a 4-8 Carolina team at Carter Finley in 2007. We might as well call it the toughest place to play. How am I biased? Someone mentioned how tough C-F has been since it got bowled in, so I provided the records of each year since it was bowled in. I guess you can't handle a rational counter-argument when you only see things through red-tinted sunglasses.
Fair analysis
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:40 — JPDOhioBoth teams have enough question marks that luck (good or bad) and injuries (sustained or avoided) will affect the outcome.
I don't know how it is going to end up, but it definitely will be a fun ride.
As usual
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:52 — Heels20I agree 100%
Thanks!
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:55 — wolfpackcaniacThanks!
hmm
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:07 — wolfpackcaniacBiased much?
Where?
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:44 — Heels20I stated facts...
bias
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:52 — wolfpackcaniacGood sir, you are gonna see things the way you see them. Facts they may be, or not - that is inconsequential really (you will argue most likely... try to get beyond this to understand completely)
Choosing which facts to include and which to not also represents bias. Your post was bias (even though you were trying to denounce bias). My attempt at an objective prediction might also have been biased, however it is my opinion and I tried.
Enough of this objective crap, you are biased, I am biased, everyone - JPG too :) - is biased. Take it for what it is.
Back to the top 25 discussion?
unc homer
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:57 — russwufheels20...ok so we get it that you are all about some tarheels...but you truly grasp for straws when you come up with "yates had a higher Qb rating" crap.....come on get real. Wilson was first team all ACC qb as a rookie ..the first EVER....EVER. The ACC has seen some great QBs over its history but not one was a rookie first team all acc until Wilson. UNC will continue to be known as the graveyard of QBs hopefuls....can anyone say Curry?
russwuf
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 09:05 — Heels20Okay I don't see how that's relevant to what I said. Your fellow wolfpacker took a shot at our QB and I defended him with with a legitimate stat. I wasn't saying Yates was better than Wilson, but simply stated that he was ranked higher in a significant statistical category. It's not at all a jab at Wilson, but more of just an emphasis on how much better Yates is than State fans give him credit for.
Haha... I was the one
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:44 — HeHateMeTooHaha... I was the one that you say "took a shot" at your QB.
However, it was not a shot at his ability or qualtiy of play. I actually think Yates is a solid QB, and as I have stated before...
had Yates been healthy all year in 2008, and/or if Davis hadn't bungled the QB situation once Yates was healthy, UNC would have beaten State and probably had a 10 or 11 win season.
To have a special season like that, a team needs to catch some breaks... UNC was catching them, but injuries and coaching bungles more than canceled them out.
The "shot" I took at Yates was regarding his toughness and propensity to injury. I think the reference was "frisbee playing QB". As a State fan, I'm well versed in talking injuries.
Pot, meet kettle
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:57 — Heels20I knew exactly what you were saying. I just find it interesting that a fan of a team led by a QB who went down with multiple injuries last year would point out QB durability as a disadvantage of another team in a head-to-head game. The two cancel each other out when it comes to durability.
Davis didn't insert Yates just because he was healthy. We lost in the previous week to Maryland. Everyone knew Yates was the better QB when at his best and that he'd be the starter this season. The change hurt us bad in the short-term, but leaves us with a confident QB in the long-term. Unlike a State fan, I like to reflect on the season as a whole, not just one game against a team where many fans don't even consider us a rival.
Hey Dunderhead... I was
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:44 — HeHateMeTooHey Dunderhead...
I was not using it as evidence to claim NC State is better than UNC. It was just one example of the facts that should be considered while considering UNC's potential success in 2008. Never did I bring up the QB situation of UNC as it compares to NC State.
Now if you wanted to judge the QB situation head-to-head, then some, if not most, would rank NC State's QB situation better than UNC's. In fact, most publications have... Going into 2009, NC State is graded with the best QB unit in the ACC by most publications.
Now don't get your panties in a bunch again.. note I never made a claim myself. I am again simply providing an argument, and using as supporting evidence, the non-bais conclusions of most national college football publications.
And I agree that Russell
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:51 — Heels20And I agree that Russell Wilson is a better QB. That is not up for debate. I just think it's interesting how State fans constantly bring up an injury that TJ Yates suffered when he didn't miss a single game from it.
It's not interesting....
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:20 — HeHateMeTooIt's not interesting.... haven't you heard? Misery loves company. :) It's more commiseration than accusation.
So, only the UCONN QB was
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:01 — awdracerSo, only the UCONN QB was out?
That's cool. My memory fails. The only UNC game I saw was the State game. What an AW that was.
anyway, who said something about Marvin Austin. Good grief. Talk about overrated. He had ONE sack last year on a defense that was last in the ACC in sacks. Weak sauce.
I wish someone could give me ONE single reason that UNC is better than State that doesn't involve (ahem) recruiting rankings.
One reason
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:04 — Heels20Overall record.
Heel20, When UNC beat GT
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 20:25 — awdracerHeel20,
When UNC beat GT wasn't the GT QB injured?
When UNC beat UCONN wasn't that QB injured as well?
You guys caught a lot of breaks last year. It all ran dry when you played the Pack, though. Expect more of the same in the last game of the season this year. Your offense is TRULY going to suck.
GT's QB was healthy. UCONN
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 20:26 — Heels20GT's QB was healthy. UCONN was led by their RB, Donald Brown, who was also healthy. Neither game was close.
UNC
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 20:16 — joegiglio (author)http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/summer-kickoff-part-iii
Here's what I wrote in the UNC preview, it should explain why they're not in the top 25.
As for any alleged bias, or lack of research — or attending games — it's hard for anyone to convince me that UNC is better than N.C. State when I watched N.C. State beat UNC 41-10.
Or that UNC finished the season with one win in their final four games.
In addition, it's not like the N.C. State team that finished the season is the one that started it, due to injuries and Russell Wilson's own inexperience.
— JPG
I understand and respect
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 20:30 — Heels20I understand and respect your analysis, but I think you're assuming best-case scenario for State, and worst-case scenario for Carolina. How do I back that up? Your best reasoning is that one game. That game was State's best of the year, and UNC's worse. It would be like me saying Carolina is so much better because we beat Rutgers by 32 and State lost to USF 41-10.
As far as the end of the season goes, State had a bye week followed by Dook to recover. TJ Yates came back in his first game against an NC State team that was at its peak of the season. It's not like this UNC team suddenly fell apart at the end of the year. Chemistry problems come up when there's a QB contraversy. Wolfpack fans of all should know that.
"Chemistry problems come up
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:20 — HeHateMeToo"Chemistry problems come up when there's a QB contraversy."
Yep, all caused by a bungling Butch Davis. Butch can assembles talent, and out recruit his opponents, but rarely does he out coach them on Saturdays.
You're right
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:33 — Heels20I guess that explains his 4-2 record over TOB. As Jim Calhoun would say, GET SOME FACTS, and come back and see me.
Serioulsy? Your moronic,
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:35 — HeHateMeTooSerioulsy? Your moronic, stupid, childish, and uniformed retorts are really getting tiresome.
I never said Davis did not win. I did not say he NEVER outcoached his opponents. What I did say was that he RARELY outcoached his opponents on SATURDAYS? Is English your second language and you're still struggling with reading comprehension, or are you just stupid?
A proper response would have been to provide examples of Davis outcoaching an opponent on game day. In all of his years in coaching, can you name 3?
I'll help... just provide an example when a Davis coached team was more than a 3 point dog and his coaching lead to an upset victory? I'm sure there's a few examples out there, but not many.
I'll even give you your first example, 2nd game last year vs Rutgers, though I don't think Davis' coaching, per se, had much to do with that game's outcome, given that Rutgers outgained the 'Heels and was 0-4 in turnovers. But we'll count it just the same... so, 2 more to go...
While compiling that expansive list, how about thinking about this... how many times has a Davis coached team lost when favored by 3 points or more? Hmm.... I can name 4 from just last year: Va Tech (though some lines had UNC favored by only 1 or 2), Virginia, Maryland, NC State.
UM vs ucla #2 in 1998
Sun, 08/23/2009 - 21:23 — gvillegatrstands out pretty vivid in mind. they were dogs at home, last game of the year b/c it was moved from way early in the season due to a hurricane. Edge James ran for over 300 yds and Miami won the game as a dog.
after beating ucla, they went on to double up a certain "triangle" school, who is long in agriculture, in a bowl game, 46-23.
Miami also went to WVa that season and won.
two of those were dog games and one prolly was not.
thye opened up in DUIke East, East Rutherford, NJ against (t)osu and beat them. beat BC on the road. beat GT in the Gator Bowl.
those are prolly 3 other dog games they won.
in 2000, they my have been a dog in Seattle, WA but lost.
Stupid and childish? THEY
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:49 — Heels20Stupid and childish? THEY ARE FACTS. You talk like Butch can't coach. We were hardly ever the underdog last year, but I'll give you some examples:
We were 8-point underdog against Miami, 4.5 against Rutgers (as you mentioned). We were slightly favored over GT, but it the 28-7 blowout was an example of how Butch out-coached Paul Johnson. Beating Donald Brown and UConn 38-12 with our back-up QB maybe, JUST MAYBE had a little something to do with coaching.
Your VT stat was BS because that was right after VT lost to ECU, the odds would obviously be in our favor. Maryland, we weren't out coached, we were playing in knee-deep water. You act like Butch is nothing more than a recruiter, which only further advertises your ignorance. We won close games against Miami and ND, and blew out 4 teams (Rutgers, UConn, GT and BC) that we should not have blown out. Did you even watch UNC football last year, or did you just watch them on November 22?