BCS preview: Four by five

A twist to the Top 20: 

• Five who could disappear
• Five who could surprise
• Five who could win it all
• Five who could be calling Chuck Neinas

Michigan: Not sure how Lloyd Carr managed to go 9-4 with the No. 1 overall pick, the Big Ten’s leading rusher and the Big Ten’s leading receiver. Carr retired and didn’t leave new coach Rich Rodriguez with any of the aforementioned talent.

Combine the personnel turnover with the transition to Rodriguez’s option offense and the Wolverines could be looking at Matt Doherty-esque streak-busting season of both their 33 straight bowl trips and 40 straight winning seasons.

Michigan's schedule poster proclaims: The tradition continues. Are you sure?

Hawaii: Aloha, Colt Brennan. Aloha, June Jones. Aloha, Hawaii football.

Boise State: It has been a great run by the Broncos but the bowl loss to ECU may have been a harbinger for the plucky little program that could. Most of the Fiesta Bowl holdovers, save for Ian Johnson, are gone on offense and the defense was never very good.

Arkansas: There’s a reason Butch Davis, Tommy Bowden and Jim Grobe wouldn’t touch the Walton family’s money with a 10-foot pole. There isn’t a strong enough natural recruiting base for Arkansas to consistently compete in the SEC and the Hogs already struck gold by landing once-in-a-generation star in Darren McFadden.

Oregon: The Ducks folded like a U.S. Nike factory after QB Dennis Dixon’s injury. With Dixon, and RB Jonathan Stewart, in the NFL, why are the Ducks ranked in the top 25?

Ohio State: The Buckeyes are rapidly turning into the Atlanta Braves of college football. They’re playing for the whole ball of wax every year but have only won one title. Well, bad news OSU-haters, all but three starters return from an 11-2 team and the Bucks have added the No. 1 recruit in the country, water-walking QB Terrelle Pryor.

Plus, if you haven’t figured it out yet, OSU has a BCS advantage because the Big Ten does not play a conference title game.

USC: The personnel losses to the NFL would wound a mortal program, and still might be the Trojans’ undoing (that and Yahoo!), but Pete Carroll has lost NFL talent before and he has still managed to post consecutive seasons of 11-2, 12-1, 13-0, 12-1, 11-2 and 11-2.

Given a downturn in the Pac-10, and the Trojans’ defense, another title for the Men of Troy is in play.

Georgia: While LSU lost late and still played for the SEC and national titles, Georgia lost early and missed out on both. A four-game stretch away from the Hedges from Oct. 25 to Nov. 29, will determine if the Dawgs can keep their focus long enough to survive the SEC East.

Oklahoma: The Sooners are fighting Ohio State for BCS ineptitude. Bob Stoops has lost four straight BCS bowls, including two title games, since winning the 2000 national crown. Give Stoops credit for bringing his team back, year after year. What if Ohio State and Oklahoma met in the BCS? The response from the SEC and its fans would be worth it.

Florida: The Gators took 10 years off between Steve Spurrier’s national title and Urban Meyer’s. Heisman winner Tim Tebow can sell jean shorts to gullible Gainesville teens and cure AIDS in Africa but he doesn’t have that many years of college eligibility to wait until 2016 for another title.

The Gators’ schedule is much more favorable than Georgia’s. Plus, they are eager to repay their rivals for the 42-30 loss in last year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

Florida State: Coaching changes take longer than an offseason to take effect. Everyone that was predicting a Seminole revival after the additions of Jimbo Fisher, Rick Trickett and Chuck Amato to the coaching staff has soured on FSU after a 7-6 season. Even the ACC writers are down on the Noles, who for the first time since joining the league were not picked to win either the division or the conference title.

Bobby Bowden may have worn a leather helmet and played against Red Grange but if there’s one thing the old man can still do it’s motivate. The talent’s still there. The wins will return in ‘08.

Michigan State: The Spartans have a smart coach (Mark Dantonio) and a good quarterback (Brian Hoyer). In college football, that equation adds up to a good season. After going 7-6 in Dantonio’s first season, the Spartans take another step towards the top of the Big Ten.

Ole Miss: Ed Orgeron couldn’t coach but he could recruit. Houston Nutt has an itchy text-messaging trigger finger but he can coach. Combine Nutt’s know-how with Orgeron’s talent and the Rebels, who were close in ‘07, should breakthrough with Texas transfer Jevan Snead at quarterback.

Utah: Boise State and Hawaii crashed the BCS the past two seasons but the Utes invented the BCS remix, winning the Fiesta Bowl in 2004. They could make a return BCS appearance if they can supplant BYU as the best Mountain West Conference team.

Washington: Charlie Weis took what would have been Ty Willingham’s fourth Notre Dame team to the Fiesta Bowl. This is Willingham’s fourth Washington team and he’ll coach them in a season with his job on the line. Lucky for the North Carolina native he has quarterback Jake Locker, the West Coast’s version of Tim Tebow.

Syracuse: The Orange’s administration is firmly behind Greg Robinson and his 7-28, nevermind two of those wins came against Buffalo.

Iowa: It’s one thing to lose with dignity, it’s entirely another story, one which Kirk Ferentz is writing, to lose while your players are populating the Iowa state penal system.

Arizona: Bob Stoops won a national title in his second season at Oklahoma. Younger brother Mike hasn’t been to a bowl game in four years at Arizona. No. 5 might be his last without dramatic improvement from 5-7.

Penn State: There’s a rule — after you’ve been a head coach for 43 years, you’re legally required to retire. At least, that’s what Penn State’s AD will try to sell Joe Paterno.

Louisville: The Cards went from 12-1 to 6-6 under Steve Kragthorpe. He’s not entirely to blame. In an effort to clean up Louisville’s program, the Cards are down by 20 scholarship players since Bobby Petrino left. Kragthorpe might decide the job is not worth the headache.