Don't blame Olympics for Duke's slide

Mike Krzyzewski's announcement Tuesday that he will coach the U.S. national team for three more years will be unpopular with some Duke fans.

Some blame Duke's recent decline on Krzyzewski's involvement with Team USA, which he coached to the Olympic gold medal last summer in Beijing.

It's logical to assume that Duke suffers if Krzyzewski is distracted by his "other" job – restoring the United States as the pre-eminent power in international basketball.

But a closer look at Duke’s shortcomings over the last few seasons shows that recruiting failures are the cause of the Blue Devils' failure to advance beyond the regional semifinals in the last five NCAA Tournaments.

Krzyzewski's involvement with the Olympic team probably doesn't have much of an impact on those recruiting shortcomings.

Rival North Carolina's rejuvenation under coach Roy Williams has been a much bigger factor in Duke’s modest recent slide.
The Blue Devils seemed to land virtually every recruit they wanted in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when Bill Guthridge and then Matt Doherty were running a lurching North Carolina program.

When you can sign Elton Brand, Shane Battier, William Avery, Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Corey Maggette and Carlos Boozer within a three-year period, you're going to dominate college basketball even though some of those players will leave early for the pros.

But under Williams, North Carolina now is getting players – Brandan Wright is an obvious example – who might have gone to Duke if the Tar Heels were coached by, say, Doherty.

Most importantly, Williams has done a better job than Krzyzewski of developing multiple options in recruiting.
Williams was bitterly disappointed to lose frontcourt targets Samardo Samuels to Louisville and Delvon Roe to Michigan State in the Class of 2008.

But Williams still landed an elite big man in Ed Davis, who played a key supporting role as a freshman in the team's run to the 2009 NCAA title.
Krzyzewski also missed on a coveted post player in the Class of 2008 when Greg Monroe picked Georgetown.

The difference is, the big guys the Blue Devils signed – Miles Plumlee and Olek Czyz – didn't come close to matching the production of Davis as freshmen.

One part of Krzyzewski's recruiting strategy puts him at a disadvantage in developing multiple options. Krzyzewski has said in the past that he prefers not to sign Duke's full allotment of 13 scholarship players because that leaves many talented players on the bench and headed for transfer if they don't get much playing time.

So Duke suffers more than North Carolina on key recruiting misses because Williams is recruiting for a deeper bench and rotates more players. And Krzyzewski has missed on a lot of key targets – Monroe, Patrick Patterson, John Wall and Kenny Boynton in particular – in the last three classes.

Again, this subtle difference in program-building strategies has little or nothing to do with Krzyzewski's involvement with the Olympic team. But it has everything to do with North Carolina participating in three of the last five Final Fours with two NCAA titles while Duke has failed to reach any of those Final Fours.

Duke's class of 2010 recruiting may indicate a shift in strategy on Krzyzewski's part. The Blue Devils already have a commitment from forward Josh Hairston plus backcourt commitments from Andre Dawkins and Tyler Thornton.

There's a good chance Dawkins will report to campus a year early to help Duke fill a gaping void at guard created by Elliot Williams' unexpected transfer.

And Duke still is chasing multiple targets in the class, particularly at point guard, where Brandon Knight and Kyrie Irving both hold scholarship offers from the Blue Devils, according to scout.com.

A monster class of 2010 haul could quickly halt Duke fans' angst over their coach's dual coaching responsibilities.

Roy Williams doesn't appear to be leaving North Carolina anytime soon, so the Tar Heels will remain an obstacle for Duke.
But if Krzyzewski can get the right talent in place, coaching the national team shouldn’t hinder the Blue Devils.