• Tudor: UNC will run the table
UNC is good, Peach Bowl good, but not BCS good.
Tudor is confused. That's what happens when you've been in this business as long as he has. He covered Notre Dame's last trip to Kenan Stadium in 1975 (the year I was born).
There's no doubt the Tar Heels are better in their second season under Butch Davis. They are winning on the road, and so far, winning the games they're supposed to. That's the sign of good coaching.
They also have playmakers, on both offense and defense. And you can't win without talent. For that, Davis is largely indebted to John Bunting.
But improvement comes in stages. And while the Heels' schedule is wide open, 9-3 is the best they'll do.
Here's why:
Let's momentarily skip what will happen and talk about what has happened.
UNC's loss was a game it led 17-3 in the second half. After a combination of turnovers and penalties, the Heels ended up losing to Virginia Tech 20-17 at home.
Great teams don't give away games, certainly not at home. And to be 11-1, no matter how easy the schedule, you have to be great.
As for where the Heels will pick up two losses, how about a split with the combination of Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech and Maryland?
That's giving them a win at Virginia, where no UNC team has won since 1981, because Saturday's 31-0 win over Maryland was Virginia's Super Bowl.
While Notre Dame and Boston College ain't as good as they once were, they're good enough to beat a still limited offensive team, especially without T.J. Yates, who will miss both games.
Shaun Draughn showed progress against UConn, running for 109 yards, but the Heels have yet to establish a consistent running game. You can win without running, if Yates is back there to sling it all over the place to Brandon Tate and Hakeem Nicks, but he's not.
The difference between Yates and Cam Sexton was obvious on the first play of the UConn game. Tate ran free behind UConn's secondary but Sexton, who was rolling out and had to make a difficult throw, missed him and an easy touchdown.
Sexton has been capable, outstanding even in the fourth quarter against Miami, but if the run gets taken away, then he has to consistently make plays, too many plays, to win games.
And then there's the improving but still young defense, which is about to get a variety of tests from capable offensive minds. UConn rushed for 168 yards on Saturday. They gained more than 4 yards per carry and for some reason tried to beat the Heels through the air.
What will Georgia Tech's running game do to UNC's defense? I can promise this, Paul Johnson won't make the same mistake UConn's coaching staff did Saturday. The Jackets will run and run some more and keep running the ball all the way back to Atlanta.
And while everyone's down on Maryland for its clunker at Virginia, the Fridge is 4-1 against the Heels.
That's a lot of "ifs", too many to add up to 11-1. At 9-3, maybe even at 8-4, the Heels would get a shot at an highly-ranked SEC team (LSU? Georgia? Florida? Alabama?) in Atlanta in the Peach Bowl. That could be a springboard to a preseason top 10 ranking in 2009.
See, progress comes in stages. Tudor should know better.
Comments
Carolina - Class of 93
Wed, 10/08/2008 - 12:18 — mikbarrettI's loves Carolina. I hopp they when all the gamez on the wrest of there skejewel.
class of 93
Wed, 10/08/2008 - 13:11 — Anonymous (not verified)are you state or ecu?
those are the schools that define enema as "not a friend"
True breakdown of 'stats' for UCONN game
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 22:06 — Anonymous (not verified)If you are gonna try to validate your point with stats, then at least look at them from a situational stand point.
The comment about the rushing defense is garbage. Take away one 60yrd run in the fourth quarter when the game had been decided. That is one play that accounted for 35.7% of their rushing yards. Before that play, what were they averaging per attempt? Before that he had 32 carries for 101 yards - 3.15 avg. And he was still getting carries on their last possesion when we were playing some back ups.
40 rushing attempts out of 84 offensive plays is hardly trying to win thru the air. And I am sure some of that had to do with being behind after the the 6 minute span in the 3rd where we put up 21 points.
Seeing NC State Fans Squirm
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 15:58 — joespinnakersreachWas worth admission in this blog as well as Tudor's. It must pain State fans that THEIR biggest rival is having succes in EVERY sport while they have zero succes other than a club fishing team. I'm sure deep down inside State fans are glad the Heels now have high hopes. The red coats are hping for a letdown. the problem is Tar Heel fans are more realistic and expect a few more losses although the hopes are up for more. I'm just stoked about making plans for a bowl game trip with the family around New Years. Jacksonville has nice weather in Jan. The bottom line is Heels fans have plenty to look forward to thru June thanks to Football, BBall and Baseball (throw in some womens sports as well) State fans on the other hand. Maybe the Pack fans can enter a few pigs, chickens and cows in the State fair this year. Stick to what you are good at.
I'm thinking about printing
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 22:36 — gvillegatrI'm thinking about printing this post out and passing it around!! maybe even put it on my fridge!! what a great post!
Geez- calm down, everybody!
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 15:24 — L.Taylor (not verified)Geez- calm down, everybody! Instead of all the 11-1, 10-2, 9-3 nonsense, why don't you just concentrate on 5-1?
seriously
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 14:13 — Anonymous (not verified)You seriously criticize football blogs for grammar
It seems there are doubters over here...
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 13:20 — UNCAlumnusand on Tudor's post. From that we can infer that the majority thinks the feat is improbable. So, when it happens the wagon will have plenty of leg room. If it doesn't happen there are a lot of "I told you so's". I'm hoping it happens. I will expect a win in every game. If it doesn't happen..the year will still be a success. At the beginning of the season no one was saying 11-1. Few were saying 10-2 or 9-3, either. Progress has and will continue to be made. UNC is good, and will only get better. That's exciting to me. I glad to see it happen.
fans weres thinking 8 wins
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 22:33 — gvillegatrfans weres thinking 8 wins and haters were thinking 6 or 7 wins. so anyhting over 8 wins will be gravy. at this juncture, today, i dont know ow you cant see at least 9. 10 is not out of the rhelm.
record
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 14:11 — Anonymous (not verified)i think 8-4 and a bowl game would be a good season. this is a young team and still learning how to win. lots of mistakes left in this team.
5-3 for the rest of the year is not good
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 18:11 — UNCAlumnusIf that happens then whatever bowl game they get will be a "let down" as in "what could have been". To start 4-1 and finish 5-3 would seem to me to be regression. I don't think that's the idea.
i like 9-3
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:25 — george32anybody remember mack's second year? 9-3 or better would be phenomenal, but in this day of ole miss winning in the swamp, southern cal losing on the road, va shutting out maryland and so on it is just too unpredicatable. what worries me more is what if a really deep-pocketed, traditional powerhouse team decides to come after butch? he has moved enough in his career to demonstrate serious ambition and does not have the ties to carolina that ol roy has-nor is the football job equal to the basketball job in terms of status and peer recognition.
1 - 10. and Btuch would
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 22:31 — gvillegatr1 - 10.
and Btuch would have left for Arkansas if he really wanted to last season. Afterall, it was his alma mater. hes at the age where you stop running unless you are not a head coach. he'll be around. UNC is one of a few schools that can piss and $h*t money. so nobody has as deep a pocket as UNC.
haha gville gatr
Wed, 10/08/2008 - 20:37 — Beamerball (not verified)No one has the money UNC does? how silly of you to think that! Ill laugh when Butchy leaves for another school. Why did Mack leave? Because ftball is an afterthought. Look at your facilities, you cant even keep the lights working. Concrete falling...... Take some of that deep pocket money and fix your facilities.
beamerball
Thu, 10/09/2008 - 23:49 — gvillegatrvalid statements my man. but this "ain't" the mid 90's and UNC looks at football a little differently now. this is a different time and of course, you know this deep down, your fretting b/c Beamer is starting to worry ... like yourself!
instead of head hunting for my commments, how bout voicing your opinion more often since this is called ACCNOW!!
Not so fast...
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 10:38 — UNCbornandbred (not verified)UNC has a great chance of going to a BCS bowl game with a record of 9-3. What other team in UNC's division is going to step up and take over that divison. It's a two horse race between the Hokies and the Tarheels. With Kenny Lewis Jr. going down for Tech and Tyrod Taylor passing for an incredible 70 yds per game, I see Va Tech's luck about to run out very soon. Remember they still have to go on the road to Boston College, Miami, and Florida State. UNC gets all of their tough matchups in Kenan for the rest of the year. I don't know about you other UNC fans, but I'm calling Southwest to see what deals I can get on flights to Tampa.
Silly......Silly UNCborn and dead............
Wed, 10/08/2008 - 20:55 — Beamer Ball (not verified)are you serious? If a qb can throw 70 yds. and still win, obviously something worked! keep worrying about the stats and we will keep worrying about wins. Please dont buy a ticket to Tampa, Id hate for you to have to watch VT and WF play while wearing your baby blue poncho. Also when you get a chance, look at your stat book , Darren Evans (HB) has 500 yards and 8 tds as compared to Kenny Lewis 200 and 3 tds. Last, before you start talking about winning the division, play more than one lucky game, in that division.... GT is going to run all over you
Blah blah
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 10:38 — bspncrJPG/CT needs to spit that smurf colored Kool aid out before you go allLeary on us.
tudor
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 08:44 — billybob baker (not verified)I'm a huge Heels fan... my problem? I never agree with Tudor.... Darn It!
Agree w/ JPG EXCEPT...
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 08:15 — BloodType THB+ (not verified)The reason UConn tried to beat the heels through the air was that they didn't have a running game. 168 yards is an illusion. They were well under 100 yards midway through the 4Q when the game was already over. Most of the additional yards came on a single run.
EXACTLY!!! Donald Brown
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 14:42 — Anonymous (not verified)EXACTLY!!! Donald Brown had a good 1st quarter, but that was about it, until he ran that 45 yarder late in the 3rd. Typically, when you are down 3 scores late in the game, you do abandon the run....
11-1?
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 00:39 — RXBailessOne thing is definatley for sure and every Heels Fan knows this deep down. UNC might finish 11-1 this season, but they won't do any better next year, because they will never beat the Hokies in Blacksburg.
I do not know that.
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 08:20 — UNCAlumnusand I'm a Tar Heel fan. Why look at a game and say "we can't win"?
I completely agree with this
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 22:29 — Tarheelfan1977 (not verified)I completely agree with this article. 8-4 or 9-3 is what i said before the season and still believe it is attainable. Where the TarHeels were before the season started any bowl game would be a sucessful season.
jpg needs to get a real job.
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 21:46 — Anonymous (not verified)jpg needs to get a real job.
Hi
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 20:36 — Anonymous (not verified)Carolina have be to colleges bowl games for yrs.It high time,
that tarheels went to colleges bowl now like oranges,
bow or sugar bow that bring big buck to ACC like carolina(UNC).Move over FSU&BC> WFU time 4 tarheels to take over the ACC crow.............
We just need to beat some good team this 08-09 football,
seasons.What every happen to peach bowl?
We have all ready have some good players on our team name brand t&others who can run&catch football down the field every saturday........
Us Carolina fans would like tarheels break lose now..
GO Heels!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wilmington,NC
Please don;t print my name in newspaper!!!
this is clearly a non UNC
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 22:25 — gvillegatrthis is clearly a non UNC fan attempting to act like a dumbarse UNC fan. what idiot, without an education, would know what this symbol (&) meant and where to put it. not too mention every word is spelled correctly!! intentional.
Wow!
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 15:11 — JPDOhioThis guy sounds like a cross between Larry the Cable Guy and Foster Brooks.
huh?
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 14:01 — Anonymous (not verified)what the heck did he say? don't print his name. i don't want to be associated with this "carolina fan".
As usual...
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 15:54 — Anonymous (not verified)The truth lies somewhere in between
Powder Blue Vision
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 15:04 — WolfpackPrideGuy (not verified)The headlines for UNC now and ECU earlier in the year are strikingly similar. Nowhere in the mix did a loss to the PACK get figured in. Where is ECU now??? Where will UNC be after the same fate??? BCS talk is best kept for the END of the year when it is DESERVED and not ASSUMED. I hope the powder blue fans' sake that Butch keeps his boys away from such things. They need to continue to go to class, get their education, and learn to think for themselves. Because for all of the accolades that they are now getting, they need to realize that they are simply today's fashionable pick, not the BCS team that has gone 11-1 and is heading for the BCS. Good Luck to the Powder Blue, it has been a long time since there was any reason to talk about Tarhole Fuutbawl. So enjoy it while it lasts, Roys boys are starting practice in a couple of weeks.
Jealous much
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 06:22 — Anonymous (not verified)I thought envy was usually green, not red! I know it's tough being a cubpack fan and having teams in the area (even DUKE) over shadow your team, but try doing what UNC and Duke have done, quit whining and do something about it! Recruit better players and hire better coaches and then maybe, just maybe the pack might turn it around! Tell then, enjoyt the time you have before the basketball season starts and the pack once again finds itself sitting on the porch with all the tall dogs run in tall cotton!
Wolfpack Pride?
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 16:14 — Big D (not verified)You should be ashamed to even venture into this discussion to criticize. You really need to worry about making sure your team can make .500. I would not put UNC into a BCS bowl even if they went 11-1 because I know they are not ready for that. However you commenting on a team being over-hyped and the fashionable pick is hilarious for them mere fact that your fan base has ridiculous expectations every year... well at least it's only you guys that feel that way. Who knows what will happen at the end of the year, but as it stands now State would not stand a chance against UNC.
Big D's Sensitivity Training
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 20:13 — WolfpackPrideGuy (not verified)Big D,
Your expert analysis earlier in the day, along with your highly intuitive response to my earlier blog makes a point that everyone who knows their ABC's has to deal with fanatic POWDER blue fans. You take criticism like a 5 year old, and your responses are along the lines of one too. Not all UNC fans are like this, thankfully, some were able to read my blog along with me at work and understand the point that I was making, and also appreciate some homespun humor (That's a joke, tarhole). In today's 24 hour news circus, the team that has just won a couple of games is that days thing. ECU was that until a certain Saturday when they were ranked #15, and lost to the Wolfpack. UNC is now that. I respect what has occurred this year for UNC football. Butch Davis is doing a good job, IF he stays, there will probably be sunnier days ahead. But anyone who is informed, as you claim to be, would understand that UNC would be NOWHERE the team that they were on Saturday if they had the injuries to deal with as the Wolfpack. Let's take your best wide receiver off the field for the year(What is his name again?), your second best wide receiver for the last couple of games(No Nicks either! Oh heavens Be!), your starting safety for the year, your starting defensive tackle (Marvin Austin, maybe) your starting middle linebacker(ole Blue eyes), , your first and second string tight ends, one of your two best running backs(For the year!), and two of your starting offensive lineman to boot. Now once the tears are dried and Butch has told you that you still have to play on Saturday, how different is your record???
That's right, 1-5 or 2-4 if your a well coached bunch of young men, with team as your priority. I will take my lumps this season as we carve out something to be proud of again. And, GOOD LUCK to you Nov 22nd. You can hope that this is your year to beat the Pack, because TOB is on the PROWL and I will take him EVERYDAY as my coach. The future is Glaringly Bright for the Pack, and IF ButchyPoo stays, you might make these rivalry games worth watching.
Oh..
Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:56 — Big D (not verified)Oh btw Wolfpack Pride, whaaaa, whaaaaa... stop all of the crying. I mean you made some good points about the injuries but dag. I agree that State probably would be doing better but man... pull yourself together.
Wolfpack Intoxication
Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:42 — Big D. (not verified)Wolfpack Pride, I hate to inform you but UNC has won most of the games between the two in football recently. I never said that State wouldn't be losing as much if it wasn't for the injuries. My point is, is that for whatever reason your team sucks right now and you look like the 5th grader criticizing someone else's team that is doing better then yours Period!
Also UNC is playing with someone who started the year out as the 3rd string. This can be viewed as just about as devastating as you losing your players. However UNC has adjusted well to the adversity this year. TOB is on the prowl give me a break! I don't wish poor luck for State, if I had my way they would be undefeated until they met.
My only point is that so many Pack fans yap and talk crap no matter how $#!tty there record is and it drives every other fan batty. I have no problem with you honestly entering into a serious discussion but to talk crap and dog UNC makes you look stupid. Think about it.
Izzy
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:51 — gvillegatrI'd expect no other kind of prediction from you. get your popcorn ready as the Wolfs have an open date!
as butchy likes to whine about...
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:47 — izzykareemthe Holes are young. No team this season has really handled newfound success, that's just part of sports. I imagine their ranking might go to their head this week and they lose to ND whom Charlie is going remind his players that they were slighted on top-25 votes and no bunch of pansy-a$$ baby blue mama's boys deserve to be ranked ahead of him after feasting on Big East has beens (at least that's the speech i'd give).
JPG, you have to bring up what happened when Greg Little decommitted to Weis and ND and what Weis texted him, that was awesome.
Then UNC-CH, who clearly has talent, will try and right the ship the next week, after they see how clearly fragile the rankings can be. My prediction
just the same old hound dog
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 05:39 — Anonymous (not verified)just the same old hound dog pack,you hate to give
credit where credit is due....you an`t seen nothing
yet....bd is going to put a hurt on the wolf pack.
Whinning
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:50 — Big D (not verified)Wow, Izzy sounds like a whining fan from a nearby school. The point is they are young, talented, and ahead of schedule. I wonder if his team can say the same thing?
Did the Alcorn State game not happen this year?
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:28 — RonBOh wait, it did.
The same players that whupped up on a overhyped (i.e. close to Bristol, Conn), decade old UConn team barely got it together to defeate a team that isn't BCS eligible... in Kenan Statium, and with Yates.
This team is different, but it isn't that different. Unless you look through rose-colored glasses, in which UNC can go undefeated by going back in time to avenge the VT loss.
Alcorn State?
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:56 — scoccaSomeone doesn't know the difference between Alcorn State and McNeese State.
Let's momentarily skip what
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:14 — gvillegatrLet's momentarily skip what will happen and talk about what has happened.
UNC's loss was a game it led 17-3 in the second half. After a combination of turnovers and penalties, the Heels ended up losing to Virginia Tech 20-17 at home.
seems to me we're leaving out a factor. hhhmmm ... what could it be.
Yates and VT
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:37 — joegiglio (author)I agree, UNC would have won the game with Yates but ...
They didn't lose because Yates didn't play in the second half. They lost because of penalties and turnovers (I realize Paulus, Yates' replacement, committed the turnovers) and the inability to run the ball.
All reasons I gave for the inability to go 11-1, including the absence of Yates.
— JPG
I agree that penalties and
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 14:36 — Anonymous (not verified)I agree that penalties and turnovers ultimately cost us the VT game, but if you consider the lack of offense after TJ got hurt and Greg had his big run, it would show a complete opposite to the offense in the first 3 quarters. All things considered, we were one errant pass in the red zone away from a potentially game tying field goal.
Yates and VT
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:24 — JPG Critic (not verified)JPG.........yea right. Yates would have likely cost us the game too.
Yates vs Sexton
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:19 — Anonymous (not verified)JPG has no clue what he is saying. Sexton hasn't seen game speed action in over 2 years. Come on. Yates played terrible last year and has faced cupcakes so far this year.
How do you know UNC wins Va Tech game with Yates?
How do you know UNC wins with Yates?
Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:50 — Dre (not verified)No one knows absolutely but you know what? I might have won the lottery if I played but I didn't, however there is something that most of us can use that helps us come out with a very likely outcome, it's called... common sense.
Most people, (V.Tech fans included) told me they were so happy that Yates went out of the game. Not that they wanted him to be seriously injured, just that he was picking V.Tech's defense apart. These are the logical reasonable V. Tech fans. V. Tech didn't consistently stop UNC's offense until he went out of the game. Even with the penalties UNC moved the ball and scored on V. Tech.
Now like I said no one knows for sure but you throw in some stats, logic and dash of common sense then you should come up with the same conclusion.
Clarify
Fri, 10/10/2008 - 14:02 — Dre (not verified)Not that it was any UNC fans that wanted Yates out... it was ABCers and V. Tech fans.
bowl
Mon, 10/06/2008 - 14:05 — tbradford82if the heels go 8-4, that would mean their conference record would end up at either 5-3 (assuming a loss to ND) or 4-4. to go to the peach bowl, they will have to win the coastal division (which is doubtful with an acc record like that) and lose the championship game.
with the record giglio mentions, the gator, champs sports, or music city bowl is what to expect.