All five in-state teams entered the season with big bowl hopes, in some cases bigger than others, but on Columbus Day only Wake Forest looks like slam-dunk for college football's bloated postseason.
The biggest problem for the Triangle contingent is a 6-6 record isn't good enough, thanks to the scheduling of two I-AA teams each.
Here's what the North Carolina teams have in front of them to qualify for a bowl:
Wake Forest
Record: 4-2
Need: Two more wins
Should win (1): @ Navy
Winnable (3): @ Clemson, FSU, @ Duke
Likely loss (2): Miami, @ GT
Bottom line: Between the winnable games and Navy, Wake should find two more wins and finish at least 6-6. Winning the Atlantic Division will depend on beating Miami at home and finding a road win (Duke?).
Duke
Record: 3-3
Need: Four more wins
Should win (1): Maryland
Winnable (3): @ UVa, @ UNC, Wake Forest
Likely loss (2): GT, @ Miami
Bottom line: Duke could win the next three — Maryland, UVa, UNC — but still only go 6-6. Poor scheduling really cost the Blue Devils because 6-6 gets it done in most years, but not when you put in a built-in obstacle like the N.C. Central game.
And that's not a knock on the idea of the two Durham schools playing but since N.C. Central is classified as a transitional Division I team, the NCAA does not count that win towards Duke's bowl eligibility.
The Devils have to go 5-3 against the ACC (with the other win over Army) to qualify for a bowl.
The Devils beat Virginia last year, should have beaten Wake the last three years and usually give UNC their "Super Bowl" treatment but that's not going to be enough for their first bowl trip since 1994.
North Carolina
Record: 4-2
Need: Three more wins
Should win (0): none
Winnable (5): FSU, Duke, Miami, @ BC, @ N.C. State
Likely loss (1): @ VT
Bottom line: You'd think beating three teams with a combined ACC record of 1-6 wouldn't be too much to ask. UNC's easiest route is beating FSU, Duke and State, the aforementioned 1-6 teams (and that's Duke's win, by the way).
Nothing has been easy for UNC, especially on offense, but those are pretty good odds at finishing 7-5 and getting to a bowl.
N.C. State
Record: 3-3
Need: Four more wins
Should win (0): none
Winnable (5): @ BC, @ FSU, Maryland, Clemson, UNC
Likely loss (1): @ VT
Bottom line: The loss to Duke means State has to steal a game somewhere else. The way State played defense Saturday, that's only possible against Maryland... maybe.
With a little improvement, and pride, they can find three wins, but probably not four. That equals 6-6 and no bowl.
ECU
Record: 3-3
Need: Three more wins
Should win (2): Rice, UAB
Winnable (2): @ Memphis, Southern Miss
Likely loss (2): VT, @ Tulsa
Bottom line: Win the games they should and split with Memphis and Southern Miss and ECU's 6-6. With the right combination of Army losses, that puts ECU opposite an ACC team in the EagleBank Bowl in DC.
It's not the BCS, or a C-USA title, but it would be an entertaining ending to a disappointing season.
Comments
Tidy Bowl
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 17:39 — omegamanSeveral of these teams will qualify for the Tidy Bowl; after all anyone with a 6-6 record is just a "mop up" selection for one of the many lesser bowls (i.e., anything other than the original 8 bowl games).
"Bowling" now is not about rewarding teams for a great year (2 or more losses is not a great year) but rather about making money for the sponsors of the bowl. In several cases in recent years some bowl teams have come up on the minus side of the ledger after the final tally.
Also
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 16:05 — jblues1969Also, UNC-VT has been a very close game in recent years. In fact, UNC has had late leads in the most recent games, only to fall short after a key injury two years running.
Been to Lane Stadium lately?
Tue, 10/13/2009 - 00:08 — lil576Wishful thinking jblues. Just ask BC what close games the last couple of years mean with this Hokie Team.
Seems to me
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 16:06 — jblues1969Seems to me like UNC would be more likely to beat BC than FSU, so I'd call the easiest path BC-Duke-State.
Senior day
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 16:11 — joegiglio (author)BC's 4-0 in its final home game since joining the ACC.
— JPG
Wow.
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 14:05 — tbrwfuIn what alternate universe is UNC more likely to beat Miami than Wake Forest? The bias of the NC press shows yet again.
Couple scores for ya
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 15:03 — joegiglio (author)2007: UNC 33, Miami 27
2008: UNC 28, Miami 24
2008: Miami 16, Wake 10
That's not bias, it's called "recent history," I can provide Wake's results form 2004 and 2005 against Miami if those don't paint a clear enough picture.
— JPG
2008: Wake Forest 12, FSU
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 15:51 — chrisl682008: Wake Forest 12, FSU 3
2007: Wake Forest 24, FSU 21
2006: Wake Forest 30, FSU 0
2004: FSU 38, UNC 16
2003: FSU 37, UNC 0
2002: FSU 40, UNC 14
These UNC scores are clearly as relevant as the 2004 and 2005 Wake Miami scores.
Seems like selective use of recent history
fsu??
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 17:39 — gvillegatrwhat does FSU have to do with the UNC-MIAMI-WFU triangle??
JPG is comparing apples to apples here. he "ain't" talking oranges.
If past performance is
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 17:55 — chrisl68If past performance is relevant, shouldn't a 4-2 (2-1) WFU team playing a 2-4 (0-3) FSU team at home be a "should win" when WFU has won the past 3 meetings?
because
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 18:05 — gvillegatrthat was not brought up, by tbrwfu, in the intial post. it was posed about Miami-UNC-WFU. you can't just come in and change the subject just b/c. why can't you see this??
Uh
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 16:02 — joegiglio (author)Unless John Bunting's coming back, don't see how that's relevant. I compared Wake-Miami-UNC since 2007.
Heck, Wake could win, why not, but I think out of 100 people not affiliated with Wake or Miami, 95 would say Miami will beat Wake.
— JPG
I would say that 95 out of
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 17:33 — chrisl68I would say that 95 out of 100 people outisde of UNC would say that Miami would beat UNC.
They outscored Miami both years and their offense is terrible this year.
Sometimes it seems like you go out of your way to come up with reasons why the triangle teams are better than Wake Forest.
Alot of people said the
Tue, 10/13/2009 - 00:25 — chrismg1Alot of people said the same thing in October of 2004 about a Miami team that was arguably better than this one and a Carolina team that was arguably worse.
Not puttin anyone on upset alert, just providing perspective.
Correction
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 14:01 — michaelwmitchell1If UNC playing Miami in Chapel Hill is "winnable" for UNC, then it is at least so for WFU when they play Miami in Winston-Salem.
Best in state?
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 13:23 — blitzballUnfortunately, TOB's proclamation of "best in state" has come back to bite him. Look up Wake's record during the Grobe era (2002 - Present); Wake vs. UNC-CH 3-2 Wake vs. NCSU 4-3 Wake vs. Duke 7-0 Wake vs. ECU 4-0 State can retire those "State Champion" shirts state fans have been wearing. WF doesn't get much attention, but the numbers speak for themselves.
By the way, the past three years, WF has played Ole Miss (w), Nebraska twice (l), Stanford (w). These are not patsies.
Duke
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 12:36 — SurferJPG,
Just curious re: Duke. With Army and State counting, don't they only need four more wins, instead of five, to be bowl eligible? i.e. total of six. I know Central does not count and they lost to Richmond, so that is not a factor.
Duke
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 13:34 — joegiglio (author)Fixed.
They need to go 5-3 in the ACC.
— JPG
bowl hopes
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 11:24 — leernealyou reap what you sow baby!!!!! i wrote earlier in the season that scheduling 2 non bcs schools was insanity but nooooooooooooooo, state knows their whipped fans will sell out anything and they dont bother to schedule a full slate of major college games. duke is trying to build a winning attitude by scheduling winnable games and i see their point. it unfortunately will bite them in the end. carolina is pathetic. no offense, oh, i'm sorry that's the problem, no offense! once again jim grobe and wake have shown the way. they only play one non bcs school but the trick is who they play in the bcs column. they DONT overschedule, the next few years feature a service academy and some high iq schools, vandy and tulane to mention a couple. prior planning, triangle schools and maybe YOU wont be home for the holidays.
You are a moron
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 14:14 — willncsuIts not our fault ECU and tennessee backed out of games with us.
god, can i get some cheese
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 01:52 — leernealgod, can i get some cheese with that whine, imbecile!? not counting acc teams there are STILL over 100 division 1 football teams that you COULD have scheduled besides gardner webb and st ann's school for wayward girls.
Easier said than done
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 09:46 — JPDOhioWhen an unexpected opening shows up in the schedule, it is almost impossible to find a BCS level replacement without giving away the store. However, 1-AA schools will change their plans for one reason-money.
So it's a win-win: for the home team, as they keep a home game on the schedule with all the revenue that goes with it, and the 1-AA team gets a nice payday that helps fund football and other athletic programs.
Sure, it sucks for the fans and the purists hate it because it inflates won-loss records. But it has been a long time since either of those things mattered. So it is not about "whining". It is reality.
the problem isnt what the
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 12:18 — leernealthe problem isnt what the "purists" think, but the reality of having to win seven games to go bowling because you're playing 2 cupcakes instead of one. that cancels out any win win for the home team cause they eventually lose out on extra practice days along with a bowl game.
Yep, Nothing like the
Tue, 10/13/2009 - 01:45 — tjfooseYep,
Nothing like the uninformed proudly proclaiming their ignorance to anyone who will listen.
But wasn't it cute how he tried to hide it by feigning wisdom w/ a reference to a supposed previous prophetic statement. Ahhhhh, that's just precious.
doesnt take a genius to
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 01:56 — leernealdoesnt take a genius to figure out that scheduling reform school u and heartbreak ridge wasnt going to bite them in the posterior, bozo. as for being uninformed, i'll let your sheepskin from moo u be your life long passport to success.
triangle teams bowl hopes
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 11:06 — tarheelyankThe N&O blew so much smoke on NCSU at the beginning of the season and yesterday Tudor really took them down. Maybe TOB ain't a miracle man and Wilson is not the best QB ever in wolfie red. Time will tell and if RW leaves after this season to play MLB. the honeymoon may be over for the wolfpack faithful.
Best in the State
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 10:51 — SurferNot to kick anybody while they are down. But, this is why I had such an issue with TOB's statement last year, "We have the best Program in the State". Yes, they beat the other 4 teams in the State (didn't play ASU) and perhaps they had the best team at that point in time. But, to have the best Program, show me some results over time.
Absolutely correct.
Tue, 10/13/2009 - 01:49 — tjfooseAbsolutely correct. The best team in the state this year is probably Wake or Duke...
Wow. Let that sit for a while.
Navy
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 10:51 — nick_witcraftI beg to differ that Wake @ Navy is a "should win". Navy is likely headed for its 5th or 6th straight bowl and took Ohio State to the brink. Should be categorized as "winnable" If at Wake, perhaps it could be called a "should win"
Wake-Navy
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 11:12 — joegiglio (author)Wake's playing Navy for the fourth time in three years, any element of Navy's offense being surprise is gone, which is part of the reason the OSU game was so close (being the opener was another).
Wake should win that game.
— JPG