If these players leave early for the NBA — Wake's Al-Farouq Aminu, Florida State's Solomon Alabi, Georgia Tech's Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal, UNC's Ed Davis and Virginia's Sylven Landesberg — the ACC will break into three categories in 2010-2011:
Good: Duke, FSU, Virginia Tech and UNC
Maybe: Clemson, N.C. State, Maryland and Miami
Bad: Virginia, Wake Forest, Boston College and Georgia Tech
That's four sure-fire NCAA teams and then a group of four teams that could play their way in. Seven ACC teams made the tournament in '09 and six this year. So in other words, more of the same for the ACC next year.
Starting at the top, given the pending personnel losses at Kentucky (John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins) and Kansas (Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry), and the additions at Duke, the Blue Devils will likely open the '11 season as the No. 1 team in the country.
It would qualify as a shock at this point if Singler, whose lack of quickness was exposed in his transition to the "3," left for the NBA. With Singler back, Duke surrounds him with outstanding freshman point guard Kyrie Irving, shooting guards Nolan Smith and Seth Curry and either Plumlee Brother No. 1 or No. 2.
The other Plumlee Brother, Andre Dawkins and Ryan Kelly will provide relief (and mostly size) off the bench.
If Irving is half as good as the previous Duke point guards from New Jersey (Bobby Hurley and Jason Williams), you can book your Final Four tickets in Houston now, Duke fans.
The real beauty of Duke's lineup is Curry gets to be Curry. Certainly, Mike Krzyzewski will implore the Liberty transfer to play defense, but when a player of that caliber (20.2 points per game as a freshman) can just shoot and not worry about anything else (see Wayne Ellington), that's the difference between a good team and a great team.
The rest of the "good" group is fairly self-explanatory. VT returns the ACC's best scorer, Malcolm Delaney, and a starting lineup of a team that went 10-6 in the ACC. FSU, even without Alabi and with coach Leonard Hamilton, returns an NBA prospect in forward Chris Singleton, an NBA prospect in guard Michael Snaer, a veteran point in Derwin Kitchen plus the Noles add two top-50 recruits and exiled 7-footer Jon Kreft.
As for the Heels, the addition of freshmen scorer/shooters Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock won't magically put them back in the Final Four, but it will get them back to the 10-6, 11-5 territory and squarely in the NCAA field, regardless of what happens with Larry Drew II and Kendall Marshall at the point.
The "maybes" aren't as clear cut as the "goods." Clemson will have questions without Trevor Booker but in Demontez Stitt, Andre Young, Devin Booker and Milton Jennings, the parts are there for a fourth straight NCAA trip. Tigers coach Oliver Purnell (0-6) can't win a game at the NCAA tournament but at this point he deserves credit for knowing how to get a team there.
Maryland will suffer heavy personnel losses, notably the ACC's POY in Greivis Vasquez, but with Gary Williams at coach, it's just a matter of rearranging the furniture. Freshman big Jordan Williams and sophomore Sean Mosley will be the team leaders and the Terps will find a way to win more games they're not supposed to because of both Williams' coaching acumen and the lack thereof by his peers.
N.C. State and Miami finished 11th and 12th, respectively, but each won two ACC tournament games and each has an anchor — forward Tracy Smith for State, guard Durand Scott for Miami — to build an NCAA tournament team. It will take young players getting better, and older players learning how to play with the new players, but the talent is there for both Sidney Lowe and Frank Haith to take a seat at the "grownup" table.
Wake and GT lead the "bad" group because of heavy personnel losses and suspect coaching. Tony Bennett will get it done at UVa but he's going to have to take some (more) lumps first.
That leaves BC. There's no explaining BC. The Eagles had a chance this year with four returning starters to be good. Instead, they lost inexcusable games (Harvard, Maine) early at home and then showed zero emotion in the ACC. The problem for BC is the same four players — the guts of the team — are back. In what rational realm will the same group of indifferent, yet talented players, magically put it all together?
Of course, the "rational realm" tends to change by the minute. No one had UNC in the NIT last March, so anything's possible in '11.
Comments
Expectations
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 12:43 — SurferWhatever happens, it will be fun. Hopefully the injury bug won't be so brutal on the Heels next year, but whatever the case my expectations will be guarded.
Wake
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 09:23 — jcg3The Deacs have a top 10 recruiting class (some say top 5) coming in next year. With a little luck we could be a pretty good team by February.
One things for sure.
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 12:58 — JPDOhioDino will find a way to get the least out of them.
correct ditty!!
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 13:58 — bluecat69bluecat69see KENTUCKY VS WAKE SCORE, OK, GO DUKE!!!!!!
A lot of conjecture
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 20:01 — unc098But we can count on the fact that State and Carolina are going to be better next year.
Even if Davis goes we still improve. We are winning games now without him. Lets get real, D2 is going to be the pg for the next two years. Hes showing signs of maturing and he will probably be ok by the end. Will he be a Lawson or Felton? No. But with our front court he will probably be good enough. The 2 guard position will definitely improve and can provide some zip. Hopefully the Heels stay healthy next year and can get into a rhythm that produces success. Time to go watch the Heels
NC State
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 07:43 — YAR8packHey man, I'd love to "count on the fact" State will be better next year. But I remember saying the same thing before the 2006-07 season, and where did the Pack end up after that one? The dumpster.
Hopefully the Pack will be much better next year. But, as of now, I think State should fall into the kinda-sorta-maybe category.
OK GO STATE!!!
BTW, different sport, but what the heck is up with the punter getting the boot (pun intended) from the football team. Geesh. What the heck?
Oh
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 08:46 — unc098Its your punter. You had me worried there. Is this the dude that transfered in from BC?
I don't think so
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 08:58 — JPDOhioI think this kid red shirted last year.
No word on why he was suspended that I have seen yet.
Yar8
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 08:42 — unc098The difference in this State team and the other bombs is that they play well together and support each others roles on the team. Sidney will be able to do a lot with that. It will make the transition of the newcomers, who are talented, much easier because they will understand their role and the structure is sound coming in. I see State doing very well next year.
As for the Punter. I am unaware. I have to see what happened.
Thanks Bud
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 13:08 — YAR8packI hope your future visions come true. I'd love to see NC State and unc and even dook as top-15 teams next year.
I completely agree that this team plays well with each other, and there seems to be a genuine understanding and caring within the team. Hopefully, with the addition of Harrow and maybe Cothron or Leslie, this team will return to days past.
lets not forget
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 22:05 — gvillegatrhow bad of a shooter Felton was until his senior (or last) year.
he was not all that popular b/c he was not living up to his potential either.
he gradually got better. maybe Dreww II can do the same thing???
Good observation Gville
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 08:38 — unc098Your absolutely right. Felton got a load esp. his first two years when he was thrust into a similar situation as D2.
Even Lawson was criticized for not being a better shooter until his senior year. He certainly changed that. Its a lot about confidence and maturity.
Good: .........UNC
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 18:15 — TheMambaSTRIKESOn what basis? Better, yes maybe....depending on outcome of #1.
1. Who will be leaving the program? Just the Seniors? Ed Davis to the nba? Who might transfer out of there....still an unknown.. What is Henson going to do? Did Roy sandbag him 3/4ths of the season ...keeping him on the bench to keep the NBA bird dogs in the dark ?
2. Bullock and Barnes, i'd assume, will add much needed scoring and shooting skills that this team never had. ......
3. Marshall, who was nowhere near the best PG in his own WCAC high school league...Jr sensation Quinn Cook (DeMatha) torched him and his DJO team twice. KMAR is SLOW, too slow to be an impact ACC PG......and i doubt seriously that Roy will BENCH DROO for this guy. THAT was the problem this year..and will be the problem next year......
FYI---- DOOK's back court will be loaded !!!!
Response
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 18:19 — Heels201. We can assume Ed is gone. I doubt anyone will transfer, but we'll see. Roy didn't sandbag Henson. He made a promise to him his senior year of high school that he'd play him at the 3 because that's what John saw himself playing in the NBA. Roy played him at the 3, and that didn't work out. Davis went down, and Henson played well at the 4.
2. Agreed. I hope Bullock lives up to expectations, but Barnes is pretty much a sure thing as far as upgrade goes.
3. Marshall won a state title this season, so he obviously did something right. He isn't known for his speed, but recruiting analysts have labeled him as the best passing PG in the 2010 class. Could he be Larry Drew II, Jr.? He's got some height on him and has been said to be more of a leader on the floor, so we'll see.
Dook's backcourt will be loaded, but yet again, they don't have a dominant force down low.
UNC as a "for sure"
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 17:07 — JPDOhioBased on what? Two NIT wins? Careful, JP. People might start thinking that you turning Tar Heel blue!
There is no doubt that the Tar Heels have shown some life in the NIT and have given their fans a reason to hope for a better year next year. And the talent on the team, both returning and coming in, is undeniable. But UNC hasn't proven yet that they can sustain this level of quality over more than a couple of games and freshmen are still freshmen. You don't know for sure how they are going to progress until they get there.
It could be argued (probably only by me) that the Pack showed more in the last eight or so games than UNC did. And I think State is a solid "maybe" at this point. So are the Tar Heels, although if they win the NIT Championship I would put them in the "good" category. But not yet.
Maybe it's just my bias...
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 17:17 — Heels20...but I think most are expecting the Heels to be a better team than the Pack next season. There's no denying that the Pack closed their season with more than UNC has proven, but you've got to keep in mind that if Harrison Barnes is as good as expected, he will fill a major gap in our team. Henson and Zeller have both proven that they belong on the floor, and Graves produced a lot when someone else on the team was competing for his playing time. I'm not saying we'll be back at the top next year, but I think most people should expect an NCAA bid.
INHERENT BIAS
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 17:57 — JPDOhioI mean that on a overall basis, not just you. And I am not saying it is good or bad, it just is.
Because UNC has been so good for so long, the overriding expectation is that they will return to prominence, quickly. Because State has been mediocre at best for an extended period, they don't get the benefit of the doubt. Nor should they.
So, I think I understand how JP came to his conclusion, which even he acknowledges in preliminary. I just don't think the evidence supports the conclusion, yet.
All that said, I am glad that he posted the article. It is never to early to start looking ahead (especially for those of us whose seasons are over).
A couple other potential reasons
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 18:14 — Heels20Experience: One also has to look at how many veterans each team has. Tracy Smith, Javi Gonzalez and Farnold Degand all played significant minutes the past 3 seasons (2 1/2 for Farnold) and Dennis Horner got solid minutes for 4 years. This team was pretty much right on par with a Carolina team that had Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard who each have 4 years of experience under their belts, and Will Graves who just wrapped up his 3rd season of playing, although he was suspended half a year and saw minimal time before that. Between the two teams, Tracy Smith is the best player returning, but I think Carolina returns more overall. Maybe it's just my opinion, but between the number of guys we have coming back who have seen as much time on the floor as they have, and with the recruits we have coming in, I just feel like that puts us in a position to go dancing.
Coaching: Sid has done an excellent job down the stretch this season of getting his personnel right with the system. However, his teams haven't necessarily improved in the past when expected. Whether the '07-'08 team is comparable to the '10-'11 is still up for debate, and I personally think the '10-'11 team will be much different. However, Sidney has pretty much floated around in the bottom 3 of the conference his whole career. There still haven't been any major indications that his recruiting classes will change that. Roy, on the other hand, has watched his teams progress over the past 7 years until a major (and expected) drop-off is brought about. 2004: Second Round, 2005: National Champs, 2006: Second Round, 2007: Elite 8, 2008: Final Four, 2009: National Champs. This team, although inconsistent, would likely have been in contention for an NCAA bid had Zeller and Davis never gone down. Yes, it sounds crazy, but with the 2 healthy all the way, we could have avoided a 2-point loss to GT, a 4-point loss to VT and a 4-point loss to BC in the regular season (possible 8-8 conference record) and a 4-point loss to GT in the tournament.
Most of this is just theory based off the past, but we'll obviously have to wait and see. I am glad this article was posted because this is the triangle, and biting each other's heads off over college basketball is a year-round thing in this area.
Bottom line
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 08:53 — JPDOhioRoy has proven himself over time and Sid has not, at least not yet. Fair and valid point. I would also agree that as far as having pure overall talent, UNC has more than State does.
What it is all going to come down to is this. Will they play solid, intense defense over the course of the entire season and be smart and unselfish on offense? If they do, fans in both camps will be quite happy.
Right on
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 11:29 — Heels20Most of these predictions are based off the past.
JPD
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 09:02 — unc098Staying focused on the points you made is a matter of maturity and team dedicated to their goals. Its the job of the coach to hold them to it. Seems like this team ( State ) has bought into the structure. They played some outstanding D at the end of the season. For this group of kids I will cautiously wager that they will build on the end of this years success. You have some really good kids coming in and coming back. I am interested to see how Woods progresses. He was unbelievable at times.
Next year
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 12:01 — JPDOhioMy big question for both State and UNC is whether they can sustain that focus over the course of the entire season. When you come to the end of the year, it is a lot easier to stay focused because the end is in sight and you have to win if you want to keep playing. It's a lot different in November when there are 15-20 games still to play and the sense of urgency isn't the same.
The late season showing by both teams makes it clear that both have the capability to do well. And you are absolutely correct to emphasize the maturity factor. Mature teams will overcome the inevitable slump or devastating loss and recover quickly, not allowing it become an extended losing streak. We will have to see if State or UNC or both have developed that maturity next year.
I think there are three keys for State next year:
1. They have to play intense team defense like they did to close this season. All year. If they don't, nothing else matters and they will be in the lower half of the ACC again.
2. Brown and Harrow have to live up to their billings. Javi will be the leader at guard and should do well. But he flames out every now and then and has been injury prone. Julius Mays has shown he is not the answer. The two new guys don't have to carry the team, but they have to provide solid minutes.
3. Scott Wood does not get the credit he deserves for his all around basketball savvy. The report on the USF game mentioned how he didn't score, but did not say anything about the fact that he had the most rebounds that game. He is a solid player, but he needs to score consistently from long range. My guess is that Sid is going to have multiple plays designed to get him open shots. If he hits them consistently, it will open things up for Smith and Howell inside and they will wreak havoc.
The elements are there for both State and UNC to have really good seasons next year. (Although I think Mike Davis' prediction of a Final Four berth for UNC is a little over-the-top at this point). It will be very interesting to watch these teams develop over the course of next season.
JPD
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 20:44 — unc098Good points about the beginning of the season and the end.
I actually think that both teams will have that carryover in the next season. How consistent they will be is another ?.
I suspect if both teams stay healthy they may show unevenness over the course of the regular season but will show stronger towards the end like they did this year except with improvement. I agree saying UNC will be dancing in the final 4 next year is quite a stretch. I think having a winning season in the conference and going to the NCAA will be enough of a goal for now. Of course the media and fan base will have higher expectations. In that regard there is more pressure on Carolina than State.
I am pretty high on Scott Woods and Smith. I thing they are going to light it up next year. Javi will become solid and there is no reason why he shouldn't improve.
The Heels need to return everyone to continue to improve. Its obvious that they can win without Davis and if he goes no big loss. I think Zeller, if he stays healthy, could have a great year.
I am feeling optimistic. I think Duke is in the drivers seat for the next 2 years, but it will all shift. I do believe that Sid needs to have a significantly better year next year to keep the "wolves" at bay.
Good points
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 21:00 — Heels20I think that if all expected returnees opt to stay, then we'll see improvement from both programs. This is looking way ahead, but I could see both teams improving to second round/sweet sixteen teams. It would definitely be a stretch to expect either one to reach the Final Four.
I agree with you that Dook is in the driver's seat next season, but I really think we will fight them for the top in '11-'12. So many things can and will happen between now and then, but with some of the recruits coming in for both squads, I think both Carolina and Dook will compete for a national title. Think about these line-ups:
Heels: PG Drew II, Sr.; SG Reggie Bullock, So.; SF Harrison Barnes, So.; PF John Henson, Jr.; C Tyler Zeller, Sr.
Bench: McAdoo, Marshall, Strickland, McDonald, Hairston
Dook: PG Kyrie Irving, So.; SG Seth Curry, Jr.; SF Michael Gbinije, Fr.; PF Miles Plumlee, Sr.; C Mason Plumlee, Jr.
Bench: Dawkins, Kelly
Who knows how accurate these predictions are, but it is fun to think about.
I'm absolutely confident...
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 16:59 — UNC1998in UNC's improvement next year. With or without Davis they should be better. If Barnes is all he's cracked up to be he'll start. I think Strickland deserves to start next year. I'm not going to comment on PG. I just think the frontcourt will be stacked, and help is on it's way for the backcourt.
If a frog had wings...
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 13:36 — heelsno1This is silly conjecture...the 2010 season is not over...the list of players who may leave early is uncertain...and the possible impact of incoming talent remains to be proven.
Next Season
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 04:14 — LetsGoPittheelsno1: Great point about this season not over yet, but, hey, that's the new America. You know, how they start hyping the Hiesman candidates before Labor Day, or how the 2012 presidential race started last year?
Anyway, some silly thoughts:
Duke is going to be so deep, they should be rated really good.
Maryland losing Vasquez won't be able to duplicate this year's success. Nor, do I think VaTech can repeat their magic, although they should still make NCAA's, finally.
If Hewitt leaves GaTech, they would be a big question mark.
And speaking of leaving, why doesn't BC leave and go back to the BigEast? Wouldn't Temple, a basketball school, be a better fit for the ACC?
letsgoPitt
Wed, 03/24/2010 - 08:55 — unc098See your point on BC. Maybe we can trade for a really good football school. BC certainly has taken a nose dive since their inclusion in the ACC.
WVU
Fri, 03/26/2010 - 11:37 — willncsuWould rather have WVU than anyone. They are clearly the best fit.
silly conjecture
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 13:58 — JPDOhioIsn't that the lifeblood of the blogosphere?
So what's the problem?
Leslie
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 13:32 — jpg (author)Would up the ante for State, but he's not there yet.
I'll do a proper pre-preview in June that has all the particulars. Just wanted to throw a few ideas out there.
— JPG
Leslie or Cothron
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 16:07 — bradleyb123There's plenty of reason to believe that State will end up with either CJ Leslie or Luke Cothron. If CJL chooses Kentucky, it's been said that Luke would have NC State back at the top of his list. Luke's problem is he doesn't foresee 35 minutes per game in his "would-be" future at NC State. Personally, I think he's waiting for CJL's decision before he makes his own.
State certainly won't get BOTH players. But there's a very good chance we end up with one of them.
Cothron
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 16:49 — JPDOhioIf he does end up coming, he may be in for a rude awakening.
I don't follow the high school or AAU exploits of these kids like some do, so I don't know where he is projected to play in college. But, assuming he is a 4 or 5, he will have some stiff competition in Smith, Howell and Painter (whose work ethic has been praised by Sid). And we could see some improvement in Vandenberg, whose 7 foot stature at least makes him a role player in the right situations.
I realize that you can expect only so much maturity from a high school kid, but I don't think he handled this very well. He comes across as a selfish, me first guy, that won't fit with the chemistry this team has developed and needs to have to succeed. Even without Leslie in the mix, playing time might be hard to come by in his first year.
Luke Cothron
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 16:57 — Heels20was already the only incoming freshman that I didn't think would make an instant impact. If he really is selfish, he'll never see the floor. His playing style is very similar to Howell, but Howell is bigger and better. With 4 guys who would already be ahead of Cothron on the depth chart, he'd have to play the 3 in order to see much PT as a freshman. Even then, that would only mean he'd have to be more consistent with his jump shot. He has decent range considering his size and age, but he'll need to be more consistent if he wants to adjust to find a place in Sid's offense.
By the way, off topic, but congratulations on Juston Burris' commitment to the 2011 class for football. He's a hard worker and will be a great fit for State, as well as an excellent pick-up for the secondary.
Good article
Tue, 03/23/2010 - 13:13 — Heels20It's scary to think about what Dook could do if Singler opts to come back. I've heard rumors that he's going to be gone, but I agree that he has nothing to lose by coming back. Losing Scheyer will hurt, but if Irving can step in and effectively run the point, then this will be the best team in the ACC.
I still question how good we'll be next year. Losing Deon and Marcus will be addition by subtraction, and we can pretty much all agree that Harrison Barnes will be an instant-impact type of player. An NCAA tournament bid should be expected, and I think the scoring abilities of McDonald and Bullock will be deciding factors of how far we can go. This team still hasn't quite found its identity, so there will be bumps in the road.
Wish State could have gotten a little more attention here. If CJ Leslie commits, they could compete for a conference title. It sounds like a stretch, but if Javi continues to improve, Harrow lives up to the hype, Lorenzo Brown and Scott Wood provide consistent outside scoring and Tracy Smith shows up as himself, then State will have something it hasn't had since 2006: A fully-equipped team. And as far as talent goes, it will be much better than what we have seen before.