JP Top 25: Preseason

Note: J.P. Giglio is one of 60 voters in the AP Top 25.

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The last time the defending national champion was the overwhelming preseason No. 1 was 2005.

That's also the last season the national title game was played at the Rose Bowl.

Now let's connect the dots: Texas derailed Southern California in the Rose Bowl after ESPN spent a month declaring the Trojans, AP champs in 2003 and '04, the "Greatest Team Ever."

The media love-affair with USC is going to look like Glasnost compared to what we're about to embark on with Florida and quarterback Tim Tebow.

It's not that Florida isn't great — two titles in three years tend end such arguments to the contrary — it's just harder to keep egos in check when everyone tells you how great you are. Just ask the '05 Trojans, whose pursuit of a third straight AP title was undone by a motivated Texas team with a great quarterback.

Mack Brown has the Longhorns — which watched Oklahoma play for the national title, despite beating the Sooners during the regular season — in the same spot to knock off the defending champ this season.

"That ['05] team really took those expectations to heart," Brown said earlier this summer. "I'm seeing this team do the same thing."

Says here, history will repeat itself.

1. Texas
2008 record: 12-1
Key games: vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 17), @ Oklahoma State (Oct. 31)

Bottom line: There are a lot of reasons to like the Longhorns — they have 16 starters back from a team that went 12-1, they have a palatable schedule — but motivation is the one that stands out.

QB Colt McCoy completed 76.7 percent of his passes, threw for 34 touchdowns and ran for 11 more but wasn't so much as an all-conference pick. This team has something to prove and you can expect the Horns to play like it.

2. Florida
2008 record: 13-1
Key games: @ LSU (Oct. 10), vs. Georgia (Oct. 31)

Bottom line: There's no reason to think the Gators, with every starter on defense back, plus '07 Heisman winner QB Tim Tebow, won't win every game they play, except in the past 60 years, nobody has won the AP title three times in four years.

Of course, Urban Meyer wasn't coaching any of those teams, so. Forget for a second the two titles in three years, Meyer has completely wiped Florida State and Miami off the national landscape. Given where those three programs were in 1999, that's more impressive than the titles.

3. Oklahoma
2008 record: 12-2
Key games: vs. BYU (Sept. 5), vs. Texas (Oct. 17), Oklahoma State (Nov. 28)

Bottom line: No idea why QB Sam Bradford, who would have been the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, is still playing football for free (possible donations from a Norman car dealership aside) but the Sooners couldn't be happier with his decision.

There are some questions on the offensive line, and quietly about the running game, but Bob Stoops just keeps the machine rolling ... until he hits a BCS bowl, loser of five straight.

4. USC
2008 record: 12-1
Key games: @ Ohio State (Sept. 12), @ Cal (Oct. 3), @ Oregon (Oct. 31)

Bottom line: Remember when the University of Miami would pump out player after player to the NFL and just keep on winning? The new "U" has an "SC" on the end.

The defense is reloading but the offense returns nine starters and even if Aaron Corp isn't ready, freshman Matt Barkley or Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain aren't bad backup options at quarterback.

5. Ole Miss
2008 record: 9-4
Key games: Alabama (Oct. 10), LSU (Nov. 21)

Bottom line: Typically, media darlings like Ole Miss get a nosebleed and fall flat on their face but the Rebs have certified talent in QB Jevan Snead and RB Dexter McCluster and an SEC schedule that does not include Florida or Georgia.

Ed Orgeron couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag but he could recruit and Houston Nutt made hay with that talent in '08 and will push the Rebs to the SEC West division title in '09.

6. Georgia
2008 record: 10-3
Key games: @ Oklahoma State (Sept. 5), LSU (Oct. 3), vs. Florida (Oct. 31)

Bottom line: The Dawgs were never as good as their press clippings last year. They lose QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, a pair of first-round picks, but the offensive line is in better shape and the defense returns eight starters.

Mark Richt does his best work when his team lurks under the radar, which won't be long since they'll beat Oklahoma State in the opener.

7. Cal
2008 record: 9-4
Key games: @ Oregon (Sept. 26), USC (Oct. 3), Oregon State (Nov. 7)

Bottom line: The Bears have been on the edge of greatness before, winning 10 games in '04 and '06. They'll be in the neighborhood again with RB Jahvid Best (1,580 yards) and Jeff Tedford's usual creativity on offense.

Best, an experienced defense and a home game with USC gives the Bears a puncher's chance at knocking off the Trojans and an outside track to the national title.

8. Virginia Tech
2008 record: 10-4
Key games: Alabama (Sept. 5), @ Georgia Tech (Oct. 17), UNC (Oct. 29)

Bottom line: It's not how you start but how you finish. Luckily for VT, no one seems to remember how much they struggled at the start of 2008 (losing to ECU), only the strong finish, which included a pasting of Boston College in the ACC title game and a 20-7 win over Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.

The Hokies shouldn't need the same grade-on-a-curve kindness this season with as much experience (15 starters) and momentum — five straight 10-win seasons, three ACC titles — as it has, despite the loss of leading rusher Darren Evans (1,265 yards) to injury.

The offense has to get better, and should be with a clear option at quarterback (Tyrod Taylor) and three veterans on the line. The defense is the defense, which should be enough for another ACC crown.

9. Oklahoma State
2008 record: 9-4
Key games: Georgia (Sept. 5), Texas (Oct. 31), @ Oklahoma (Nov. 28)

Bottom line: In 2007, Missouri jumped from nowhere to No. 1 in the country, the week of the Big 12 title game. In '08, Texas Tech climbed to No. 2, in November.

The random Big 12 team to leap into the top 10 in '09? Good guess. The Cowboys have the triplet thing down with QB Zac Robinson (3,064 yards, 25 TDs), RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 yards) and WR Dez Bryant (1,480 yards) but they need to work on the whole defense thing.

Like Mizzou and TT, the Pokes can drive for show but can't putt for dough, yielding 56, 61 and 42 points in three of their final four games.

10. LSU
2008 record: 8-5
Key games: @ Georgia (Oct. 3), Florida (Oct. 10), @ Alabama (Nov. 7)

Bottom line: The Tigers had no excuse for losing five games, especially to Arkansas, but to Les Miles' credit, he got his team ready for the Peach Bowl and unleashed the fury on Georgia Tech.

That same spirit will have to be carried over in a tougher-than-usual SEC West, which includes a juggernaut in Ole Miss and, of course, the Tigers' old boss, Nick Saban at Alabama.

With just a little consistency at quarterback and on defense, the Tigers will shed two or three losses and return to the top 10 for the fourth time in five years.