Elliot Williams' decision to transfer from Duke on Wednesday suddenly breaks the ACC race wide open.
The Blue Devils will still be in the conversation to win the league, of course, because they have an edge in experience. But the loss of Williams, an athletic wing who only averaged 4.2 points per game, erodes their defensive abilities and overall quickness.
Assuredly, the Duke fan at-large feels for Williams. It's undoubtedly a bad break for the teenager and his family, but you also can't help but wince at what could have been for Duke in 2010.
Let's enter fantasyland, shall we? Admittedly, it's a dangerous venture, but given the precedent at UNC to hang on to stars for three and four years, it's not that outlandish to think both Gerald Henderson and John Wall could have been in Duke's lineup in October.
What could have been:
Starters
G John Wall
G Jon Scheyer
G Gerald Henderson
F Kyle Singler
F Brian Zoubek
Bench
G Elliot Williams
G Nolan Smith
F Ryan Kelly
F Lance Thomas
F Miles Plumlee
F Mason Plumlee
Whoa. Now take out Henderson or Wall, and it's still a Final Four team. Take out both and they still win the ACC. Take out Henderson, Wall and Williams, and Mike Krzyzewski's looking at:
Starters
G Smith
G Scheyer
G/F Singler
F Thomas
F Zoubek
Bench
G/F Kelly
F Miles Plumlee
F Mason Plumlee
Ouch. Still good but where are the guards? Without Williams, both Singler and Kelly will have to play the perimeter, which is fine for 3-point shooting purposes. But what about defense? You might actually see Coach K use a lot of 2-3 zone because there are no traditional perimeter reserves.
Either way, Jon Scheyer's going to shatter the ACC record for minutes-played this coming season.
And when it comes to the chase for the ACC title, Duke's suddenly in the same boat as UNC, Boston College or even Georgia Tech.
By the way, Duke hasn't been to the Final Four since 2004, a span of five years. Coach K has never gone more than five years between Final Four appearances at Duke.
Cue the Tar Heel fans, Laker conspiracy theorists and Duke haters.
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Predictions
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 13:50 — willncsuRegular season - UNC
ACC Tournament - Maryland
My Predictions
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 19:41 — tarheel73Next season the Heels will win their 2,000th game and achieve an average of more than 20 wins per season for the past 100 years of playing collegiate basketball. With 18 Final Four appearances and five NCAA titles that span six decades, UNC is demonstrably the best college basketball program in the country. Thier Dukie and ACC cousins should be humble.
full of yourself
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 08:11 — bluecattarhole73, have u ever heard of kentucky?go duke!!!!!!
Yeah we have.....but it's been awhile
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 10:29 — pammy1Kentucky is sort of like Dook.......a team from yesteryear.....oh....except I will say that now that they have Calipari, their reputation as a stand-up program will fall by the wayside as well......
melvinfunk
Mon, 06/29/2009 - 15:33 — bluecati read what she said , and it is totally wrong, ky will not fall by the wayside ever, they will be in the hunt for the big trophy next year, as far as stand up programs and calipari, ky and calipari has never left a program on 3 yrs probation, like ol roy. . go duke!!!!!!!!!!!!
calipari
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 11:17 — bluecatsammy1,i think i read where ky had a good recruting class, i doubt if they fall by the wayside, calipari has never left a team on 3 yrs. probation , that was ol roy.Go DUKE!!!!!!!!
As usual - - -
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 14:54 — melvinfurdyou didn't read what Pammy said and you responded to something other than what she said. You're not REALLY a Dook alum, student or grad, are you?
SLOW
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 17:11 — bluecatMELVINFUNK, REMEMBER I WENT TO UNC FOR 2 YEARS, WHICH MEANS THAT I AM A LITTLE BEHIND, BUT NOW THAT I AM AT DUKE I AM CATCHING UP, PLEASE BARE WITH ME, OK GOOD BUDDY!! GO DUKE!!
Say what?????
Fri, 06/26/2009 - 10:37 — pammy1okay....so obviously IF you were actually at UNC you didn't attend class......at least not the ENGLISH class.......so .....why didn't you stay?? Oh....I know....the quality of education just wasn't up to your standards......and now I'm supposed to believe that you are a student at Duke "catching up"........uh huh.......yeah right...... you won't live long enough to catch up........lololololololololol
duke-harvard of the south
Sat, 06/27/2009 - 15:42 — bluecatsammy1, u need to calm down, or u will end up like michael jackson,i am catching up now, unc is just one step above the cow college. go duke!!!!!!!!!
Two possibilities
Fri, 06/26/2009 - 13:08 — JPDOhioThe only way bluecat got into Duke is if he is somehow related to Coach K.
Or he is fooling all of us and really goes to the Randolph and Mortimer Duke Reform School for Troubled Young Adults.
jdpohioooo
Sat, 06/27/2009 - 15:46 — bluecatwhere have u been, i thought u were thru with me??i coach k is great, and he will kick unc a-- next yr. write it down,go duke!!!!!!!!!!
I AM calm
Sat, 06/27/2009 - 19:14 — pammy1I AM calm bluecat........you don't want to see me really get fired up but don't worry because your editorials are hardly worth the effort.......oh, and the name is PAMMY not SAMMY......what's the matter?....think a woman isn't capable of making a legitimate SPORTS argument......I've probably been watching basketball since before you graced this earth with your presence.........to risk sounding redundant following my colleagues on this sight.....Bluecat......you're an idiot......plain and simple....
take your pills
Mon, 06/29/2009 - 15:44 — bluecatsammy 1, u need to get back on your pills , u know how you gals get when u dont take your hormone pills, obviously u have missed several doses, also take your blood pressure pills, or u are going to pop like michael, calm down and say i love duke 10 times, and then have a big drink, ok, and thanks for the compliment, u are rapidly becoming my best friend. go duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Prediction
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 18:51 — ghuskethThe only thing given about next year is that it will be a down year for the conference. With so many talented upperclassmen leaving, the chase of the title will likely go down to the wire. I just hope that some teams grow exponentially during the year so that we don't embarrass ourselves in the NCAA tourney again...
Elliott Williams
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 18:00 — rbl1944I assume the young man is transferring because of the serious illness of his mother. If that is correct, we need to wish him and his family the best, no matter what shade of blue we prefer. Mine happens to be Carolina blue, but my sympathy goes out to him and the Duke family. Some issues transcend sports rivalries.
Turning to next season, Duke will still be good. Anyone expecting them to fall out the back door will be sorely disappointed. I do think, however, that the race is wide open, although I suspect it comes down to Carolina and Duke. Both teams have great coaches and rosters brimming with McDonald's All Americans. No other team can match those advantages.
No other team?
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 19:57 — Heels20No other team...except Boston College, FSU, VT and Maryland. BC was good last year and returns 4 starters. FSU has very solid big men and a great freshman guard coming in. VT still has Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. Maryland only lost Dave Neal, and even though it's unlikely they will win the conference, they can definitely beat anyone in the conference.
Dook is looking at a very ugly situation. They have only two scholarship guards and no great big men.
Carolina should be the favorite, but nothing is set in stone. They are the favorite ASSUMING that Larry Drew improves, Marcus Ginyard is the same defender he was before his injury, Deon Thompson and Ed Davis stay healthy and the freshmen have a smooth transition from high school to college. That's a lot to assume.
Teams like Maryland and Boston College are already set on how they will run things and who will be starting. UNC and Dook still have to figure all of that out.
Coach K won't let Dook slip out of the top 5 in the ACC, but it will take a miracle for them to win a regular season title.
K Schmoozer
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 16:24 — heelsno1JPG rivals Mike Patrick and Dukie Vitale in his zeal for K.
This is yet another totally absurd article.
Make up your mind
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 16:59 — joegiglio (author)I hate Duke
I hate UNC
I hate State.
Wah. Get real and read more carefully.
— JPG
Oatmeal
Fri, 06/26/2009 - 13:34 — heelsno1JPG-
Reading your articles while having oatmeal for breakfast produces these resullts...you end up with little on your stomach and absolutely nothing on your mind!
jpg
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 08:14 — bluecatYES!all of the above.
JPG, Your bias is amazing.
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 16:16 — SagsurJPG,
Your bias is amazing. Just acknowledge it. How do you not move UNC to #1. They may have the most dominant front court in country. Granted their guard play will take a hit from this year but they will be the best in the ACC, which will be down next year. When will someone tell the truth about Duke. The aura is gone. Look at the players that have left early or transferred in recent years that didn't have too. Duke will among the least athletic teams in the league. Singler and Kelly at guard. Come on. Who will they cover. I will believe K playing zone most of the time when I see it. If you are going to play fantasy with Duke why don't you do it with everyone else who loses people early. Duke has not adjiusted to the changing landscape. K is living his nightmare, he has become Dean Smith
You'll have to wait
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 17:01 — joegiglio (author)You know I have picked UNC three years in a row, I can't hate them that much — and third in '06 when everyone else was down on them.
Don't know who I'm going to pick No. 1. Have to look at the skeds and re-evaluate with the new changes at Duke and Clemson.
— JPG
easy
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 08:23 — bluecatthis one is easy, ncs and sid will fool a lot of people this year.ha!ha.thought u guys might need a joke today, go duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's a set up
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 00:37 — JPDOhioYou're not fooling me, JP. You are setting us up for one of your surprise choices that have become your trademark.
You know who your pick is going to be-- your beloved Wolfpack! Let me be the first to congratulate you on your vision. You will be the toast of sports punditry everywhere when the season is over and you are the only one who predicted Sid's breakout season.
More seriously
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 00:43 — JPDOhioBest wishes to Elliot Williams and his family. Hope and pray that the medical problems are resolved completely and as quickly as possible.
League Race
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 14:33 — belairbakersAll of the sudden Duke is not nearly as good as the were before the recent departures. If teams can shut down either Scheyer or Singler then they have scoring issues. I think Duke could end up finishing anywhere from 2 to 5 in the ACC with all of the changes that have occurred. This might be a real interesting league race with UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Maryland vying for the top spots in the league. Can we please stop talking about a 2-14, last place Georgia Tech team being Top 4 this year.
JPG
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 12:33 — Heels20Does this change your predictions for who finishes at the top of the ACC?
Yes
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 12:35 — joegiglio (author)There will be a "third look" at the ACC (coming in July). My pick won't be UNC, though.
— JPG
duke is no1
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 08:34 — bluecatjpg we are all holding our breath and burnning up with desire to know your july pick, this and the 4th july parades is what i live for!go duke!!!!!!!!!!
lol
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 12:55 — gvillegatrwhy will there be a third look if UNC won't be your pre season #1 pick? They were #2, I belive, in your last "look."
not that I did (of course I didnt), but any Williams lovers will have to concede UNC is the better team now that he won't be around.
Thanks
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 12:47 — TheBigGuyAs a Tar Heel fan let me be the first to say "Thank you" for that prediction.
You're welcome
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 13:09 — joegiglio (author)But I'm going to be in the minority.
One (emphasis on one, Roy Williams being a good coach and Hbro being so good are two more) of the reasons the '06 team was so successful was they wanted to prove people wrong. They're not going to have that motivation as the preseason favorite.
— JPG
Who knows?
Thu, 06/25/2009 - 08:12 — pammy1Who knows what will happen and who will live up to or exceed expectations at this point? We do know that "ole Roy" is going to do his usual great job of coaching. As for the rest, how do we know how well UNC's (or anyone else's) freshmen are going to perform? I don't recall hearing accolades about Blake Griffin to the extent that he performed last year......UNC may not have the motivation of 2006 but you J.P. may have just provided them the motivation for 2009 with your picks.....thanks guy!
sammy1
Mon, 06/29/2009 - 15:55 — bluecatIt could be because...
Wed, 06/24/2009 - 14:35 — Heels20It's so hard to imagine the ACC champion wearing any color other than blue. With 4 returning starters, BC will have an experienced team, but is suffering a huge loss with the depature of Tyrese Rice. VT welcomes back Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen, but lost a big-time scorer in AD Vassallo. Maryland brings back Greivis Vasquez and a good recruit in Jordan Williams. Their inconsistency in past years is the main thing they will have to overcome this year. Wake will not be as bad as people expect, as they still bring back Aminu, Ish Smith and a deep post game. Georgia Tech lucked out by Lawal's decision to come back. They also welcome in the best recruit in the country in Derrick Favors, but they lack the leadership to be a contender for a conference title. FSU could be a team to look out for with Solomon Alabi in the post and extremely talented incoming freshman Michael Snaer. It seems like every year FSU is led by one big-time player every year (Tim Pickett, Von Wafer, Toney Douglass). Snaer is next in line. Finally, Clemson shows off a bright spot in Trevor Booker. Unfortunately, that's their only bright spot aside from true freshman forward Milton Jennings. Lack of guard play will keep them out of the title hunt. Last, but not...actually, last and least, Dook will still manage to finish in the top half of the ACC, most likely the top 4. As you (JPG) emphasized, they're not deep enough to enjoy any margin for error. Yes, they will play tough defense, but Scheyer and Singler will have to be perfect every night to keep Dook in the Top 10. Because the 3 ball is never perfect, that won't happen.
UNC is looking to show off the best frontcourt in the conference, starting with Deon Thompson and Ed Davis. If Marcus Ginyard can be the same player he was before his injury, UNC gets a boost on D. Ty Lawson is a player who cannot and will not be replaced overnight. Guardplay will be the main question mark, but between Larry Drew, Leslie McDonald, Dexter Strickland and Ginyard, the Heels will look to find someone who can consistently get the job done. Will Graves will provide athleticism and highly anticipated freshman John Henson will look to make an instant impact.
There's no guarantee of success, especially for such a young basketball team. However, I think the Heels will most likely be the most complete team in the conference. I don't believe in a curse or a jinx (except when it comes to NC State athletics), so I'm putting the Heels at the top and supporting them no matter what happens.