JP Top 25: Preseason

J.P. Giglio is one of 65 writers who vote in the AP Top 25 poll. Here's his preseason ballot.

Let's start with Team A:

• Team A returns 19 starters from an 11-2 team that played for the national championship.
• Team A led the nation in scoring defense, allowing less than two touchdowns per game.
• Team A lost only one first-round draft pick.
• Team A returns a rusher with 1,600 yards and its conference's top-rated quarterback.
• Team A added the No. 1 recruit in college football.

That's the resume of the No. 1 team in college football but since Team A is The Ohio State, and the baggage that comes with losing consecutive BCS title games, the Buckeyes are being dismissed. Mistake.

I hear you, SEC fans, your conference is the best and has won two consecutive national titles. That point is not being disputed here. But what's often overlooked in the SEC rhetoric is both Florida, in 2006, and LSU, in 2007, needed extraordinary upsets just to get a ticket to the BCS Championship Game.

What if the SEC doesn't get so lucky this year, or can't produce a one-loss team — LSU was the first AP national champion with two losses and the AP poll dates back to 1936? If either scenario happens, the SEC will be watching Ohio State and Oklahoma play for the national title on Jan. 8 in Miami.

1. Ohio State

2007 record: 11-2
Coach: Jim Tressel, eighth season (73-16 @ Ohio State)
Key games: @ USC (Sept. 13), @ Wisconsin (Oct. 4), @ Michigan State (Oct. 18), @ Illinois (Nov. 15)
Why they're here: The key to OSU's season isn't the known, RB Beanie Wells (1,609 yards) or the defense, but the unknown, freshman QB Terrelle Pryor.

In 2006, QB Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy leading OSU's offense. If even a portion of the Internet accounts are accurate, Pryor's bigger and faster than Smith.

Pryor, who's 6-6, will also have the luxury of sharing time with a senior, Todd Boeckman (2,379 yards, 25 TDs). Florida enjoyed a similar QB arrangement in 2006. The Gators season ended with the national title. So will Ohio State's.

2. Georgia

2007 record: 11-2
Coach: Mark Richt, eighth season (72-19 @ UGa)
Key games: @ Arizona State (Sept. 20), @ LSU (Oct. 25), Florida (Nov. 1), @ Auburn (Nov. 15)
Why they're here: Georgia's another team coming off an 11-2 season with a ton of talent, 17 starters, coming back, notably sophomore RB Knowshon Moreno (1,334 yards, 15 TDs). UGa also has one of the game's best coaches in coach Mark Richt, certainly the best one without a national title.

The Dawgs do have questions at receiver and on the offensive line, where tackle Trinton Sturdivant was injured in the preseason.  The biggest concern is the schedule. Forget the Arizona State game, that won't be a contest, it's the four-game stretch away from Sanford Stadium, beginning Oct. 25 at LSU and ending Nov. 15 at Auburn that stands as the biggest obstacle between UGa and its first national title since 1980.

3. Oklahoma

2007 record: 11-3
Coach: Bob Stoops, 10th season (92-22 @ Oklahoma)
Key games: Texas (Oct. 11), Kansas (Oct. 18), Texas Tech (Nov. 22)
Why they're here: In his first season as the starter, QB Sam Bradford threw for 36 TDs and eight interceptions. Which direction do you think those numbers are going in his second season with the return of his entire offensive line and top receiver?

The knock on the Sooners, like Ohio State, is the BCS. They have lost four straight BCS bowls, including back-to-back BCS title games in 2003 and 2004. If the six new starters on defense can keep up with the offense, maybe Oklahoma will get the chance to play Ohio State in the BCS. Then one of them would have to win.

4. Florida

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Urban Meyer, fourth season (31-8 @ Florida)
Key games: @ Tennessee (Sept. 20), LSU (Oct. 11), Georgia (Nov. 1), @ Florida State (Nov. 29)
Why they're here: Tim Tebow ran for 23 TDs and threw for 32 in winning the Heisman Trophy in 2007. Those are unbelievable numbers. Here's the one that concerns Urban Meyer — 210. That's how many rushing attempts the quarterback had, 106 more than anyone else on the roster.

If Meyer can find help for Tebow, USC transfer RB Emmanuel Moody might fit the bill, the Gators have the experience and talent to win a second national title in three years.
Their schedule is more forgiving than Georgia's but their defense isn't as strong.

5. USC

2007 record: 11-2
Coach: Pete Carroll, eighth season (76-14 @ USC)
Key games: Ohio State (Sept. 13)
Why they're here: Only the Trojans could lose their quarterback, leading rusher, four starters on the offensive line and five draft picks off their defense and still begin the season ranked No. 5.
That's how much talent Pete Carroll has stocked in Hollywood, especially on defense with LB Rey Maualuga and S Kevin Ellison as the next in a long line of future NFL stars.

The Ohio State game on Sept. 13 might determine their season but missed steps in the Pac-10 — against Stanford in 2007 and UCLA in 2006 — that have kept the Trojans out of the BCS title game since 2005.

6. Missouri

2007 record: 12-2
Coach: Gary Pinkel, eighth season (49-37 @ Mizzou)
Key games: Illinois (Aug. 30), @ Nebraska (Oct. 4), @ Texas (Oct. 18), Kansas (Nov. 29)
Why they're here: QB Chase Daniel and WR Jeremy Maclin exploded in Gary Pinkel's offense, which averaged nearly 40 points a game. They're both back, along with eight starters on defense.
A year after getting burnt by the BCS — the Tigers beat Illinois and Kansas but watched both play in BCS bowls while they destroyed Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl — the Tigers would love bypass the process and go straight to Miami. Oklahoma, which beat Mizzou twice in 2007, will have something to say about that.

7. Clemson

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Tommy Bowden, 10th season (69-42 @ Clemson)
Key games: Alabama (Aug. 30), @ Wake Forest (Oct. 9), @ Florida State (Nov. 8), South Carolina (Nov. 29)
Why they're here: There's enough skill on offense in RB James Davis, RB C.J. Spiller, QB Cullen Harper and do-everything Jacoby Ford to win the national title. The defense is strong, too.
The problem is four new starters on the offense live and the Tigers' propensity to lose games they're not supposed to. The first ACC title since 1991 should be enough to appease the fan base.

8. South Florida

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Jim Leavitt, 12th season (52-30 @ USF)
Key games: Kansas (Sept. 13), @ Cincinnati (Oct. 30), @ West Virginia (Dec. 6)
Why they're here: QB Matt Grothe's good and so is the defense, which returns seven starters. The Bulls should have learned a lesson last season's 3-4 finish after starting 6-0, and reaching No. 2 in the Top 25. Humbled and experienced, the Bulls have the tools to dethrone West Virginia as the Big East champs.

9. Auburn

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Tommy Tuberville, 10th season (80-33 @ Auburn)
Key games: LSU (Sept. 20), @ West Virginia (Oct. 23), Georgia (Nov. 15), @ Alabama (Nov. 29)

Why they're here: Their offensive line returns in tact as does their top four rushers. The Tigers will have a new look on offense, going to the spread option with Kodi Burns. That transition might not be as smooth as Auburn fans hope but the talent and speed give the Tigers the best chance to win the SEC West.

10. West Virginia

2007 record: 11-2
Coach: Bill Stewart, first season
Key games: @ ECU (Sept. 6), @ Colorado (Sept. 18), Auburn (Oct. 23), USF (Dec. 6)
Why they're here: Will West Virginia be UNC, which went 7-5 the year after Mack Brown left a top-10 program and a popular assistant was promoted to head coach, or Miami, which went 12-0 and won the national title the year after Butch Davis left a top-10 program and a popular assistant was promoted to head coach?

Carl Torbush didn't have QB Pat White (1,335 rushing yards) or RB Noel Devine (8.6 yards per carry). The Neers will eventually miss departed and reviled former coach Rich Rodriguez, and might even be calling for him if Bill Stewart loses at Colorado on Sept. 18, but they're in good position to repeat as Big East champions.

11. Kansas

2007 record: 12-1
Coach: Mark Mangino, seventh season (37-36 @ Kansas)
Key games: @ USF (Sept. 12), @ Oklahoma (Oct. 18), Texas Tech (Oct. 25), Missouri (Nov. 29)
Why they're here: QB Todd Reesing (3,486 yards, 33 TDs) is back to lead a Jayhawks offense which averaged 42 points per game in 2007. The defense, while not the reason Kansas was the only BCS team with one loss, does return nine starters.

Kansas will miss RB Brandon McAnderson and the 2007 schedule. After a year off the Big 12 schedule, the Jayhawks pick back up Oklahoma and Texas. A Sept. 12 trip to South Florida will also be no picnic.

12. LSU

2007 record: 12-2
Coach: Les Miles, fourth season (34-6 @ LSU)
Key games: Appalachian State (Aug. 30), @ Auburn (Sept. 20), @ Florida (Oct. 11), Georgia (Oct. 25)
Why they're here: The defending champs lost seven players to the NFL and troubled QB Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team. Their defense will be exceptional, though, and will be good enough to win some early games as rookie QB Andrew Hatch figures it out.

The cupboard is by no means bare for Les Miles but with crossover games with Florida and Georgia — and keep in mind they went 6-2 in the SEC last year — the Tigers are just the second-best team in the SEC West, and Alabama might have something to say about that.

13. Texas Tech

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Mike Leach, ninth season (65-37 @ TT)
Key games: @ Kansas (Oct. 25), Texas (Nov. 1), @ Oklahoma (Nov. 22)
Why they're here: The Red Raiders are a victim of their own success on offense. They put up such big numbers — without turning those numbers into meaningful victories — that there's a tendency to dismiss their statistics. In WR Michael Crabtree's case, he deserves a hat-tip after catching 134 passes for 1,962 yards and 22 touchdowns.

He'll have QB Graham Harrell back to throw him the ball and 18 total starters from a team that went 9-4. Is this the year TT breaks through in the Big 12 South? Nah, but they're in line for Leach's first 10-win season.

14. Wisconsin

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Bret Bielema, third season (21-5 @ Wisconsin)
Key games: @ Fresno State (Sept. 13), Ohio State (Oct. 4), Penn State (Oct. 11), @ Michigan State (Nov. 1)
Why they're here: Another team with a gajillion starters back and winning experience — Bret Bielema's 21-5 since replacing Barry Alvarez. Big P.J. Hill (1,212 yards) should get a look at the Big Ten rushing title behind a line with four returning starters. A new quarterback has to be found and be functional by Sept. 13 when the Badgers go to Fresno State, but it should be another 9- or 10-win season for Bielema's crew.

15. Penn State

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season (372-125-3 @ PSU)
Key games: @ Wisconsin (Oct. 11), Michigan (Oct. 18), @ Ohio State (Oct. 25)
Why they're here: The last time Penn State ran the spread option, it won the Big Ten and the Orange Bowl. Daryll Clark might not be Michael Robinson at quarterback but he won't be Anthony Morelli either. That's a good trade for the Nits, who went 9-4 in 2007 by beating the really bad teams and losing to the good teams on their schedule.

Given Michigan's tumult, perhaps JoePa can finally knock off the Big Blue — he better, the game's in Happy Valley — but road trips to Madison and Columbus offer little hope of climbing past third in the Big Ten.

16. Alabama

2007 record: 7-6
Coach: Nick Saban, second season (7-6 @ Alabama)
Key games: Clemson (Aug. 30), @ Georgia (Sept. 27), @ LSU (Nov. 8), Auburn (Nov. 29)
Why they're here: Alabama poured everything it had into the LSU game last year, and almost beat Nick Saban's former team before losing 41-34. Then the Tide forgot to show up for the final three games, including an embarrassing home loss to Louisiana-Monroe.

Point being, Alabama was a pretty good team before the LSU game — 6-2 with wins over Tennessee and Arkansas — and will be again, especially in Saban's second season.

17. Texas

2007 record: 10-3
Coach: Mack Brown, 11th season (103-25 @ Texas)
Key games: Oklahoma (Oct. 11), Missouri (Oct. 18), @ Texas Tech (Nov. 1), @ Kansas (Nov. 15)
Why they're here: Mack Brown has won at least 10 games for seven straight seasons at Texas. More than any team with Vince Young, last year's team was a one-man gang with Jamaal Charles rushing for 1,619 yards and 18 TDs. Maybe, and this is not a knock on Charles, the Horns will be better because they'll be more balanced. Colt McCoy's entering his third year as the starter and has to cut down on his interceptions (he threw 18 last year). If he does that, the talent is there for an eighth straight season with at least 10 wins.

18. Illinois

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Ron Zook, fourth season (13-23 @ Illinois)
Key games: Missouri (Aug. 30), @ Penn State (Sept. 27), @ Wisconsin (Oct. 25), Ohio State (Nov. 15)
Why they're here: Illinois is going to miss Rashard Mendenhall as much as any one college team is going to miss one player, or at least as much as BC will miss Matt Ryan. As it was clear in the Rose Bowl, Mendenhall was the class of the Illini's offense. The top three tacklers need to be replaced on defense as well.

But Juice Williams is still the QB and Ron Zook gets as much out of recruiting as coach in the country. The Illini might not have Roses in its future again but it won't revert to 2-10 either.

19. Florida State

2007 record: 7-6
Coach: Bobby Bowden, 33rd season (300-87-4 @ FSU)
Key games: Wake Forest (Sept. 20), Virginia Tech (Oct. 25), Clemson (Nov. 8), Florida (Nov. 29)
Why they're here: WR Preston Parker and RB Antone Smith have old-school FSU talent. WR Greg Carr ain't bad either. The defense, which isn't the reason the program went from the top-5 to 7-6, will be business as usual. The offensive line, which lost two starters in the spring, is the real concern and has been the No. 1 reason for the Noles' decline.

A second year with coordinator Jimbo Fisher and line coach Rick Trickett should show progress for the both the line and the offense. The home schedule is there for the Noles to win nine or 10 games, maybe even knock off a top-10 team, or two (Clemson, Florida).

20. Virginia Tech

2007 record: 11-3
Coach: Frank Beamer, 22nd season (167-85-2 @ VT)
Key games: ECU (Aug. 30), @ UNC (Sept. 20), @ Nebraska (Sept. 27), @ Florida State (Oct. 25)
Why they're here: This is a transition year for Frank Beamer and the Hokies. Luckily it's a transition year in the Coastal Division where four teams are either breaking in a new coach, a new quarterback or both. A 4-8 team stands as the only obstacle between the Hokies and the ACC Championship Game. The Hokies don't need to be in '99 form to win at least 10 games for the fifth straight season.

21. Utah

2007 record: 9-4
Coach: Kyle Whittingham, fourth season (24-14 @ Utah)
Key games: @ Michigan (Aug. 30), Oregon State (Oct. 2), BYU (Nov. 22)
Why they're here: Lots of chatter about BYU but the Utes, and quarterback Brian Johnson, are ready to reclaim their Mountain West throne. The opener at Michigan, a vulnerable, depleted Michigan team which, I seem to recall, has had trouble stopping the spread option. The Utes win at the Big House and carry the momentum through the MWC schedule.

22. Arizona State

2007 record: 10-3
Coach: Dennis Erickson, second season (10-3 @ Arizona State)
Key games: Georgia (Sept. 20), @ Cal (Oct. 4), @ USC (Oct. 11), @ Washington (Nov. 8)
Why they're here: I'm not enamored of the Sun Devils, especially after they were exposed after an 8-0 start, but Dennis Erickson has talent in the desert, namely QB Rudy Carpenter and RB Keegan Herring. Besides, somebody has to finish second in the Pac-10, why not the Devils, who went 7-2 in conference play in 2007?

23. BYU

2007 record: 11-2
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall, fourth season (28-10 @ BYU
Key games: @ Washington (Sept. 6), @ Utah (Nov. 22)
Why they're here: Brigham Young is 22-4 in the past two seasons after going 11-12 the previous two seasons. With QB Max Hall and RB Harvey Unga back in Provo, the Cougs have a chance to win another 10 games. Unlike rival Utah, the Cougs don't have a traditional nonconference power on the schedule and the Cougs have to go to Utah in a game that could decide both the Mountain West and maybe a BCS bid.

24. Michigan State

2007 record: 7-6
Coach: Mark Dantonio, second season (7-6 @ Michigan State)
Key games: @ Cal (Aug. 30), Ohio State (Oct. 18), @ Michigan (Oct 25), @ Penn State (Nov. 22)
Why they're here: The schedule is tough but the Spartans have a good coach (Mark Dantonio) and a good quarterback (Brian Hoyer). Mix in running back Javon Ringer and the Spartans have the best shot of any Big Ten team to beat Ohio State. They have to figure out a way to put 12 games together, though, and not just start strong.

25. Washington

2007 record: 4-9
Coach: Ty Willingham, fourth season (11-25 @ Washington)
Key games: @ Oregon (Aug. 30), BYU (Sept. 6), Oklahoma (Sept. 13), @ USC (Nov. 1)
Why they're here: Take a look at Washington's schedule and you'll see why I'm the only voter in the AP or USA Today polls who thinks the Huskies will be worth more than a wooden nickel.

Even with that list of opponents, the Huskies will surprise. They were better than their 4-9 record last season. They gave USC and Hawaii everything they wanted and put up a fight against Ohio State.

In QB Jake Locker (2,062 passing yards, 986 rushing yards) the Huskies have their own Tim Tebow. With a veteran offensive line and the incentive of playing for their coach's job, the Huskies will make a move in a down Pac-10.